Weekend Winners Club

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Sunday, June 16. Monmouth Park. Undefeated Kentucky Derby champion Maximum returns to racing in the Pegasus Stakes Sunday after skipping the Preakness and Belmont to rest up after getting clobbered by War of Will in the Derby.
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The excellent son of New Year’s Day (Street Cry) and Lil Indy looks to take his winning streak to 6 while putting in a solid prep for the Haskell Stakes on July 20, giving him another 5 week layoff.
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Trainer Jason Servis says that the best 3yo in training is in good health and ready to race without any further ado. 5 others are brave enough to take him on, but he will have to run his career worst race for any of them to beat him.
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All contenders will make their racing fee ($1500) money back since 6th to last pay $2000, so it’s surprising to not see more run for the $20k 2nd place prize or even the $10k for 3rd. 1 of the opponents is another Servis trainee, Direct Order.
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Todd Pletcher looks to liven up the competition with 2 entries, including King for a Day, who won the Sir Barton stakes on the Preakness undercard in his first race of the year. Last Judgment is coming off a disastrous Pat Day Mile on the Ky Derby undercard.
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But it shall be a fun day of racing at Monmouth, with over 100 horses entered in 13 races. The $150k Pegasus Stakes is race 10 at about 5pm ET.
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As promised, the Monmouth Grid is here free for Sunday. Happy Father’s day!

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Thursday, June 13 2019. Churchill Downs has yet another big race day this weekend as the major racing shifts back from Belmont on Saturday night with 5 graded stakes races including the formerly G1 Stephen Foster, which was downgraded to G2 status this year.
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The 11 race night card is scheduled to begin at 6pm ET, with the string of 5 graded stakes races beginning in race 5 at about 8pm with the Matt Winn G3 and ending with the Regret G3 at about 10:20pm. After that is stakes race for Arabians and a maiden race to close out that card.
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The MATT WINN G3 is for 3yo on dirt at 8.5f and consists mostly of stakes racers that didn’t make the Triple Crown cut this year. The ML favorite Mr. Money will be tough to beat if he runs like he did in winning the Pat Day Mile G3 here on the Kentucky Derby undercard.
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Signalman didn’t impress anyone with 9th in the Preakness, but has had lots of success in Kentucky. At Keeneland he was 3rd in the Bluegrass G2 in April, and last year he won the Kentucky Jockey Club G2 here 3 weeks after an impressive 3rd in the BC Juvenile, also at Churchill.
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Limonite has also had success in Kentucky, last out winning an OCM in the slop on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Last year he was 3rd in the KYJC after breaking maiden and skipping the BCJ. This late closer would like to see a fast pace develop up front but there isn’t an excess of speed on paper.
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Knicks Go bested Signalman for 2nd in the BC Juvenile but has had a rough go of it in 4 races since, losing the KYJC by 18 and had a dismal Gotham before finally rebounding for a solid 4th in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in April.
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Nolo Contesto is listed as the 2nd ML choice and has been solid in his 4 career races but his only win is a MSW and Santa Anita, where he also finished 4th in the Santa Anita Derby in April.
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There are 2 long shots. Proverb began his career at Indiana last year before shipping to Oaklawn so it will be his first Kentucky race. Armistice Day is a Canadian transfer who ran last out on Churchill turf and has yet to run in a dirt race with his other 3 being on the Woodbine polytrack.
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The WISE DAN G2 at 8.5 on the turf has a field full of 14 horses with 1 alterate, 3 and up with no clear cut favorite. The low morning lines are 5 and 6 and there is a lot of parity in this field. Thus it should be a very exciting race.
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The FLEUR DE LIS G2 has a surprisingly short field of 6 considering the winner gets an automatic entry into the BC Distaff in November. The 9f race for 3 and up females has 3 virtual co-favorites, all multiple graded stakes winners so that should be an exciting contest despite the short field.
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The STEPHEN FOSTER G2 is for horses 3 and up going 9f on the dirt, and is also a BC Challenge race with an automatic berth for the winner to the BC Classic in November at Santa Anita. Most are Kentucky or other southeast based stakes winners but others are from around the country.
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The ML favorite Gift Box is coming off an impressive west coast swing where he won 2 of 3 including the G1 Big Cap. He’s racing again on 3 weeks’ notice after placing 2nd in the G1 Gold Cup. 3 others at low ML odds are Yoshida, Seeking the Soul, and Tom’s D’etat.
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Tom’s D’etat could end up the favorite since he was 2nd in the Alysheba G2 on Kentucky Oaks day. Seeking the Soul was 3rd in the Alysheba after shipping back from Dubai where he finished 8th in the World Cup, where Yoshida finished 6th in his last start.
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The winner will probably come from this single digit odds group but most of these 12 are graded stakes winners. They don’t run the race on paper. This is the first year that it has not been a G1 since 2001. The track record was set by Belmont winner Victory Gallop in 1999.
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The REGRET G3 is for 3yo fillies going 9f on the turf, attracting a nice field of 11. Most of these young fillies have run in stakes races but not won one yet, so it could be an important notch in the saddle for the winner.
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That’s it for the graded stakes racing sat. Use the free Grid to make your picks and hit some great long shots, since it is the track and race day of the week. Overall it’s a great card with only 1 race worth less than $97k so there’s plenty of money to go around.
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Wednesday, June 5, 2019. Belmont Stakes week is here again so it’s time to overanalyze it and make some picks. While others might give you some ridiculously obvious and unhelpful facts such as, “every time the Kentucky Derby winner didn’t run in the Belmont Stakes, it was won by a non-Derby winner,” we actually do real statistical analysis here, factoring in Derby, Preakness, pedigree, and other factors.
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It’s always fun to look back at the Triple Crown history and the statistics associated with it, and while reminiscing, see how this year compares. Nowadays we focus mostly on the Bob Baffert Era, starting in 1997 when he won his first of 5 Kentucky Derbies and 7 Preakness Stakes, and eventually training 2 Triple Crown winners in the past 5 years.
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Baffert had been in the game for a while, but not as long as the dominant Wayne Lukas, who had just ended a 3 year tear in which he won 2 Kentucky Derbies, 2 Preakness Stakes, and all 3 Belmont Stakes, a race that had been eluding him since he had won his first Triple Crown race, the Preakness in 1980.
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Lukas somehow avoided having a Triple Crown champion horse during that span, but did achieve the training Triple Crown in 1995 with 2 different horses. Since then he has only mustered 4 Triple Crown race wins, but he’s been around a long time, and key members like his son and Todd Pletcher left his team after that peak.
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After sweeping the Derby and Preakness in 1997-98, Baffert continued to have success but mustered only 1 Belmont win until 2015 with the first of his 2 Triple Crown Champion horses. But why do we keep talking about trainers that don’t have a horse in the race? It’s good to set the stage and the frame of reference for any analysis. Meet the field for this year.
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Angle 1: The Trainer

