Weekend Winners Club

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Friday, June 26, 2020.  It’s been over two months since the last Derby Double Dozen and One, otherwise known as the Top 25, but Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 5 opens today and runs all weekend, so this is the time to do it!  That’s right, the Derby Top 25 and Grid PP for the Futures Pool all in one!

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You will note that several of the Top 25, 8 to be exact, don’t appear as an individual entry in the Futures Pool, which has 22 named entries, and the opposite is true as well.  That’s because the rankings here are independent based on my analysis and not that of anyone else. 

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These rankings can give you an advantage in betting the pool, as you can see some of the highly ranked horses have nice odds in the pool.  And 5 of them aren’t in the pool, so you would have to get the field which you might get decent odds on now that Tiz The Law won the Belmont Stakes.

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This time, there was major upheaval in the top 5 for the first time ever, because 3 of the top 5 from last time were declared out of the Derby. Charlatan, Nadal, and Maxfield were all top 5 and won’t be running for the roses.

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First, get the Grid PP for the pool right here, opening/downloading the link below, so you can follow along. To make it easier, we put the Top 25 rank inside the Grid for you so it’s like a complete guide.

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Next, here is the Derby Double Dozen Top 25.  Shockingly, Tiz The Law is now #1, as he should be on any list that is taken seriously, having now won 3 Grade 1 races, which two more than any other in the field, and only losing once in his career, on a sloppy track, perhaps the only chink in his armor.

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Kentucky Derby Double Dozen June 26, 2020

Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Line	Fin	In Last Race	Date
1	Tiz the Law	Constitution	Barclay Tagg	API	1st	Belmont Stakes G1	06-20
2	Honor A.P.	Honor Code	John Shirreffs	API	1st	Santa Anita Derby G1	06-06
3	Dr Post	Quality Road	Todd Pletcher	RAN	2nd	Belmont Stakes G1	06-20
5	Café Pharoah	American Pharoah	Hori Noriyuki	RAN	1st	Santa Anita Derby G1	06-21
4	Authentic	Into Mischief	Bob Baffert	SCT	2nd	Unicorn G3 (JPN)	06-06
6	Max Player	Honor Code	Linda Rice	API	3rd	Belmont Stakes G1	06-20
7	Finnick the Fierce	Dialed In	Hernandez Rey	API	3rd	2Arkansas Derby G1	05-02
8	Excession	Union Rags	Steve Asmussen	ND	2nd	Rebel G2	03-14
9	Gouverneur Morris	Constitution	Todd Pletcher	API	3rd	1Arkansas Derby G1	05-02
10	Basin	Liam's Map	Steve Asmussen	RAN	2nd	1Arkansas Derby G1	05-02
11	Art Collector	Bernardini	Thomas Drury	API	1st	OCM100K CD	06-13
12	Sole Volante	Court Vision	Peter Eurton	RAN	6th	Belmont Stakes G1	06-20
13	NY Traffic	Cross Traffic	Saffie Joseph	RAN	2nd	Matt Winn G3	05-23
14	Winning Impression	Paynter	Dallas Stewart	ND	4th	1Arkansas Derby G1	05-02
15	Pneumatic	Uncle Mo	Steve Asmussen	IE	4th	Belmont Stakes G1	06-20
16	Ajaaweed	Curlin	Kiaran McLaughlin	RAN	3rd	Sam F Davis G3	02-08
17	King Guillermo	Uncle Mo	Juan Carlos Avila	IE	2nd	2Arkansas Derby G1	05-02
18	Independence Hall	Constitution	Michael Trombetta	API	5th	Florida Derby G1	03-28
19	Enforceable	Tapit	Mark Casse	API	5th	Louisiana Derby G2	03-21
20	Cezanne	Curlin	Bob Baffert	RAN	1st	MSW50k SA	06-06
21	Mr. Big News	Giant's Causeway	Bill Calhoun	SCT	1st	Oaklawn Stakes 100k	04-11
22	Money Moves	Candy Ride	Todd Pletcher	RAN	1st	OCM75k GP	03-27
23	Anneau d'Or	Medaglia d'Oro	Blaine Wright	ND	5th	1Arkansas Derby G1	05-02
24	Uncle Chuck	Uncle Mo	Bob Baffert	IE	1st	MSW50k SA	06-12
25	Ete Indien	Summer Front	Patrick Biancone	ND	4th	OCM100k GP	06-10

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Good luck with the Futures Pool this weekend, and make sure you get the Grid of the Week with analysis, which will be for Churchill Downs big race day June 27 with two Breeders‘ Cup berths up for grabs.

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And as always, you can get the Grid for all the major tracks and races right here.

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Thursday, June 18, 2020.  Belmont Park has a great weekday card today with 10 races including a nice little stakes race for fillies and mares.  Two days before the Big Day with Grade 1 races the Belmont Stakes, Acorn, Jaipur, and Woody Stephens, it’s a good time to take a preview at how the track is playing out.

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R2:  5 3 1 9 4        LSS 5 3

R3:  5 6 7 4 8        LSS 7 8

R4:  1 3 8 6 4        LSS 4

R5:  9 8 4 3 1        LSS 8 1

R6:  11 10 4 1 2 3                LSS 11 10 4 1

R7:  1 6 5 4

R8:  12 4 6 1 9 5                  LSS 6 5

R9:  5 2 4 3           LSS 4

R10:  11 6 4 1 7 3 10          LSS 4 1 3 10

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You can get the Grid for all the races at Belmont Friday and Saturday here.

