Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, May 14, 2022.  Belmont Park has its unofficial Belmont Stakes prep today, mostly for those 3yo’s that weren’t in the Kentucky Derby field and don’t plan on running in the Preakness next weekend. 5 graded stakes in all including the Manhattan G1 on turf right before the Pan G2.

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Belmont has 11 races scheduled with about 80 competitors after morning scratches. Racing begins at 1PM with the first stakes race, the Vagrancy G3 slated to begin at 2:05PM for race 3.  Weather in Elmont is warm and cloudy with rain likely from 3:30-5:30PM. 

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We’ll break down the graded stakes a bit and point out some good long shot specials. First you’ll want to grab today’s free Belmont Grid to follow along and then make some picks of your own.

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R2 1:34ET 6f T Clm 35000n3l 3 UP 

This race begins the early Pick 4 and you would be remiss to not have 1, 2, and 7 anchoring the verticals.  The truth is it’s kind of wide open and the kind of race I like to wheel and deal for the super.  A case can be made for just about all of the long shots, but particularly the longest #10 switching to turf at 20-1.

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R3 2:05ET 6.5f D VagrncyH-G3 4 UP FM

Don’t bet on a 5 horse race with a legit 4-5 favorite, but include her and either 4 and/or 2 as the backup filly in the verticals if you’re not singling.

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R4 2:34ET 6f t Alw 50000s 3 UP FM

The favorite 8 looks very strong cutting back to 1-turn but the 3-1 odds will likely decrease. In a turf sprint I normally like the 4 rules horse, which in this case is #12, and the top LP #11 at 10-1.  Then we also have top EP #1 at 8-1.  #2 will try to go gate to wire and will if they let her.

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R5 3:06ET 6f D Runhappy-G3 4 UP 

Another short field of 5 not good for betting.  It would be nice to single the lone frontrunner and favorite #1, but 4-rules #3 will be pressing right behind him ready to pounce.  #2 looks like he will need another furlong unless suddenly an unscheduled speed duel develops.

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R8 4:46ET 11f t ManOWar-G1 4 UP 

The late Pick 4 begins here with the G1 on Belmont’s famous inner turf, which you can tell by the lower case ‘t’ denoted in the race.  I think Belmont is the only North American track with 2 turf courses, correct me if I’m wrong. 

It would be nice to just go with the two favorites in the verticals and certainly they’re deserving, especially since Gufo finished 2^nd by a nose in this race last year. Yibir won the BC Turf in his last USA race.

But the truth is, 11f or not, there is barely a semblance of speed in this.  Longest shot So High at 30-1 ML, had his best career PF in this race last year, finishing only 2 back.  More likely is Abaan at 9-2, who has won stakes races longer than this on the front end.

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R9 5:19ET 9f D PeterPan-G3 3 YO 

Alas, the Peter Pan Prep! For a field of only 8, this one sure is wide open. I’d like to start off by tossing a couple of them but I’m more likely to wheel and deal.  If it does rain significantly before the Pan and we end up with some form of mud, toss Cooke Creek.

Otherwise, it does look like it will be won by a mid to late pack runner, like Golden Glider at 4-1, who has been in above his head the last few races, all graded stakes, but 5 in this field haven’t even attempted stakes races yet.

Western River 6-1 ML finally got a solid pace to run at last out and won handily.

Complete Agenda 8-1 you would like to toss, but consider that he broke maiden last out at 9f after stumbling at the start, Jose Ortiz on him and Pletcher behind him. That makes him easily the best long shot.

Prediction:  3 5 6 2 4 1

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R10 5:50ET 8.5f t Beaugay-G3 4 UP FM

Nothing against the even money favorite, but she hasn’t raced since November. I have to go with some speed in a 8.5f race with barely any speed.

Prediction:  4 6 1 3.  Note that most of those are LSS.

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R11 6:21ET 7f T Alw 80000n1x 3 UP FM

In the nightcap and final race in all verticals including the late Pick 4 and Pick 6, it’s hard to not go with the two that will likely be the top 2 favorites, 9 and 2. 

But 7f on turf is a great time to add top LP, and believe it or not, that is dirt racer #1 at 15-1.  True, she sucked on turf before, but at that point in time, she sucked in general. Recently she’s been ITM in 3 straight stakes races.

#11 Autumn Glory looks likely to succeed at one turn in her 2022 debut.

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You can get the Preakness Grid, including a weekend special for Pimlico including Friday and Saturday, and the Grid for all your favorite tracks and races including Belmont, right here. So check that out before you leave.

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