One trainer who is in the race is Pletcher, who has 3 Belmont wins just like Baffert, the first in 2007 with only the 3rd filly to ever win it. Since then he’s won it 2 of the past 6 years, one with a Tapit colt. Tapit has sired 3 of the last 5 Belmont champs. This year, Todd has 2 in the race, including a Tapit colt, who is also the son of a mare by Touch Gold, who spoiled Baffert’s first Triple Crown attempt with his 1997 Belmont win. See how we went full circle there with pedigree and trainers?
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So if it seems Todd is playing with a stacked deck, he is. You could also say Casse is stacking the field. It’s true, he comes in with Preakness winner War of Will who he claims was the best Kentucky Derby horse but was 8th in that race after his jockey caused 2 very dangerous incidents, getting the real winner disqualified by running up on his heels, as 6 horses passed him.
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But Casse also has Sir Winston who looked good for 2nd in the Peter Pan last out after not getting anywhere near the winners circle in his 3 Derby preps. In the Pan, he beat Intrepid Heart, Pletcher’s Tapit colt, who did stumble at the start but also was passed in the stretch very easily. But the stumble and the fast pace must have been good enough excuses for Todd and he is here to win.
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Obviously Todd is the key guy to beat here this year and any year to be honest, especially with 2 horses. Bill Mott has also won the Belmont among many other big races. Dale Romans has won the Preakness and now so has Mark Casse. Mark Hennig is a top trainer but has yet to win a Triple Crown race.
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Angle 2: Affect of Derby, Preakness, and other preps.

In the Baffert Era, there have been 22 Belmont Stakes. 15 were won by horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby. Only 4 have been won by Preakness champs, and only 2 others that even ran in the Preakness. 2 of the 4 Preakness champs were also Triple Crown champs. The other 2 were the best 3yos of the year, Baffert’s Point Given who should have won the Derby, and Afleet Alex who also unlucky in Kentucky.
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None of this bodes well for WOW or any other Preakness horse, so we’re throwing him, Everfast and Bourbon War out of the winner’s circle. Bourbon War could finish in the money but Everfast most likely won’t. He’s still a maiden and will not achieve his first win this weekend. He has a good trainer but followed up his last 2nd place finish with 3 losses by double digit lengths each.
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10 of 22 Belmont wins were by horses that ran in the Derby but not the Preakness. Enter Master Fencer, Tax, Spinoff, and Tacitus, the obvious favorite here who finished 4th in the Derby after winning both his graded prep races, and is also a Tapit colt. Master Fencer was 7th, 1 slot ahead of WOW.
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The other 2, Tax and Spinoff, stunk in the Derby but it was a sloppy crowded field with WOW causing accidents, so good excuses. And keep in mind, 3 of the Belmont champs during this era were 12th, 13th, and 17th in the Derby, so whatever excuses they had in the Derby that year must have been valid.
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The last group is obviously horses that didn’t run in the Derby or the Preakness. All 6 of these finished 1st or 2nd in their prior race, which was either a prep here at Belmont or at Pimlico, normally in May, except for Kentucky Oaks champion Rags to Riches. This doesn’t bode well for Intrepid Heart with his 3rd place in the Peter Pan, but like we said there’s an excuse. It does look good for Sir Winston and technically Joevia, who won a Monmouth stakes race after finishing 13 behind Tacitus in the Wood.
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Angle 3: Pedigree

Now we return to pedigree. Before Tapit, from the AP Indy sireline, decided he wanted to be the all time leading sire of Belmont winners, the Raise a Native (RAN) sireline was dominating to the tune of 75% Belmont champs during the Baffert Era. And Storm Cat finally jumped into the mix last year, getting his first Derby and Belmont win, 5 years after his death and 30 years after his first stud fee.
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Storm Cat was the greatest American sire of all time, and he was part of the Northern Dancer (ND) line. The Belmont and Triple Crown in general have been heavily dominated by the RAN, ND, and AP Indy (Bold Ruler) lines for decades. In the past 30 years, only 3 Belmont winners were from a different sireline than those 3. Remarkably, none this year are from the RAN line, but 4 each from ND and API.