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Wednesday, June 17 2020.  The Belmont Stakes post draw was held today and the field increased back to 10 with the surprise entry of Fore Left by Doug O’neill for Reddam Racing.  Tiz the Law is favored as deserved and expected, with Sole Volante, Dr Post and Tap It To Win competing for 2^nd choice honors. Here’s how the post draw shaped up: 

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Meet the field and connections for this year’s Belmont Stakes before any race day scratches:

Post	Horse	Odds	Style	Sire	Trainer	Jockey
1	Tap It To Win	6	EP6	Tapit	Casse Mark	John Velazquez
2	Sole Volante	4.5	S0	Karakontie	Biancone Patrick	Luca Panici
3	Max Player	15	P3	Honor Code	Rice Linda	Joel Rosario
4	Modernist	15	EP5	Uncle Mo	Mott Bill	Junior Alvarado
5	Farmington Road	15	S0	Quality Road	Pletcher Todd	Javier Castellano
6	Fore Left	30	E7	Twirling Candy	Doug O’neill	Jose Ortiz
7	Jungle Runner	50	P0	Candy Ride	Asmussen Steve	Reylu Gutierrez
8	Tiz The Law	1.2	EP5	Constitution	Tagg Barclay	Manny Franco
9	Dr Post	5	P5	Quality Road	Pletcher Todd	Irad Ortiz Jr
10	Pneumatic	8	EP5	Uncle Mo	Asmussen Steve	Ricardo Santana Jr

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The addition of Fore Left is interesting because it changes the dynamic of the race by adding a front runner to the early speed scenario. Whereas before, Tap It To Win was about to have it his own way up front, now it looks like he’ll have at least one that’s not just chasing him around waiting for him to tire.  Doug O is probably thinking Fore Left can set a sleeper lead.  Get the Grid here to follow along:

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Tiz the Law’s chances of winning aren’t impacted much and he will likely be 2 lengths behind the leader as usual, in perfect striking position.  His post draw of 8 is likely more of a problem since 2-3 midpack runners could stack up inside and push him wide, but he should be in good shape and deliver his usual strong closing kick.  The Sackatoga / Barclay Tagg trainee is top in Power and 2^nd in LP, and leads in Kentucky Derby Points.

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Whenever you add a front runner to the mix, it can only help the plodders and other late runners. In this case, Patrick Biancone and Reeves Racing had to be happy to see the addition, since Sole Volante is the big closer in the field, with top LP and Stamina ratings as well as 2^nd in Power in the Grid.  With a legit pace up front he’s very dangerous, and they had to be even happier with the 2 post to save ground.

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Farmington Road is another one that should benefit and Pletcher was no doubt also happy to see some speed added to the field.  He made good on early runners in the Oaklawn Stakes for a strong 2^nd, but flattened last out in the Arkansas Derby, likely because he was up too close too early to a heated pace set by Nadal.  I would expect Javier to correct that issue this time and just let him plod early as usual.

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The versatile Max Player has found himself in mid pack not far behind the lead the past couple races, both wins, but neither contest had anywhere near a fast pace.  He’ll probably be content to sit in 7^th early, ahead of the 3 late runners and not too far from midpack.  Linda Rice won’t be having Rosario send him towards the lead before half a mile in. 

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The most negatively affected by the added speedster is Tap It To Win, whose 3 races at a mile or more have resulted in two last place finishes, and the win last out where he was able to get the early lead.  Pneumatic and Modernist could also be adversely affected since they run close to the lead, and with the outside post for Pneumatic he may be sent up close early.

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So the predictions for final finishing order have changed from last time we posted them. 

Tiz the Law 6-5

Sole Volante 9-2

Max Player 15-1

Dr Post 5-1

Tap It To Win 6-1

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The weather outlook for this week is for a slight chance of rain but no major precipitation is on schedule, so weather should not be much of a factor and the track should be very fast and play well to late runners. Remember this year the Stakes is only 9f so it’s like a typical Kentucky Derby prep.

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You can get the Grid for all the races at Belmont Park Friday and Saturday for a great price this year.

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June 15, 2020.  The Belmont Stakes field has been reduced to 9 at this time, as connections brave enough to take on Tiz The Law are diminishing.  The favorite has now become a heavy favorite and it will be the powerful G1 Florida Derby champion’s race to win or lose.

LATEST UPDATED BELMONT PRECAP HERE.

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June 15, 2020.  The Belmont Stakes field has been reduced to 9 at this time, as connections brave enough to take on Tiz The Law are diminishing.  The favorite has now become a heavy favorite and it will be the powerful G1 Florida Derby champion’s race to win or lose.

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Meet the field:

Horse	Odds	Style	Sire	Trainer
Dr Post	10	P5	Quality Road	Pletcher Todd A
Farmington Road	20	S0	Quality Road	Pletcher Todd A
Jungle Runner	30	P0	Candy Ride	Asmussen Steven M
Max Player	15	P3	Honor Code	Rice Linda
Modernist	15	EP5	Uncle Mo	Mott William I
Pneumatic	8	EP5	Uncle Mo	Asmussen Steven M
Sole Volante	4.5	S0	Karakontie	Biancone Patrick L
Tap It To Win	8	EP6	Tapit	Casse Mark
Tiz The Law	1	EP5	Constitution	Tagg Barclay

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The amount of early speed in the field has been greatly reduced with the defections of Charlatan and Shivaree.. Now there are only 2 that have ever led a race at 1^st call:  Tap It To Win and Modernist.  Pneumatic almost led at 1C last out in the Matt Winn but didn’t get it until half a mile in on a slow pace. Get the Grid here to follow along.

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Tap It To Win led all the way last out, announcing his presence with authority in an allowance here at Belmont early this month.  The ridgling is now 2 for 2 this year after an awful 2yo campaign ending with last place finishes in both his stakes races.  He will want the lead and will be tough to catch for any.

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Pneumatic, Modernist, Dr. Post, and Tiz The Law will all be close behind him pressing the pace, but I doubt any one of them will want the early lead if Tap It To Win runs in his usual front running style.  Thus the predicted pacesetter should put up another strong effort and hold on for a piece.

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Tiz The Law has a great habit of finding himself 2 lengths behind the lead at 1C every time regardless of rider, track or location, so he should be in great position again.  He’s now 4 of 5 with 3 graded stakes wins including the Champagne G1 here at Belmont.  His only loss was by 2 lengths on a sloppy Churchill Downs surface.  

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Of the others that will be pressing, Dr Post looks the most promising, not as much because he won his first stakes race last out at Gulfstream, but putting up a serious performance in breaking his maiden before that.  Pneumatic and Modernist may finish ITM just by virtue of being well placed behind a slow pace.

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Sole Volante is the best late runner in the field and as such has put up great performances every time. His worst career race was the Tampa Derby where he was well behind a dawdling pace early and finished 4 back but good enough for 2^nd.  Unfortunately, he may get another dawdling pace this time, but will find himself in the money anyway. 

