Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, November 28.  Churchill Downs is hosting its unofficial annual juvenile day, with 12 races, all for 2yo’s in various categories, capped off by the Golden Rod G2 for fillies and Kentucky Jockey Club G2 for open 2yo’s.  

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Over 140 juveniles are initially entered in what will be a great racing day.  Connections will not only see how their 2yo’s measure up to the competition, but also evaluate their liking to Churchill Downs, both ultimately to see if they should steer back to Churchill for the first Saturday in May.

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We’re about to break down some of the key races, so grab today’s free grid and follow along.

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The Kentucky Jockey Club G2 at about 6pm features 9 horses with one coupled entry, 3 of which have their own in entries in the Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 1, which is still open until Sunday.  The 3 also ran in the BC Juvenile G1 earlier this month:  Keepmeinmind 3^rd, King Fury 7^th, and Sittin On Go 9^th.

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Not surprisingly, Keepmeinmind is the heavy morning line favorite, coming off by far his best career race, but he also had a smoking hot pace to run at from behind.  As you can see, there’s not a lot of speed in this race.  A pair of E6’s doesn’t usually dictate a torrid pace.

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In fact, Swill with the inside post and top EP rating could be a contender in deep stretch if they don’t pressurize him.  But it looks to set up best for King Fury, who got shuffled around in the BCJ and finished poorly.  Before that he won the Street Sense, beating two others in this field.

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After the obvious favorite, there are a lot of possibilities here, and it will come down to which horse steps up in class, what riders make the smart trip and pace calls, and who has the best trip. 

Best guess:   4 7 2 6 1/1a.  LSS 6. Definitely use the coupled entry, you get 2 for 1.

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The Golden Rod G2 at about 5PM has a similar theme, in that there is a very obvious first choice, the heavy morning line favorite, Simply Ravishing who is top 10 in the AFH, then it will come down to a lot of the same things mentioned above.  The big difference is there’s a lot of speed in this field of 10.

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Simply Ravishing 1-1 is the sole rep from the BCJF, where she finished 4^th after chasing around a moderate pace 2 lengths back after a bobbled start.  Today she should get a nice honest pace up front and does her best running late.  But you can see there’s only 1 filly with less than 5 Quirin points.

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That would be my 2^nd choice, and what will likely be the 2^nd public choice, Clairiere, so far a 1-race wonder, but it was a good win, and it tied her for 2^nd best PF in the field, coming from 5 lengths back to break maiden first asking.

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After that, it’s hard not to like Coach, who’s undefeated in 3, and Travel Column, also tied for the 2^nd best PF, albeit at sprint.  Both are at single digits and trained by Brad Cox, whose barn has been doing very well in Kentucky.  Farsighted 15-1 is my first long shot special and could surprise at this distance.  Lady Lilly also looks strong coming in at 15-1 ML. 

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Prediction:  8 6 3 5 4 1     LSS 4 1

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Race 3 is an OCM75kn1x starting at about 2PM and although the field is shortened to 7 after a scratch, it’s still quite interesting.  Scarred is the ML favorite and has an individual entry in Pool 1 after breaking maiden first out for Steve Asmussen, and ranks #9 in the initial Derby Double Dozen released this week.

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2^nd ML choice Hidden Stash broke maiden 3^rd try in impressive fashion, setting the high PF in this field while improving in the increased distance of 8.5f for Victoria Oliver.  Camp Hope won at first ask for Kenny McPeek at 8.5f here at Churchill, followed by a disastrous BCJ that we don’t know the reason for.  After that I like Cousin Larry to complete the super for Larry Jones in his first mile contest.

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The rest of the races have some nice big fields with lots of possibilities, and some first time starters sprinkled in of course, so it could be a good day for some long shot specials.  Pay attention to how the track plays out, win some big bucks, and most of all, enjoy the juvenile racing!

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Here are the full slate of picks including long shots specials (LSS).  

R1:  5 6 10 4 9 12                LSS 4 9 12

R2:  10 7                LSS 1 12 3 6

R3:  6 4 8 3           LSS 2

R4:  8 7 2 3           LSS 5 6

R5:  2 4 14 7         LSS  8 9 1

R6:  8 1 6 4 10 12                LSS 1 4 10

R7:  1 4 7 2 3 6     LSS 2 3 6

R8:  4 5 10 9 2 6                  LSS 10

R9:  8 6 3 5 4 1     LSS 4 1

R10:  10 1 11 2 6 4              LSS 1 11 2 4 3      SLSS 7

R11:  4 7 2 6 1/1A              LSS 6

R12:  9 7 10 11    LSS 6 3 4 5

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Get the Grid for all your favorite tracks right here.

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