So who’s not in the club? Master Fencer, whose paternal great grand sire was Sunday Silence, one of those unlucky horses who won the Derby and Preakness but narrowly lost the Belmont in 1989. Tax is part of that same Turn-To sireline that won multiple Belmont Stakes but none since 1980. So not impossible for either of these, just less likely. Ultimately all of them are directly from the Phalaris (1913) sireline, and all are well bred.
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We mentioned Intrepid Heart’s sire Tapit and his mare sired by Belmont champ Touch Gold. Sir Winston, who again beat him in the Peter Pan, is a combination of Breeders Cup Classic champ Awesome Again, and a mare by Preakness and Belmont champ Afleet Alex, the best 3yo that year. That’s why we certainly can’t afford to overlook either of these.
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Angle 4: The Pace

People talk a lot about pace in the Belmont but usually don’t know what they’re talking about. I looked at running styles of Belmont champs in the Baffert Era. 6 were EP types, 7 were P types and 7 were S types, so that’s a very good distribution. We wouldn’t expect any E types to win, and yet 2 of those also did, including the amazing Justify last year. So we can’t really throw any out based on that, but Joevia would be the least likely by far.
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It seems to favor the early pressing runners this year as usual. That would favor Tax, Intrepid Heart, Spinoff, and War of Will who should be close behind expected pacesetter Joevia. Everfast, Tacitus, and Sir Winston would normally form a mid pack in this case behind those leaders. Cloud runners Bourbon War and Master Fencer would likely need to run earlier than usual to have a chance.

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Final Analysis:

From this analysis we were able to throw out most of the field from the winner’s circle already, and we’re left with the most likely winners: Tacitus, Intrepid Heart, Sir Winston, and Spinoff. Tax just isn’t quite making the cut with the trainer who’s won only 3 graded stakes races and the weakest sireline. Master Fencer also has the same sireline and a trainer in his 2nd American race ever.
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This is not to say that the others can’t finish ITM because most of them are capable of doing so on their best day and if things go right for them. They are just unlikely to WIN based on the facts. Remember, War of Will is a nice horse, but he’s not the best 3yo in training by any means, which the previous Preakness/Belmont winners all were. Based on all of this here are the best picks:
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Key picks on top end of exotics:
Intrepid Heart
Tacitus
Sir Winston
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Middle of exotics:
Tax
Spinoff
Master Fencer
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You could just wheel the rest at the bottom of the super except for Everfast. I want to throw out WOW altogether and that would increase the payouts, but then he would be guaranteed to finish ITM just to bust my bets. Then again it’s always bad protocol to wheel all except one, no matter how much sense it makes. So wheel all at the bottom.
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Saturday, June 1. Penn National has its big race day of the year featuring the G2 Penn Mile, Oaks, Governors Cup, Danzig, and 4 other stakes races in a 12 race card starting at 245pm.
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So that you can follow all the action and make some good informed decisions, we provided the Grid for Penn today. Enjoy.
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PENN NATIONAL SATURDAY GRID HERE