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Max Player hasn’t raced since winning the Withers G3 at Aqueduct in February.  Extrapolating his 3 race improvement, he should be a big factor in this Belmont and is currently the super sleeper of the field.

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Latest predicted order of finish: 

Tiz The Law 1-1

Tap It To Win 8-1

Dr Post 6-1

Sole Volante 4-1

Max Player 12-1

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The odds are estimates from other sites but official odds will be posted on Wednesday after the post draw at noon, so stay tuned right here.

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The amount of early speed in the field has been greatly reduced with the defections of Charlatan and Shivaree.. Now there are only 2 that have ever led a race at 1^st call:  Tap It To Win and Modernist.  Pneumatic almost led at 1C last out in the Matt Winn but didn’t get it until half a mile in on a slow pace. See the Grid here to follow along.

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Tap It To Win led all the way last out, announcing his presence with authority in an allowance here at Belmont early this month.  The ridgling is now 2 for 2 this year after an awful 2yo campaign ending with last place finishes in both his stakes races.  He will want the lead and will be tough to catch for any.

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Pneumatic, Modernist, Dr. Post, and Tiz The Law will all be close behind him pressing the pace, but I doubt any one of them will want the early lead if Tap It To Win runs in his usual front running style.  Thus the predicted pacesetter should put up another strong effort and hold on for a piece.

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Tiz The Law has a great habit of finding himself 2 lengths behind the lead at 1C every time regardless of rider, track or location, so he should be in great position again.  He’s now 4 of 5 with 3 graded stakes wins including the Champagne G1 here at Belmont.  His only loss was by 2 lengths on a sloppy Churchill Downs surface.  

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Of the others that will be pressing, Dr Post looks the most promising, not as much because he won his first stakes race last out at Gulfstream, but putting up a serious performance in breaking his maiden before that.  Pneumatic and Modernist may finish ITM just by virtue of being well placed behind a slow pace.

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Sole Volante is the best late runner in the field and as such has put up great performances every time. His worst career race was the Tampa Derby where he was well behind a dawdling pace early and finished 4 back but good enough for 2^nd.  Unfortunately, he may get another dawdling pace this time, but will find himself in the money anyway. 

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Max Player hasn’t raced since winning the Withers G3 at Aqueduct in February.  Extrapolating his 3 race improvement, he should be a big factor in this Belmont and is currently the super sleeper of the field.

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Latest predicted order of finish: 

Tiz The Law 1-1

Tap It To Win 8-1

Dr Post 6-1

Sole Volante 4-1

Max Player 12-1

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The odds are estimates from other sites but official odds will be posted on Wednesday after the post draw at noon, so stay tuned right here.

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You can get the Grid for all the stakes racing at Belmont Park Friday and Saturday June 19-20 right here.

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Saturday, June 13, Belmont Park hosts a Breeders Cup Challenge Race today:  the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps for a ticket to the Breeders Cup Distaff G1 at Keeneland the first weekend in November.  Aside from that, 100 horses are running in 10 races after morning scratches, with competitive fields and purses.

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The G1 Phipps is the 2^nd shortest field of the day with only 6 fillies and mares competing at 8.5f on the dirt, but is not short on talent.  All of the runners except She’s a Julie look ready to take on the two favorites Point of Honor and Ollie’s Candy.  But high LP belongs to Golden Award so watch out.

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The rest of the picks below are for recreational purposes, unless you desire to use them to make some Big Bucks at Belmont today.  In that case, they’re for your health and welfare.  Keep an eye out for the long shot specials (LSS) and the picks are listed in order of predicted finish.  

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The conditions at Belmont today are fast and firm, with the weather outlook sunny and lukewarm with almost no chance of rain, so it will be a great day for racing on dirt and grass.  First grab the free Grid provided today to follow along.

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R1 1:15ET 6f t Md 40000 3 UP:  8 10 13 4 5 12 11 LSS 13 3 4 12 11                  Good maiden race for betting

R2 1:50ET 8.5f T Clm 25000 3 UP:  7 11 4 1 6 2 5  LSS 6 2 5

R3 2:23ET 6.5f D MSW 3 UP FM 64000:  1 2         Field of 5 too short for betting

R4 2:55ET 6f t Md 40000 3 UP:  4 2 5 1 12 7 0        LSS 2 5 9

R5 3:27ET 8.5f D OClm 40000n2x 3 UP:  9 8 6 7 2 5 4         LSS 9 6 2 5

R6 3:59ET 6f t Clm 32000 3 UP:  4 8 3 2 9 6 13       LSS 3 2  13

R7 4:32ET 8f T MSW 3 UP FM 6400:  :  10 2 6 7 4 3 11 1A LSS 6 7 4 11 1

R8 5:04ET 6f D Alw 56000n1x 3 UP FM:  9 7 2 5 6 1 12       LSS 2 5 6 1 12

R9 5:36ET 8.5f D OPhipps-G1 4 UP FM:  5 6 2 1

R10 6:08ET 8f T Alw 50000s 3 UP FM :  2 3 9 7 6 8 10         LSS 9 7 8 10

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I counted a lot of LSS’s so that means a lot of these races are very competitive and should be good for wagering.  Of course after the scratches a lot of those morning line odds will come down and only half of the LSS’s will be still be long shots, but that’s how it is before races start.

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You can get The Grid for all the major US tracks and stakes races right here and get great long shot specials yourself at every track every race day.

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Thursday, June 11.  Belmont Park has another big weekday continuing their summer meet, with 10 races including the Flat Out Stakes.  The 11 furlong bout for a $80k purse will be contested by Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston, the favorite, and some great long shot specials listed below.

