Weekend Winners Club

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Wednesday, April 26, 2020.  The long awaited (almost) final and Definitive Derby Dozen is here. Normally it’s the Double Dozen but the field has finally narrowed down to 21 after the year long battle of attrition.  In the last Dozen 2 months ago, even after the removal of Nadal and Charlatan, there were still 66 on the Derby points list to narrow down. 

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The good news is that after the 8 month battle of attrition this year, the cream has risen to the top, while the fragile have been taken off the trail.  It’s fairly obvious who the top 5 or 6 contenders are, and in fact 3 of them are the same as the last Dozen.  But other contenders have emerged, and we already did the dirty work of ranking all them for you.

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Just in the past week we saw two more withdraw consideration.  Pneumatic is out, but Asmussen picked up a contender with Max Player.  Swiss Skydiver will be running in the Oaks, as Kenny knows she would be running for 3^rd at best in the Derby. But it looks like if all goes well in the Oaks, he may pull a Rachel Alexandra with her and head to Pimlico next.

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The Derby Grid as usual, has essentially identified 4-5 key horses that you will want to use in your exotics:  Tiz the Law, Art Collector, Honor AP, Max Player and NY Traffic.

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Here are the top 13 horses going into the Derby 10 days out.  Full explanation below the sortable table.

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Final Derby Dozen and One August 26 2020

Rk	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Points	$takes*	Last	Race
1	Tiz the Law	Constitution	Barclay Tagg	372	1972400	1st	Travers G1 Aug.8
2	Art Collector	Bernardini	Tom Drury	150	476461	1st	Ellis Pk Derby Aug.9
3	Honor A. P.	Honor Code	John Shirreffs	140	340000	2nd	Shared Belief Aug.1
4	Authentic	Into Mischief	Bob Baffert	200	980000	1st	Haskell G1 July 18
5	Ny Traffic	Cross Traffic	Joseph Saffie Jr	110	472820	2nd	Haskell G1 July 18
6	Sole Volante	Karakontie	Patrick Biancone	30	273510	6th	Belmont G1 June 20
7	Caracaro	Uncle Mo	Gustavo Delgado	60	205000	2nd	Travers G1 Aug.8
8	Dr Post	Quality Road	Todd Pletcher	80	331035	3rd	Haskell G1 July 18
9	Max Player	Honor Code	Steve Asmussen	60	337500	3rd	Travers G1 Aug.8
10	Thousand Words	Pioneerof The Nile	Bob Baffert	83	297000	1st	Shared Belief Aug.1
11	Rushie	American Pharoah	Peter Eurton	40	108000	3rd	Blue Grass G2 July 11
12	Money Moves	Candy Ride	Todd Pletcher		0	2nd	OC62.5k Sar July 25
13	Shirl's Speight	Speightstown	Roger Attfield		55896	1st	Marine G3 July 25
15	King Guillermo	Uncle Mo	Juan Carlos Avila	90	317050	2nd	Ark.Derby G1 May 2
15	Enforceable	Tapit	Mark Casse	43	314550	4th	Blue Grass G2 July 11
15	Major Fed	Ghostzapper	Greg Foley	38	179100	2nd	Indy Derby G3 July 8
15	Storm the Court	Court Vision	Peter Eurton	36	1273851	2nd	La Jolla G3(T) Aug.9
15	Attachment Rate	Hard Spun	Dale Romans	35	93675	2nd	Ellis Pk Derby Aug.9
15	Finnick the Fierce	Dialed In	Rey Hernandez	25	121700	7th	Blue Grass G2 July 11
15	Winning Impression	Will Take Charge	Dallas Stewart	20	54822	7th	Ellis Pk Derby Aug.9
15	Necker Island	Hard Spun	Chris Hartman	14	74808	3rd	Ellis Pk Derby Aug.9

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TIZ THE LAW.  If he’s not #1 on any other rankings you’re looking at, burn the piece of paper you saw it on and block the site from all your browsers, including the one on your phone. He’s dominated all 4 races this year, adding 3 G1 wins to one he got last year.  His only subpar race is still one that most in this field would be proud of, a narrow 3^rd in a G3 at Churchill last year.  The only chink in his armor thus may be the sloppy sealed track that he had trouble tractioning on that day.

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ART COLLECTOR.  Normally a horse that doesn’t run in their first stakes race until July would never appear on this list, because the Derby would have already been run.  But this is no normal Derby year obviously.  The fact is he’s dominated 5 straight races, dating back to a sloppy track win at Churchill last year.  This includes the G2 Blue Grass and Ellis Park Derby, which was invented to issue 50 Derby points which he happily collected.  No obvious chinks in his armor, has 2^nd in Power, Stamina and LP , but he hasn’t faced G1 competition yet.

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HONOR A.P.  The most lightly raced top September Derby contender of all time, he still only has 5 lifetime races.  But they were all quality races, with 3 runnerup’s and 2 wins including the G1 Santa Anita Derby, where he made use of a fast pace up front to deliver a devastating closing move.  The fact that he’s been used sparingly is likely because he’s the 3^rd most expensive horse in the field, sold as a yearling for $850 grand.  So now it’s time to start paying off that credit card.