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June 2019 Thoroughbred Stakes Schedule
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This month’s highlights:
June 1: Penn Governors Cup 8 stakes races
June 8: Belmont: Stakes Met Mile, Acorn, Manhattan, etc. 3 BCC races
June 8: Woodbine: Oaks and Plate Trial
June 15: Churchill: Stephen Foster, Fleur de Lis, Matt Winn, Regret, etc. 2 BCC races
June 16: Monmouth: Ky Derby champ Maximum Security returns to racing in Pegasus Stakes
June 18-22: Ascot: 20 graded stakes races. 4 BCC races
June 22: UN G1, Ohio Derby
June 29: Gulfstream: Smile Sprint, Princes Rooney (BCC race)
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June 1, 2019
Arlington Matron (GIII) AP Jun 1 $100k g 3&up f/m 9f AW Closed on May 22.
Frank Arnason Sire S AsD Jun 1 $25k e 3yo S 6f Dirt Closed on Jan 1.
Royal Frolic S AsD Jun 1 $18k a 3yo 5.5f Dirt Closed on May 21.
Pennine Ridge (GIIIT) Bel Jun 1 $200k g 3yo 9f Turf Closed on May 18.
Aristides CD Jun 1 $125k g 3&up 6f Dirt Closed on May 18.
Mighty Beau S CD Jun 1 #$120k a 3&up 5f Turf Closed on May 25.
Falls Amiss S HsP Jun 1 $20k a 3&up f/m S 6f Dirt Closed on May 24.
Emerald Downs HsT Jun 1 $50k g 3yo f 6.5f Dirt Closed on May 25.
Naruo Kinen (JPN-IIIT) JRA Jun 1 $765k a 3&up 10f Turf Closed on Apr 23.
Texas Stallion S (Got Koko Div.) LS Jun 1 $65k g 3yo f R 8f Dirt Closed on Jan 1.
Texas Stallion S (Stymie Div.) LS Jun 1 $65k g 3yo c/g R 8f Dirt Closed on Jan 1.
Tale of the Cat S Mth Jun 1 $75k g 3yo 8.5f Turf Closed on May 25.
Chocolate Town Sprint Pen Jun 1 $100k g 3&up 6f Dirt Closed on May 22.
Danzig S Pen Jun 1 $100k g 3yo S 6f Dirt Closed on May 22.
New Start S Pen Jun 1 $100k g 3yo f S 6f Dirt Closed on May 22.
Penn Ladies Dash Pen Jun 1 $100k g 3&up f/m 5f Turf Closed on May 22.
Penn Mile (GIIT) Pen Jun 1 $500k g 3yo 8f Turf Closed on May 22.
Penn Oaks Pen Jun 1 $200k g 3yo f 8f Turf Closed on May 22.
Pennsylvania Governor’s Cup Pen Jun 1 $100k g 3&up 5f Turf Closed on May 22.
Susquehanna S Pen Jun 1 $100k g 3&up f/m 8.5f Turf Closed on May 22.
Gray’s Lake S PrM Jun 1 $60k g 3yo c/g S 6f Dirt Closed on Jan 1.
Honeymoon S (GIIIT) SA Jun 1 $150k g 3yo f 9f Turf Closed on May 23.
Santa Maria S (GII) SA Jun 1 $200k g 4&up f/m 8.5f Dirt Closed on May 23.
O.G. Fischer Memorial H SuR Jun 1 $50k g 3&up f/m 7f Dirt Closed on May 18.
Michael G. Mackey Memorial/Angenora S Tdn Jun 1 $75k g 3&up f/m S 6f Dirt Closed on May 22.
Connaught Cup S (GIIT) WO Jun 1 $175k g 4&up 7f Turf Closed on May 15.
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June 2, 2019
Arapahoe Park Sprint S ArP Jun 2 $20k e 3&up 5f Dirt Closed on May 26.
Chariot Chaser CTM Jun 2 $50k g 3yo f 6f Dirt Closed on May 22.
Western Canada H CTM Jun 2 $50k g 3yo 6f Dirt Closed on May 22.
Governor’s S EmD Jun 2 $50k g 3&up 6f Dirt Closed on May 25.
River Rock Casino S HsT Jun 2 $50k g 3yo 6.5f Dirt Closed on May 25.
Yasuda Kinen (JPN-IT) JRA Jun 2 $2,075k a 3&up 8f Turf Closed on Apr 23.
Lookin At Lucky S Mth Jun 2 $75k g 3yo 6f Dirt Closed on May 25.
First Lady H Rui Jun 2 $30k g 3&up f/m 6f Dirt Closed on May 20.
Cinema S SA Jun 2 $150k g 3yo 9f Turf Closed on May 23.
San Juan County Commissioners H SuR Jun 2 $75k g 3&up 9f Dirt Closed on May 19.
Bold Ruckus S WO Jun 2 $100k g 3yo S 6f Turf Closed on May 15.
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June 3, 2019
George W. Barker S FL Jun 3 $50k g 3&up S 6f Dirt Closed on May 22.