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R1 1:15ET 6f D Md 40000 3 UP : 8 4 1 2 LSS 8

R2 1:50ET 6.5f D Clm 50000n3l 3 UP:  3 4 6 7 5 8 LSS  5 8 1 2

R3 2:23ET 6.5f D Clm 25000n2l 3 UP:  4 1 8 6 2 7 LSS 8

R4 2:55ET 8.5f D MSW 3 UP  64000:  2 7 8 6 4 1  LSS 4 1

R5 3:27ET 8.5f D Alw 66000n1x 3 YO F: short field

R6 3:59ET 7f T Clm 35000n3l 3 UP FM :  (1 3) 12 11 8 9 2 5 (7)       LSS 12 11 9 2       MTO’s in ()

R7 4:32ET 8.5f D Alw 56000n1x 3 UP:  5 8 4 3 7    LSS 8 7

R8 5:04ET 10f t Alw 66000n1x 3 UP:  7 10 3 2 4 11               LSS 3 11 1

R9 5:36ET 11f D FlatOut80k 4 UP:  7 6 3 4 9 2       LSS 7 6 3

R10 6:08ET 8f T Md 40000 3 UP FM:  11 9 3 (15 16) 7 3 12               LSS 11 9 12

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In the Flat Out Stakes race 9, it would be easy to pick Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston and the 2^nd choice Adventist, who’s coming off a win in the Bernardini Stakes just half a furlong shorter in Feb.  But the horse who was 2^nd in that is also the only speed in a race devoid of speed.  Bluegrascat’s Smile is a great value at 15-1 and may have the lead to himself most of the way. 

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Expert 10-1 has not been an EP runner recently but he does have the 2^nd highest EP figure in the Grid, so that makes him dangerous, despite coming off a poor outing at a mile last out.  Moretti is the only other semblance of an early runner at 8-1 and has top EP in the field so he’s a good long shot also.  Obviously not all of these will fill out the super and at least one won’t fire, that’s how it goes.

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After that I look for Sir Winston, Adventist, and Rocketry, 3 great late runners to compete for pieces of the superfecta.  One thing is for sure, if they dawdle around up front, they won’t be lollygagging 10 lengths back and one of these may in fact press the pace.  So it’s a good idea to box or mix and match these 6 that I mentioned for some good payouts.

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You can get The Grid for every race day at Belmont Park and all other major North American tracks at this link.

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June 6, 2020.  Santa Anita is finally holding their Derby and Oaks two months late this year, as well as the Hollywood Gold Cup and a few other stakes races included turf runs for 3yo’s.  Yes, the short fields are back in business at SA, with the average stakes field size 6 and the smallest field: 4 fillies in the Oaks. Jackpot Pick 6 carryover is $613k.

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So why are we getting so excited? Because it’s the SA Derby for crying out loud.  It may be only a field of 7, but they’re 7 of the best 3yo steeds you can find, including the maiden and the other 2 who haven’t run in a stakes race yet.  Get the Grid on the free link here to follow along. Scratches done.

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Who’s supposed to win? That’s a silly question.  It’s Santa Anita so Baffert is supposed to win.  Authentic is the favorite and Bob will try to prove he’s the real deal by going gate to wire in a 3^rd straight graded stakes race.  He’ll probably add a little juice to ensure a comfortable ride, you know, people.

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The next most likely contender is the 2^nd favorite Honor AP with top LP, who last out ran around the track trying to catch Authentic and got 2^nd in the San Felipe.  But they will both have to contend with a new sheriff in town, or at least one who’s gunning for the job, Shooters Shoot trained by Eurton.

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Shooters Shoot took 5 times to break his maiden but kept improving, and the 4^th try out lost only to Charlatan.  Since then he’s won both, including setting some serious fractions at Oaklawn to hold off the talented Blackberry Wine.  This E8 who has top EP is especially troublesome for Authentic, who has had it easily his own way up front in all 3 career races.

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Mostly all the others will hope for this scenario so they can hang behind the pace and wait for it to collapse.  Anneau D’or will again try to regain last year’s form, when he finished 2^nd in the BC Juvenile G1 here at Santa Anita, and again narrowly missed in the Los Al Futurity G2.  It appears California might be the best spot for him.

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Rushie is a early pace presser who is usually in good striking position, but the newcomer I like the best is Friar’s Road, the maiden who finished 2^nd to Shooters Shoot when he broke thru.  Friar’s Road continued to rapidly improve last out, losing by 1 while delivering a great late run at 9f for Mike McCarthy.

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Santa Anita Predicted order of finish with morning lines:

Authentic 4-5

Honor AP 9-5

Friar’s Road 20-1               *LSS alert.

Shooters Shoot 8-1

Anneau D’or 15-1

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In the SA Oaks, the short field will also have to contend with Baffert, who in this one has the longest priced filly and looks like doesn’t have a good chance to win.  The top filly is Swiss Skydiver at 6-5 who has rattled off 2 straight graded wins. Speech has also put up some good numbers including a 2^nd G3 finish. 

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In the Hollywood Gold Cup G1, the field of 6 there are 3 virtual co favorites, including yes Baffert’s Improbable, 5^th in last year’s Kentucky Derby and 5^th in the BC Dirt Mile.  Last out he was a strong 2^nd in the ungraded Oaklawn Mile.

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Sadler’s Higher Power was 5^th in this one last year before putting it all together for a win in the Pacific Classic G1 and then 3^rd in the BC Classic.  This year he opened with a dismal outing in the Pegasus World Cup G1 finishing last in January. 

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The third co favorite is speedster Midcourt, who is running a strong campaign this year, winning the San Pasqual G2 and 3^rd in the Big Cap G1 in March.  He will have company on the front end by Brown Storm, but passed him last out. He has been training in Socal since then for John Shirreffs. . 

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Tenfold has some class and finished 6^th in the Pegasus this year, following that up with 4^th in the New Orleans G2.  Steve Asmussen is again hoping for heated pace to run for this late runner, but looks like once again he won’t get it.

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The wild card in this contest is Parsimony, who trained well here last year breaking maiden at 6f before shipping to Meydan where he finished 4^th and 1^st in two 10f stakes races.  Doug O’neill will see how he stacks up against Grade 1 company in the US. 

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Predicted finish: 

Midcourt 2-1

Higher Power 9-5

Improbable 2-1

Tenfold 6-1.