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AUTHENTIC.  Again with only 5 lifetime races, 4 this year, and again all quality races, a 2^nd and 4 wins including the Haskell last out.  He did hold off Honor AP in the San Felipe but suffered from a speed duel in the SA Derby and folded but still held 2^nd.  Unfortunately for him, this Derby field looks like it contains a lot of speed and it will be difficult for the frontrunner to hold up at 10f.  The 5^th most expensive colt in the field, it’s also time for him to provide some ROI.

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NY TRAFFIC.  5^th in Derby points, 5^th in the Derby Grid, and 5^th in the Dozen.  The only historical scores he missed out on in the Grid were that he’s not a graded stakes winner and his last prep was 7 weeks out.  However, he did finish 2^nd in 3 straight graded races, including the G1 Haskell where he only lost by a nose after bearing down on Authentic towards the wire.  For an E8, he holds up well in deep stretch, including the 9.5f Louisiana Derby where he went 2^nd gate to wire.  Like Authentic, he may be compromised by all the projected speed in this field.

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SOLE VOLANTE.  Stop gasping.  Yes he’s 18^th in points, finished 6^th in the Belmont, and doesn’t appear on anyone else’s rankings, but that’s because they don’t have the Grid.  If one bad race defined a career, then people wouldn’t know the names Real Quiet or Charismatic from Triple Crowns past. The fact is he has top LP in the Grid, earning that distinction with 3 straight excellent closing moves before the Belmont. He may have just not been able to get footing in the Big Sandy.  But top LP counts for a LOT in the Derby.  Put it this way, last year’s top two LP were Maximum Security and Country House, in that order.  Ring a bell?

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CARACARO. Again, stop with the gasping.  At least he’s top 10 in Derby points.  Besides that, the Grid has him at top 5 in Power, and he got the 2^nd best last-out Grid PF  in the field, and 5^th best PF overall.  And that PF was achieved in the 10f Travers, a perfectly distanced prep for the Derby.  In that 4^th career race, he stayed on very well to get 2^nd behind Tiz the Law.  Not a household name trainer, but a competent one and this trainee has an excellent pedigree for classic racing.  He’s still improving and could peak at just the right time.

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DR POST.  The 4^th most expensive horse in the field has also been spared a bit this year, with only 5 career races thus far.  In the last two he followed up a stakes win with 2^nd and 3^rd in the two G1s at Belmont and Haskell.  No excuses, but he only lost to 3 horses which are all in the top 5 on this list. The Grid has him 4^th in Power, 3^rd in LP and Stamina.  It’s hard to argue with that, and with the speed in this race and trainer Todd Pletcher, he could be sitting on a huge one here.

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MAX PLAYER.  I’ve liked this one all year, and he’s very similar to DR POST in many ways.  Only 5 starts, but the in the last 3 he followed up a G3 win with 3^rd in the Belmont and Travers G1s.  He has a similar late running style and is 7^th in Power, Stamina, and LP.  That was all under trainer Linda Rice, and now he’s in the care of Steve Asmussen, selected likely for his vast Triple Crown experience.  He could also be sitting on a big race, and the Derby Grid critical criteria marked him as one of the top 4 key horses.

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THOUSAND WORDS.  At last we get to the most expensive horse in the field, he sold at Keeneland as a yearling for $1mil (plus tax I think.)  Then sent directly to the Baffert barn, where he has been inconsistent, and his two biggest wins were in December and Feb.  Since then he’s had only 1 victory in 4 races, going gate to wire in the Shared Belief.  It’s true he beat Honor AP in that race, but setting a slow pace up front was the key.  It’s hard to envision him winning the roses but the million dollar baby needs to start earning some real money.

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RUSHIE.  A late bloomer, in his last two, he only lost to 3 of the top 5 on his list, and the #1 filly on the continent who we already discussed. He’s probably not on anyone else’s top anything list, but I see some potential here for Mike Mccarthy.  He has yet to race on a muddy track, but his siblings have the top win % on such a surface, so if it rains on Derby day, watch out for this one and double down. He’s the only non-early nominee left, so they would have to fork over $45 large to enter, but a top 5 finish would double that.

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MONEY MOVES.  Normally, an optional claimer with only 3 career races and no stakes experience would never make this list, but as said, this is no normal year.  The fact is, this is the 2^nd most expensive horse in the field at $975k, and he’s put up big efforts for Todd in all 3, winning 2 and missing by a neck while closing in at 9f last out at Saratoga.  If he wins the Derby, all remaining “rules” of Derby champs will have been broken.  I think he’s too green to win but he could turn some heads on race day if he actually draws in. Right now he’s the first alternate. 

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SHIRL’S SPEIGHT.  Now a 2 race horse on the list? With no Derby points, he’s still in the field as of now at #20 due to a graded stakes win at Woodbine.  Roger Attfield is a top Canadian trainer and this one has a great pedigree. He could freak out first time on dirt and possibly even hit the top 5.

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If the horse didn’t make the above list, it’s because I just can’t see them winning at all and only a very small chance to hit the board.  Café Pharoah would be somewhere near the top 5 but I assume he’s not shipping from Japan or I would have heard about it by now. Stay tuned to Kentucky Derby Central on  the menu link for more great articles and analysis. Good luck!

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For the Full Derby Grid to help you reel in big exotics this year click here.

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