June 5, 2019
Light Hearted S Del Jun 5 $50k g 3yo f 8.32f Turf Closed on May 25.
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June 6, 2019
Astoria Bel Jun 6 $150k g 2yo f 5.5f Dirt Closed on May 25.
Intercontinental (GIIIT) Bel Jun 6 $200k g 4&up f/m 7f Turf Closed on May 25.
Wonder Again (GIIIT) Bel Jun 6 $200k g 3yo f 9f Turf Closed on May 25.
Panthers S PrM Jun 6 $65k g 3yo f 8f Dirt Closed on May 26.
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June 7, 2019
La Verendrye S AsD Jun 7 $30k g 3&up f/m 6f Dirt Closed on May 28.
Bed o’ Roses Invitational (GIII) Bel Jun 7 $250k g 4&up f/m 7f Dirt Not Available
Belmont Gold Cup Invitational (GIIT) Bel Jun 7 $400k g 4&up 16f Turf Not Available
New York S (GIIT) Bel Jun 7 $600k g 4&up f/m 10f Turf Closed on May 25.
Tremont Bel Jun 7 $150k g 2yo 5.5f Dirt Closed on May 25.
True North S (GII) Bel Jun 7 $250k g 4&up 6.5f Dirt Closed on May 25.
Dazzling Falls S HsP Jun 7 $20k a 3yo S 8f Dirt $0/May 31
Prairie Mile PrM Jun 7 $65k g 3yo 8f Dirt Closed on May 26.
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June 8, 2019
Free Press S AsD Jun 8 $30k g 3&up 6f Dirt Closed on May 28.
Hazel Wright Sire S AsD Jun 8 $25k e 3yo f S 6f Dirt Closed on Jan 1.
Acorn S (GI) Bel Jun 8 $700k g 3yo f 8f Dirt Closed on May 25.
Belmont S (GI) Bel Jun 8 $1,500k g 3yo 12f Dirt $50,000/Jun 5
Easy Goer S Bel Jun 8 $150k g 3yo 8.5f Dirt Closed on May 25.
Jaipur Invitational (GIT) BC Bel Jun 8 $400k g 3&up 6f Turf Not Available
Longines Just a Game S (GIT) Bel Jun 8 $700k g 4&up f/m 8f Turf Closed on May 25.
Manhattan S (GIT) Bel Jun 8 $1,000k g 4&up 10f Turf Closed on May 25.
Ogden Phipps S (GI) BC Bel Jun 8 $700k g 4&up f/m 8.5f Dirt Closed on May 25.
Runhappy Metropolitan H (GI) BC Bel Jun 8 $1,200k g 3&up 8f Dirt Closed on May 25.
Woodford Reserve Brooklyn Invitational (GII) Bel Jun 8 $400k g 4&up 12f Dirt Not Available
Woody Stephens Presented by Mohegan Sun (GI) Bel Jun 8 $400k g 3yo 7f Dirt Closed on May 25.
Sydney Gendelman Memorial H BTP Jun 8 $75k g 3&up S 8.5f Turf $50/May 29
Old Forester Mint Julep (GIIIT) CD Jun 8 $125k g 3&up f/m 8.5f Turf Closed on May 25.
Albany S GG Jun 8 $50k a 3&up 5f Turf $0/May 30
Soldier’s Dancer S GP Jun 8 $100k g 3&up S 8.5f Turf Closed on May 26.
Who Doctor Who S HsP Jun 8 $20k a 3&up S 6f Dirt $0/May 31
Unbridled Elaine S Mth Jun 8 $75k g 3&up f/m 5f Turf $0/Jun 1
Plate Trial S WO Jun 8 $125k g 3yo R 9f AW Closed on May 22.
William D. Graham Memorial WO Jun 8 $100k g 3yo f 6.5f Turf $0/May 29
Woodbine Oaks Presented by Budweiser WO Jun 8 $500k g 3yo f R 9f AW Closed on May 1.
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June 9, 2019
Jersey Girl S Bel Jun 9 $150k g 3yo f 6f Dirt Closed on May 25.
Red Tail Landing CTM Jun 9 $50k g 3&up f/m 7f Dirt $100/May 31
Spangled Jimmy H CTM Jun 9 $50k g 3&up 7f Dirt $100/May 31
Kent S EmD Jun 9 $50k g 3yo f 6.5f Dirt $100/Jun 1
Epsom Cup (JPN-IIIT) JRA Jun 9 $765k a 3&up 9f Turf Closed on Apr 23.
Mermaid S (JPN-IIIT) JRA Jun 9 $673k a 3&up f/m 10f Turf Closed on Apr 23.
Smart N Classy H Mth Jun 9 $75k g 3&up f/m S 8f Dirt $0/Jun 1
Lyphard S Pen Jun 9 $100k g 3&up f/m S 8.5f Turf $0/May 29
Robellino S Pen Jun 9 $100k g 3&up S 8.5f Turf $0/May 29
Desert Code S SA Jun 9 $75k a 3yo abt 6.5f Turf $0/May 31
Hendrie S (GIII) WO Jun 9 $125k g 4&up f/m 6.5f AW Closed on May 22.
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June 12, 2019
Stanton S Del Jun 12 $50k g 3yo 8.5f Turf Closed on May 27.