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R1 3:30ET 8f T FrnsValtnB100k 3 UP FM :  6 5 1 3 2           LSS 3

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R2 4:01ET 5f D MSW 2 YO  50000:  4 6 2 3

R3 4:31ET 6.5f D OClm 40000n1x 3 UP:  4 1 5 2

R4 5:01ET 5.5f T DesertCdeB75k 3 YO:  6 2 3 4

R5 5:32ET 8.5f D SAOaks-G2 3 YO F: 1 3 2

R6 6:03ET 6.5f D MSW 3 UP  5000:  1 2 4 5           LSS 3

R7 6:34ET 8f T CrystlWtrB100k 3 UP:  6 7 5 3 8     LSS 8

R8 7:09ET 9f D SADerby-G1 3 YO:   7 6 1 4 3        LSS 1 4 3

R9 7:42ET 9f T CinemaB150k 3 YO:  7 1 3 6 lss 4

R10 8:12ET 10f D GoldCup-G1 3 UP :  2 3 5 6

R11 8:42ET 6.5f D OClm 20000n1x 3 UP FM:  6 3 7 4 9      LSS 2

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As usual, to get the Grid for all the major tracks and races including Belmont, Churchill, Gulfstream, Golden Gate, Tampa, etc, click here.

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June 3, 2020.  The Belmont Stakes has been scheduled for June 20, a typical date for the race.  But everything about it is atypical this month.  For one, there has been no Kentucky Derby; secondly there was no Preakness Stakes; and thirdly, the distance has been reduced to 9 furlongs, vastly different from the 12 furlongs that it has been run at since 1926.   

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Latest Belmont Precaps and analysis here.

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So what does that mean for this year?  Primarily, it means the Belmont Stakes is another Kentucky Derby Prep race, the prep with the highest point values ever assigned: 150 for the winner, 60-30-15 for the also-rans.  So the winner and runner up of the Belmont this year will both automatically get into the Kentucky Derby.  And the stakes have been raised such that those horses having 40-50 points may be on the fence and need to do more.

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The Belmont is in fact much like the Peter Pan Stakes in normal years, except that it is not a prep for the Belmont but rather for the Preakness and Kentucky Derby.  What it also means is that Bob Baffert has the easiest route ever to another Triple Crown sweep.  The Belmont was his bane for many years as the distance was a furlong or two too far for his top horses.  This year, the longest they will need to run is 10f in the Kentucky Derby, which being in September, will be much easier to obtain.

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Now that Nadal is out with injury, the only Baffert trainee being considered for the Triple Crown sweep is Charlatan, certainly a very talented horse albeit a tad green with racing.  The undefeated speedster may be stripped of his Arkansas Derby title and earnings due to a drug testing positive for lidocaine, but that apparently is not affecting his Belmont eligibility so that doesn’t matter at this point. 

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In fact, Baffert may be suspended for 15 days or more if found complicit in the drugging, but that won’t matter much either.  The odds of him serving the suspension during the Belmont Stakes is unlikely, as he will appeal to have it occur during another time period.  If or when the suspension does come down, he will simply officially transfer the horse to the care of an assistant trainer until the suspension is lifted.

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For a frontrunning speedster like Charlatan, a 12f Belmont would be a daunting task, as it was for Justify, one of few frontrunners to ever win it.  But at 9f, it’s obviously not a problem.  Charlatan went gate to wire in the 9f Arkansas Derby (Division 1), with nobody getting within 2 lengths of him, and winning by 6 in the end.  And he set legit fractions of 46 flat for the half mile and 1.09.6 for ¾.  Two others from that field are set to compete in the Belmont, and are just as unlikely to catch the top Power horse on June 20.  

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So who can catch the Charlatan, who has top Power in the Grid? First of all, NY Traffic and Shivaree, if they do draw into the field, will be attempting to go with him on the early pace.  That will make it a difficult pace for all three of them if they engage on the front end, and set things up for others that run off the pace.  Grab the Grid at the link below to follow along.

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Favored Tiz The Law will be the primary benefactor of this. In all 5 of his career races, he’s been consistently 2 lengths behind the leader at first call, with his only loss coming by one length on a sloppy track.  Since then he’s rattled off two decisive victories in the Holy Bull G3 and Florida Derby G1 for Sackatoga Stables and Barclay Tagg. The Grid has him at 3^rd in LP, 1^st in Stamina, and 2^nd in Power.

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Since at this point we have to assume the three E8’s and a speed duel up front, we will closely examine LP.  Tops in the category is Maxfield, also 4^th in Power and ranked 4^th in our last Derby Double Dozen, even with only two career races, the 2^nd a G1 win at Keeneland.  He debuted 2020 in style, winning again in the Matt Winn G3 on May 23 for Godolphin and trainer Brendan Walsh. 

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Second in the LP calculation is Sole Volante, who will be a long shot in this field after finishing 2^nd in the Tampa Bay Derby G2.  Not that he did anything wrong, but he was too far back to make the wire in time given the dawdling pace up front.  He’s also 3^rd in Power and Stamina, and was ranked 7^th in that last Derby Dozen.  Patrick Biancone has a serious contender here, especially if the pace scenario holds true.  

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At 3^rd in LP is Tiz The Law who we already covered, and behind him is Dr. Post, a very interesting prospect who may not actually be a long shot at post time.   The main reason being that Todd Pletcher is training him for St. Elias Stables.  Only 3 races into his career, he has been impressive and won a stakes race last out in his typical mid pack stalking style.  He could continue to improve and looms large.

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At 5^th in LP is Max Player, who has done little wrong in his career, breaking his maiden 2^nd time out and then winning the Withers G3 last out in February for owner George Hall and trainer Linda Rice, a top 10 Belmont Park trainer.  Anything over 20-1 is an awesome price for this quality midpack runner.

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That about covers it for the primary contenders.  I doubt if anyone else in the field is capable of winning, especially with the three strong Grade 1 winners we covered.  However, there is another G1 winner we didn’t mention.  Basin, who finished a distant 2^nd to Charlatan last out, won the Hopeful G1 last year at 7f.  Steve Asmussen seems to think he can get another G1 win out of him for Jackpot Farm.

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Speaking of top trainers, we also need to mention Todd actually has 3 in this tentative Belmont field.  Gouverneur Morris made it at #22 in our last Derby Double Dozen, with the thinking that he could do real damage with a hot pace up front.  There was a definite swift pace in the Arkansas Derby, but no speed duel.  Charlatan had it his own way the whole way.  Gov. Morris hung in 3^rd and finished a neck behind Basin.

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Farmington Road is the other Pletcher trainee, and is the sole representative from the other Arkansas Derby Division.  In that, he too had a legit pace to run at, but hung up in 4^th, finishing a distant 7 lengths behind frontrunning Nadal, who is out with an injury.  Before that in the Oaklawn Stakes, he made an impressive run from last place 17 lengths back to pass 11 horses and pick up 2^nd, just ½ length from victory.  A similar run could put him on the board in this field.

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So now that we have truly covered the entire tentative field, let’s go ahead and make the picks.  Keep in mind this is all hypothetical right now, and the selections are dependent on the field as we have it displayed at this time. The odds are also hypothetical and based on various online oddsmakers.  

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Predicted order of finish.

Tiz the Law 2-1

Charlatan 3-1

Maxfield 5-1

Sole Volante 15-1

Dr. Post 10-1

Max Player 25-1

Farmington Road 25-1

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Of course, after the post draw, the field and pace scenario could look vastly different.  I tried to figure out how NY Traffic can hit the board, but he simply won’t be able do it if Charlatan and Shivaree are in the race.  There’s just too much power and late pace in the current tentative field.  I went 7 deep for the super because at least one of those statistically won’t make the field.  One of the top 4 listed will win it.

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But at least we have some great solid long shot specials in there who have a legit chance to hit the board or even win.  Stay tuned as we will update the Grid and picks accordingly after the post draw the week leading up to the Belmont Stakes.  At that point we will add the jockeys and official morning line, and everything will be fine.

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June 3, 2020.  Belmont Park is finally open for racing this year, only about a month later than usual, but better late than never.  Opening day festivities include 10 races with over 100 horses running after morning scratches, and the featured Beaugay G3 on turf, which will be contested by 5 horses, all of which will win purse money.

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The Beaugay ML favorite is Rushing Fall, a multiple Grade 1 winner for Chad Brown, making her 2020 debut after a disappointing 4^th place finish in a G1 to end the 4 race 2019 campaign.  2^nd choice Got Stormy is also a multiple G1 winner and is coming off a strong 2^nd place finish in the Frank Kilroe Mile G1 in March.  Others are running for the remainder of the purse, but 12-1 Call Me Love is interesting, making her US debut for Christophe Clemente.

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Today’s outlook for Elmont NY is a strong chance of T-storms in the early and mid afternoon, such that the MTO entries remain in play at this time.   As of 1pm, races remain on the turf course which is listed as firm, and the dirt track is fast. Therefore we have to skip the turf picks for now. It’s just too confusing with the MTO’s hanging around.  Grab the free Grid provided at this link to follow along make your own picks.

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R1 1:15ET 6.5f D Md 20000 3 UP:  10 9 4 5            LSS 8 7 6

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R3 2:23ET 5f D MSW 2 YO  64000: 2 3   5 horse field of 1^st timers. 

R4 2:55ET 6.5f D Clm 10000 3 UP:  7 3 13              LSS 14 8 6 1

R7 4:32ET 6f D Md 30000 3 UP:  10 3 4 1 9 11 8 14              LSS 3 4 1 8 14

R9 5:36ET 8.5f t Beaugay-G3 4 UP FM:  1 2 3

R10 6:08ET 6f D Clm 16000n2l 3 UP:  1 7                LSS 4 6 2 14

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June 1, 2020. The Stakes Schedule for North America, Ascot and Japan has vastly improved over last month, as tracks continue to reopen after the global dampanic. Specifically, 17 North American tracks with the bulk of stakes racing occurring at Belmont and Santa Anita. Ascot will also hold a slew of about 20 graded stakes late in the month.

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June 2020 Sortable Stakes Schedule: North America, Ascot, Japan