June 14, 2019
Mamie Eisenhower S PrM Jun 14 $60k g 3&up f/m S 6f Dirt $0/Jun 1

June 15, 2019
Aspen S ArP Jun 15 $30k e 3&up c/g S 6f Dirt Not Available
Dancin Renee S Bel Jun 15 $100k g 3&up f/m S 6f Dirt $100/Jun 1
Fleur de Lis (GII) BC CD Jun 15 $250k g 3&up f/m 9f Dirt $250/Jun 1
Matt Winn S (GIII) CD Jun 15 $150k g 3yo 8.5f Dirt $150/Jun 1
Regret S (GIIIT) CD Jun 15 $150k g 3yo f 9f Turf $150/Jun 1
Stephen Foster (GII) BC CD Jun 15 $600k g 3&up 9f Dirt $300/Jun 1
Wise Dan S (GIIT) CD Jun 15 $250k g 3&up 8.5f Turf $250/Jun 1
Obeah S Del Jun 15 $100k g 3&up f/m 9f Dirt $200/Jun 1
Ginger Punch S GP Jun 15 $100k g 3&up f/m S 8.5f Turf $0/Jun 2
Strawberry Morn HsT Ju
n 15 $50k g 3&up f/m 8.5f Dirt $100/Jun 8
Honey Bee S Mth Jun 15 $75k g 3yo f 5.5f Turf $0/Jun 8
John Wayne S PrM Jun 15 $60k g 3&up c/g S 6f Dirt $0/Jun 1
Thor’s Echo H SA Jun 15 $100k g 3&up S 6f Dirt $100/Jun 6
Steady Growth S WO Jun 15 $100k g 3&up S 8.5f AW $100/May 29
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June 16, 2019
Molly Brown S ArP Jun 16 $20k e 3&up f/m 6f Dirt $50/Jun 9
Poker (GIIIT) Bel Jun 16 $300k g 4&up 8f Turf $300/Jun 1
Coca-Cola S EmD Jun 16 $50k g 3yo c/g 6.5f Dirt $100/Jun 8
John Longden “6000” HsT Jun 16 $50k g 3&up 8.5f Dirt $100/Jun 8
Hakodate Sprint S (JPN-IIIT) JRA Jun 16 $737k a 3&up 6f Turf Closed on May 7.
Unicorn S (JPN-III) JRA Jun 16 $659k a 3yo 8f Dirt Closed on May 7.
Alma North S Lrl Jun 16 $100k g 3yo f 7f Dirt $0/Jun 7
Big Dreyfus S Lrl Jun 16 $100k g 3&up f/m 8.5f Turf $100/Jun 7
Polynesian S Lrl Jun 16 $100k g 3&up 7f Dirt $0/Jun 7
Prince George’s County S Lrl Jun 16 $100k g 3&up 8.5f Turf $100/Jun 7
TVG.com Pegasus S Mth Jun 16 $150k g 3yo 8.5f Dirt $150/Jun 1
Ruidoso Sprint H Rui Jun 16 $30k g 3&up 5.5f Dirt $0/Jun 3
Affirmed S (GIII) SA Jun 16 $100k g 3yo 8.5f Dirt $100/Jun 6
Possibly Perfect S SA Jun 16 $75k a 3&up f/m 10f Turf $0/Jun 6
Trillium S (GIII) WO Jun 16 $125k g 3&up f/m 8.5f AW $125/May 29
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June 17, 2019
Niagara S FL Jun 17 $50k g 3yo f S 6f Dirt $0/Jun 5
Karl Boyes Memorial Northwestern PA S PID Jun 17 $100k g 3&up 5.5f AW $0/Jun 5
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June 18, 2019
Coventry S (ENG-IIT) ASC Jun 18 $192k g 2yo 6f Turf $1,920/Jun 12
King’s Stand S (ENG-IT) ASC Jun 18 $640k g 3&up 5f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
Queen Anne S (ENG-IT) BC ASC Jun 18 $768k g 4&up 8f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
St James’s Palace S (ENG-IT) ASC Jun 18 $640k g 3yo c 8f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
Wolferton H S ASC Jun 18 $128k g 4&up 10f Turf $640/Jun 11
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June 19, 2019
Duke of Cambridge S (ENG-IIT) ASC Jun 19 $224k g 4&up f/m 8f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
Jersey S (ENG-IIIT) ASC Jun 19 $115k g 3yo 7f Turf $1,152/Jun 12
Prince of Wales’s S (ENG-IT) BC ASC Jun 19 $960k g 4&up 10f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
Queen Mary S (ENG-IIT) ASC Jun 19 $141k g 2yo f 5f Turf $1,408/Jun 12
Queen’s Vase S (ENG-IIT) ASC Jun 19 $288k g 3yo 14f Turf $2,880/Jun 12
Christiana S Del Jun 19 $50k g 3yo f 8.5f Turf $0/Jun 8
Hoosier Breeders Sophomore Fillies Ind Jun 19 $100k a 3yo f S 8.5f Dirt $100/Jun 5
Hoosier Breeders Sophomore S Ind Jun 19 $100k a 3yo S 8.5f Dirt $100/Jun 5
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June 20, 2019
Gold Cup (ENG-IT) ASC Jun 20 $640k g 4&up 20f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
Hampton Court S (ENG-IIIT) ASC Jun 20 $115k g 3yo 10f Turf $1,152/Jun 13
Norfolk S (ENG-IIT) BC ASC Jun 20 $128k g 2yo 5f Turf $1,280/Jun 13
Ribblesdale S (ENG-IIT) ASC Jun 20 $256k g 3yo f 12f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
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June 21, 2019
Albany S (ENG-IIIT) ASC Jun 21 $115k g 2yo f 6f Turf $1,152/Jun 14
Commonwealth Cup (ENG-IT) ASC Jun 21 $640k g 3yo 6f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
Coronation S (ENG-IT) ASC Jun 21 $640k g 3yo f 8f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
King Edward VII S (ENG-IIT) ASC Jun 21 $288k g 3yo c/g 12f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
Chantilly S AsD Jun 21 $30k g 3yo f 6f Dirt Not Available
Spotted Horse EvD Jun 21 $75k g 3&up f/m 8f Dirt $0/Jun 7
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June 22, 2019
Get Happy Mister S ArP Jun 22 $30k e 3yo S 6f Dirt Not Available
Vannacide S ArP Jun 22 $30k e 3yo f S 6f Dirt Not Available
Chesham S ASC Jun 22 $115k g 2yo 7f Turf $576/Jun 17
Diamond Jubilee S (ENG-IT) BC ASC Jun 22 $768k g 4&up 6f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
Hardwicke S (ENG-IIT) ASC Jun 22 $288k g 4&up 12f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
Windsor Castle S ASC Jun 22 $115k g 2yo 5f Turf $576/Jun 16
Golden Boy S AsD Jun 22 $30k g 3yo 6f Dirt $50/Jun 11
Wild Applause Bel Jun 22 $100k g 3yo f 8f Turf $100/Jun 8
Dark Star Cup Cby Jun 22 $50k g 3&up 6.5f Dirt $0/Jun 14
Hoist Her Flag S Cby Jun 22 $50k g 3&up f/m 6f Dirt $0/Jun 14
Lady Canterbury S Cby Jun 22 $100k g 3&up f/m 8f Turf $0/Jun 14
Mystic Lake Derby Cby Jun 22 $200k g 3yo 8f Turf $0/Jun 14
Mystic Lake Mile Cby Jun 22 $100k g 3&up 8f Turf $0/Jun 14
Roxelana S CD Jun 22 #$120k a 3&up f/m 6f Dirt $0/Jun 15
Evangeline Mile EvD Jun 22 $100k g 3&up 8f Dirt $0/Jun 7
Eatontown S (GIIIT) Mth Jun 22 $150k g 3&up f/m 8.5f Turf $150/Jun 8
Lady’s Secret S Mth Jun 22 $100k g 3&up f/m 8.5f Dirt $100/Jun 8
Philip H. Iselin S (GIII) Mth Jun 22 $150k g 3&up 8.5f Dirt $150/Jun 8
United Nations S (GIT) Mth Jun 22 $300k g 3&up 11f Turf $300/Jun 8
Crowd Pleaser S PRX Jun 22 $100k g 3yo S 8.5f Turf $100/Jun 8
Power By Far S PRX Jun 22 $100k g 3&up f/m S 5f Turf $100/Jun 8
Turning for Home S PRX Jun 22 $75k g 3&up 8.5f Dirt $100/Jun 8
Mountain Top Futurity Rui Jun 22 $175k e 2yo S 5f Dirt Closed on Feb 1.
Dream of Summer S SA Jun 22 $100k g 4&up f/m S 8f Dirt $100/Jun 13
Snow Chief S SA Jun 22 $200k g 3yo S 9f Turf $100/Jun 13
Wilshire S (GIIIT) SA Jun 22 $100k g 3&up f/m 8f Turf $100/Jun 13
George Lewis Memorial S Tdn Jun 22 $75k g 3&up S 8.5f Dirt $50/Jun 12
J. William Petro Memorial H Tdn Jun 22 $75k g 3&up f/m S 8.5f Dirt $50/Jun 12
Ohio Derby (GIII) Tdn Jun 22 $500k g 3yo 9f Dirt $0/Jun 12
Singspiel S (GIIIT) WO Jun 22 $125k g 3&up 12f Turf $125/Jun 5
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June 23, 2019
New York Stallion S (Cupecoy’s Joy Div.) Bel Jun 23 $150k g 3yo f R 7f Turf $150/Jun 8
New York Stallion S (Spectacular Bid Div.) Bel Jun 23 $150k g 3yo R 7f Turf $150/Jun 8
Washington State Legislators S EmD Jun 23 $50k g 3&up f/m 6.5f Dirt $100/Jun 15
Takarazuka Kinen (JPN-IT) BC JRA Jun 23 $2,827k a 3&up 11f Turf Closed on May 7.
Lane’s End Danny Shifflett Scholarship S LS Jun 23 $50k g 3&up f/m S 7.5f Turf $0/Jun 8
Texas Stallion S (Pan Zareta Div.) LS Jun 23 $65k g 2yo f R 5f Dirt Closed on Jan 1.
Texas Stallion S (Staunch Avenger Div.) LS Jun 23 $65k g 2yo c/g R 5f Dirt Closed on Jan 1.
Wayne Hanks Memorial S LS Jun 23 $50k g 3&up S 6.5f Dirt $0/Jun 8
Dan Horn H Mth Jun 23 $75k g 3&up S 8.5f Turf $0/Jun 15
Melair S SA Jun 23 $200k g 3yo f S 8.5f Dirt $100/Jun 13
San Juan Capistrano S (GIIIT) SA Jun 23 $100k g 3&up abt 14f Turf $100/Jun 13
Siren Lure S SA Jun 23 $75k a 3&up abt 6.5f Turf $0/Jun 13
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June 24, 2019
Ontario County S FL Jun 24 $50k g 3yo S 6f Dirt $0/Jun 12