Race	Trac	Date	Purse(USD)	Ae/Sex	Dist.	Surf.	Fee, Due Date
George W. Barker S	FL	01-Jun	$50,000	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Closed on May 20.
Shanghied S	AsD	03-Jun	$16,000	3yo	5.5f	Dirt	Closed on May 22.
Beaugay S (IIIT)	Bel	03-Jun	$100,000	4&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on May 23.
Tiller S	Bel	04-Jun	$80,000	4&up	11f	Turf	Closed on May 23.
Michael F. Rowland Memorial H	Tdn	04-Jun	$75,000	3&up S	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Harmony Lodge S	Bel	05-Jun	$80,000	4&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on May 23.
Fancy Bucles S	CT	05-Jun	$50,000	3&up f/m S	4.5f	Dirt	Closed on May 26.
Fort Marcy S (IIT)	Bel	06-Jun	$150,000	4&up	9f	Turf	Closed on May 23.
Intercontinental (IIIT)	Bel	06-Jun	$100,000	4&up f/m	7f	Turf	Closed on May 23.
Runhappy Carter H (I)	Bel	06-Jun	$250,000	3&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on May 23.
Westchester S (III)	Bel	06-Jun	$100,000	4&up	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on May 23.
Aristides	CD	06-Jun	$100,000	4&up	6f	Dirt	Closed on May 23.
Dogwood (III)	CD	06-Jun	$100,000	3yo f	7f	Dirt	Closed on May 23.
It's Only Money S	CT	06-Jun	$50,000	3&up S	4.5f	Dirt	Closed on May 27.
Albany S		06-Jun	$50,000	3&up	5f	Turf	Closed on May 28.
Game Face S	P	06-Jun	$75,000	3yo f	6.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Ginger Punch S	P	06-Jun	$100,000	3&up f/m S	8.5f	Turf	Not Available
Soldier's Dancer S	P	06-Jun	$100,000	3&up S	8.5f	Turf	Not Available
Naruo Kinen (JPN-IIIT)	JRA	06-Jun	$815,000	3&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Apr 28.
Cinema S	SA	06-Jun	$150,000	3yo	9f	Turf	Closed on May 28.
Crystal Water S	SA	06-Jun	$100,000	3&up S	8f	Turf	Closed on May 28.
Desert Code S	SA	06-Jun	$75,000	3yo	5.5f	Turf	Closed on May 28.
Fran's Valentine S	SA	06-Jun	$100,000	3&up f/m S	8f	Turf	Closed on May 28.
Hollywood old Cup (I)	SA	06-Jun	$300,000	3&up	10f	Dirt	Closed on May 28.
Santa Anita Derby (I)	SA	06-Jun	$400,000	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on May 28.
Santa Anita Oas (II)	SA	06-Jun	$200,000	3yo f	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on May 28.
First Defence	Bel	07-Jun	$80,000	4&up	7f	Turf	Closed on May 23.
Golden Poppy		07-Jun	$75,000	3&up f/m	8.5f	Turf	Closed on May 29.
Yasuda Kinen (JPN-IT)	JRA	07-Jun	$2,297,000	3&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Apr 28.
Triple Bend S (II)	SA	07-Jun	$200,000	3&up	7f	Dirt	Closed on May 28.
La Verendrye S	AsD	10-Jun	$25,000	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	Closed on May 29.
Flat Out	Bel	11-Jun	$80,000	4&up	11f	Dirt	Closed on May 30.
Commentator H	Bel	12-Jun	$125,000	3&up S	8f	Dirt	Closed on May 30.
Ogden Phipps S (I)	Bel	13-Jun	$300,000	4&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	Closed on May 30.
Louisville (IIIT)	CD	13-Jun	$100,000	4&up	12f	Turf	Closed on May 30.
RedTail Landing H	CTM	13-Jun	$50,000	3&up f/m	7f	Dirt	$100/Jun 3
Alcatraz S		13-Jun	$75,000	3yo	8f	Turf	$50/Jun 4
Angels Flight S	SA	13-Jun	$75,000	3yo f	6.5f	Dirt	$0/Jun 4
Thor's Echo S	SA	13-Jun	$100,000	3&up S	6f	Dirt	$100/Jun 4
Star Shoot S	WO	13-Jun	$100,000	3yo f	6f	AW	Closed on May 27.
Woodstock S	WO	13-Jun	$100,000	3yo	6f	AW	Closed on May 27.
Mike Lee S	Bel	14-Jun	$100,000	3yo S	7f	Dirt	Closed on May 30.
Spangled Jimmy H	CTM	14-Jun	$50,000	3&up	7f	Dirt	$100/Jun 4
San Francisco Mile (IIIT)		14-Jun	$250,000	3&up	8f	Turf	$50/Jun 5
Epsom Cup (JPN-IIIT)	JRA	14-Jun	$815,000	3&up	9f	Turf	Closed on Apr 28.
Mermaid S (JPN-IIIT)	JRA	14-Jun	$717,000	3&up f/m	10f	Turf	Closed on Apr 28.
Ruidoso Sprint H	Rui	14-Jun	$30,000	3&up	5.5f	Dirt	$0/Jun 4
Possibly Perfect S	SA	14-Jun	$75,000	3&up f/m	10f	Turf	$0/Jun 4
Niagara S	FL	15-Jun	$50,000	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 3
Coventry S (EN-IIT)	ASC	16-Jun	$200,000	2yo	6f	Turf	$1,995/Jun 9
King's Stand S (EN-IT)	ASC	16-Jun	$665,000	3&up	5f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Queen Anne S (EN-IT)	ASC	16-Jun	$798,000	4&up	8f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
St James's Palace S (EN-IT)	ASC	16-Jun	$665,000	3yo c	8f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Wolferton S	ASC	16-Jun	$146,000	4&up	10f	Turf	$732/Jun 9
Chantilly S	AsD	16-Jun	$25,000	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 5
Due of Cambridge S (EN-IIT)	ASC	17-Jun	$233,000	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Prince of Wales's S (EN-IT)	ASC	17-Jun	$998,000	4&up	10f	Turf	Closed on Apr 22.
Queen Mary S (EN-IIT)	ASC	17-Jun	$153,000	2yo f	5f	Turf	$1,530/Jun 10
Queen's Vase S (EN-IIT)	ASC	17-Jun	$333,000	3yo	14f	Turf	$3,325/Jun 10
Windsor Castle S	ASC	17-Jun	$126,000	2yo	5f	Turf	$632/Jun 10
Free Press S	AsD	17-Jun	$25,000	3&up	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 5
10,000 Lakes S	Cby	17-Jun	$50,000	3&up S	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 8
Lady Slipper S	Cby	17-Jun	$50,000	3&up f/m S	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 8
Obeah S	Del	17-Jun	$100,000	3&up f/m	8.5f	Dirt	$0/Jun 6
Sagamore Sired S	Ind	17-Jun	$75,000	3yo S	6f	Dirt	$100/Jun 3
Swifty Sired Fillies S	Ind	17-Jun	$75,000	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	$100/Jun 3
Gold Cup (EN-IT)	ASC	18-Jun	$665,000	4&up	20f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Hampton Court S (EN-IIIT)	ASC	18-Jun	$126,000	3yo	10f	Turf	$1,264/Jun 11
Norfolk S (EN-IIT)	ASC	18-Jun	$146,000	2yo	5f	Turf	$1,463/Jun 11
Ribblesdale S (EN-IIT)	ASC	18-Jun	$266,000	3yo f	12f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Critical Eye H	Bel	18-Jun	$125,000	3&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	$125/Jun 6
George Lewis Memorial S	Tdn	18-Jun	$75,000	3&up S	8.5f	Dirt	Not Available
J. William Petro Memorial H	Tdn	18-Jun	$75,000	3&up f/m S	8.5f	Dirt	Not Available
Albany S (EN-IIIT)	ASC	19-Jun	$126,000	2yo f	6f	Turf	$1,264/Jun 12
Commonwealth Cup (EN-IT)	ASC	19-Jun	$665,000	3yo	6f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Coronation S (EN-IT)	ASC	19-Jun	$665,000	3yo f	8f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
King Edward VII S (EN-IIT)	ASC	19-Jun	$299,000	3yo c/	12f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Sir Cat S	Bel	19-Jun	$80,000	3yo	6f	Turf	$100/Jun 6
Chesham S	ASC	20-Jun	$126,000	2yo	7f	Turf	$632/Jun 14
Diamond Jubilee S (EN-IT)	ASC	20-Jun	$1,330,000	4&up	6f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Hardwicke S (EN-IIT)	ASC	20-Jun	$299,000	4&up	12f	Turf	Closed on Apr 27.
Jersey S (EN-IIIT)	ASC	20-Jun	$126,000	3yo	7f	Turf	$1,264/Jun 14
Acorn S (I)	Bel	20-Jun	$300,000	3yo f	8f	Dirt	$300/Jun 6
Belmont S (I)	Bel	20-Jun	$1,000,000	3yo	9f	Dirt	Closed on Mar 30.
Jaipur Presented by America's Best Racin (IT)	Bel	20-Jun	$250,000	3&up	6f	Turf	$250/Jun 6
Pennine Ridge (IIT)	Bel	20-Jun	$150,000	3yo	8f	Turf	$150/Jun 6
Wonder Aain (IIIT)	Bel	20-Jun	$150,000	3yo f	8f	Turf	$150/Jun 6
Woody Stephens Presented by Claiborne Farm (I)	Bel	20-Jun	$250,000	3yo	7f	Dirt	$250/Jun 6
Audubon S	CD	20-Jun	$100,000	3yo	9f	Turf	$100/Jun 6
Wise Dan S (IIT)	CD	20-Jun	$200,000	4&up	8.5f	Turf	$200/Jun 6
Chariot Chaser H	CTM	20-Jun	$50,000	3yo f	6f	Dirt	$100/Jun 10
David Semmes Memorial Hurdle (IIT)	rM	20-Jun	$75,000	4&up	17f	Turf	Closed on Apr 20.
Steeplethon S	rM	20-Jun	$40,000	5&up	24f	Turf	Closed on Apr 20.
Virginia old Cup Timber	rM	20-Jun	$100,000	5&up	32f	Turf	Closed on Apr 20.
Mountain Top Futurity	Rui	20-Jun	$125,000	2yo S	5f	Dirt	Closed on Jan 1.
Dream of Summer S	SA	20-Jun	$100,000	3&up f/m S	8f	Dirt	$100/Jun 11
Lazaro Barrera S (III)	SA	20-Jun	$100,000	3yo	6.5f	Dirt	$100/Jun 11
Snow Chief S	SA	20-Jun	$150,000	3yo S	9f	Turf	$100/Jun 11
Wilshire S (IIIT)	SA	20-Jun	$100,000	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	$100/Jun 11
Jacques Cartier S (III)	WO	20-Jun	$125,000	4&up	6f	AW	$125/Jun 3
Lady Shipman S	Bel	21-Jun	$80,000	3yo f	6f	Turf	$100/Jun 6
Western Canada H	CTM	21-Jun	$50,000	3yo	6f	Dirt	$100/Jun 11
Hakodate Sprint S (JPN-IIIT)	JRA	21-Jun	$785,000	3&up	6f	Turf	Closed on May 12.
Unicorn S (JPN-III)	JRA	21-Jun	$701,000	3yo	8f	Dirt	Closed on May 12.
American S (IIIT)	SA	21-Jun	$100,000	3&up	8f	Turf	$100/Jun 11
Melair S	SA	21-Jun	$150,000	3yo f S	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Jun 11
San Juan Capistrano S (IIIT)	SA	21-Jun	$100,000	3&up	14f	Turf	$100/Jun 11
Siren Lure S	SA	21-Jun	$75,000	3&up	5.5f	Turf	$0/Jun 11
Whimsical S (III)	WO	21-Jun	$125,000	4&up f/m	6f	AW	$125/Jun 3
Golden Boy S	AsD	22-Jun	$25,000	3yo	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Ontario County S	FL	22-Jun	$50,000	3yo S	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 10
Hazel Wright Sire S	AsD	23-Jun	$25,000	3yo f S	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Frank Arnason Sire S	AsD	24-Jun	$25,000	3yo c/ S	6f	Dirt	Not Available
Easy Goer S	Bel	25-Jun	$80,000	3yo	8.5f	Dirt	$100/Jun 13
Hessonite S	Bel	26-Jun	$75,000	4&up f/m S	6f	Turf	$100/Jun 13
Just a Game S (IT)	Bel	27-Jun	$300,000	4&up f/m	8f	Turf	$300/Jun 13
New York S (IIT)	Bel	27-Jun	$250,000	4&up f/m	10f	Turf	$250/Jun 13
True North S (II)	Bel	27-Jun	$150,000	4&up	6.5f	Dirt	$150/Jun 13
Vagrancy (III)	Bel	27-Jun	$100,000	3&up f/m	6.5f	Dirt	$100/Jun 13
Bashford Manor S (III)	CD	27-Jun	$100,000	2yo	6f	Dirt	$100/Jun 13
Fleur de Lis (II)	CD	27-Jun	$200,000	4&up f/m	9f	Dirt	$200/Jun 13
Regret S (IIIT)	CD	27-Jun	$100,000	3yo f	9f	Turf	$100/Jun 13
Stephen Foster (II)	CD	27-Jun	$500,000	4&up	9f	Dirt	$300/Jun 13
Evangeline Mile	EvD	27-Jun	$100,000	3&up	8f	Dirt	$0/Jun 12
Spotted Horse	EvD	27-Jun	$50,000	3&up f/m R	7.5f	Turf	$0/Jun 12
Soi Phet S	LRC	27-Jun	$100,000	3&up S	8f	Dirt	Not Available
Daniel Stearns Cleveland Gold Cup	Tdn	27-Jun	$75,000	3yo S	9f	Dirt	Not Available
Ohio Derby (III)	Tdn	27-Jun	$500,000	3yo	9f	Dirt	$0/Jun 17
Nassau S (IIT)	WO	27-Jun	$175,000	3&up f/m	8f	Turf	$175/Jun 10
Bouwerie S	Bel	28-Jun	$100,000	3yo f S	7f	Dirt	$100/Jun 13
Takarazua Kinen (JPN-IT)	JRA	28-Jun	$3,010,000	3&up	11f	Turf	Closed on May 12.
First Lady H	Rui	28-Jun	$50,000	3&up f/m	6f	Dirt	$0/Jun 18

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