June 28, 2019
Duke City Sprint Alb Jun 28 $50k g 3yo 5.5f Dirt $200/Jun 19
Lady Angela S WO Jun 28 $100k g 3yo f S 7f AW $100/Jun 12
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June 29, 2019
O.D. McDonald H Alb Jun 29 $75k g 3&up S 7f Dirt $200/Jun 19
Chicago H (GIII) AP Jun 29 $100k g 3&up 7f AW $100/Jun 19
R.J. Speers S AsD Jun 29 $30k g 3&up 7f Dirt Not Available
Mother Goose S (GII) Bel Jun 29 $250k g 3yo f 8.5f Dirt $250/Jun 15
Perfect Sting S Bel Jun 29 $100k g 4&up f/m 8f Turf $100/Jun 15
Bashford Manor S (GIII) CD Jun 29 $125k g 2yo 6f Dirt $100/Jun 15
Debutante S CD Jun 29 $125k g 2yo f 6f Dirt $100/Jun 15
Kelly’s Landing S CD Jun 29 #$120k a 3&up 7f Dirt $0/Jun 22
Azalea S GP Jun 29 $75k g 3yo f 7f Dirt $0/Jun 16
Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint GP Jun 29 $75k g 3&up 5f Turf $0/Jun 16
Carry Back S GP Jun 29 $75k g 3yo 7f Dirt $0/Jun 16
Princess Rooney (GII) BC GP Jun 29 $250k g 3&up f/m 7f Dirt $0/Jun 16
Smile Sprint (GIII) GP Jun 29 $250k g 3&up 6f Dirt $0/Jun 16
Bertrando S LRC Jun 29 $100k g 3&up S 8f Dirt $100/Jun 22
Friendly Lover H Mth Jun 29 $75k g 3&up S 6f Dirt $0/Jun 22
Daniel Stearns Cleveland Gold Cup Tdn Jun 29 $75k g 3yo S 9f Dirt $50/Jun 19
Charlie Barley S WO Jun 29 $100k g 3yo 8f Turf $0/Jun 19
Dance Smartly S (GIIT) WO Jun 29 $175k g 3&up f/m 10f Turf $175/Jun 12
Highlander S (GIT) WO Jun 29 $300k g 3&up 6f Turf $300/Jun 12
King Edward S (GIIT) WO Jun 29 $175k g 3&up 8f Turf $175/Jun 12
Queen’s Plate S WO Jun 29 $1,000k g 3yo R 10f AW Closed on May 1.
Zadracarta S WO Jun 29 $100k g 3&up f/m S 7f Turf $0/Jun 19
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June 30, 2019
Front Range ArP Jun 30 $20k e 3&up 6f Dirt $50/Jun 23
Saginaw Bel Jun 30 $100k g 4&up S 8.5f Dirt $100/Jun 15
Fred Jones CTM Jun 30 $50k g 3&up 8.5f Dirt $100/Jun 20
Shirley Vargo CTM Jun 30 $75k g 3&up f/m 8f Dirt $100/Jun 20
Budweiser S EmD Jun 30 $50k g 3&up 6.5f Dirt $100/Jun 22
Chris Loseth HsT Jun 30 $50k g 3yo 8.5f Dirt $100/Jun 22
CBC Sho (JPN-IIIT) JRA Jun 30 $737k a 3&up 6f Turf Closed on May 21.
Radio Nikkei Sho (JPN-IIIT) JRA Jun 30 $712k a 3yo 9f Turf Closed on May 21.
Open Mind S Mth Jun 30 $75k g 3yo f 8.5f Turf $0/Jun 22
Bison City S WO Jun 30 $225k g 3yo f R 8.5f AW $225/Jun 12
Dominion Day S (GIII) WO Jun 30 $125k g 3&up 10f AW $125/Jun 12

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Monday, May 27 2019. It’s Memorial Day weekend and to commemorate the occasion, Santa Anita will be hosting a card with 3 Grade 1 races including the Gamely, Shoemaker Mile, and Hollywood Gold Cup, which used to be at Hollywood Park before it closed.
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The Gamely is a 9 furlong turf race for fillies and mares, 3 and up. Favored is the mare Vasilika, 3 for 3 this year in graded stakes races at a mile. She also won a G1 at 10f last year and other graded races at 9f so the distance is not a problem.
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Challenging her primarily will be Rymska, another multiple graded stakes winner, and the filly Ollie’s Candy, who won the Summer Oaks here a year ago and was runner up in the Del Mar Oaks. This will be her first race since then, a 7 month layoff.
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There are several other graded stakes winners in the 8 horse field, so it’s shaping up to be a very exciting and competitive race. Rymska has top LP and will be tough to beat in the stretch.
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The Gold Cup for 3up at 10f will favor John Sadler’s Gift Box, who has been excellent since transferring from New York, winning the San Antonio and then the Big Cap here last month.
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Todd Pletcher is trying to follow suit with last year’s Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso, in his first trip west of Kentucky where he ran mediocrely in the Derby, before a solid 4th in the Belmont.
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Getting by these two will be difficult for the field, but the Doug O’neill frontrunner Blitzkrieg will try to stay in front of them to get the win in his first dirt race. He has been excelling on turf recently so this move is surprising.
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New Orleans Handicap winner Core Beliefs returns after 5 east coast races, and was last seen here running 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby last year. Closer Lone Sailor also makes his first trip out west after 2nd in the Oaklawn Handicap and is looking for a fast pace up front.
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Higher Power will also make his first start west of Oklahoma, after winning an Optional Claimer, his 2nd career win. Mongolian Groom should have stayed here after his 3rd in the Big Cap instead of inexplicably going to Charles Town to run 5th in the Classic.
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Higher Power has the top LP, just edging out Lone Sailor. Gift Box, Vino Rosso and Mongolian Groom are close behind. Blitzkrieg, with top EP, and Core Beliefs, 2nd in EP, are the only ones with LP not in the 90s.
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The Shoemaker Mile is a very competitive field of 9 3 and up, most of which are multiple graded stakes winners. The favorite is and probably should be Delta Prince, but he’s got his work cut out for him.
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The Shoemaker is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race so the winner will automatically get into the Breeders Cup Mile regardless of how they perform again until then.
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Get the Santa Anita Memorial Day Grid here free now.

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Saturday, May 25. Louisiana Legends Night is the call to order tonight at Evangeline Downs. A great place to have night racing, which more tracks in the south should follow suit, and a great night of racing.
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It’s only a 10 race card, but count them: 8 stakes races in various categories, including turf, and the other 2 races are MSW’s for 2yo and 2yof respectively, so there is excitement from top to bottom on the card.
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The card will begin at 6:50PM ET according to our calculations, so you have plenty of time to get ready by immersing yourself in the Grid PP’s and picking the winners.
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Get the Evangeline Grid here free now.

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Friday, May 17, Pimlico. It’s that time of year: early summer. Pimlico is in full swing about to host the Preakness Stakes tomorrow, but before we even get to Saturday racing, they have a great card going on today with 4 graded stakes and 3 listed stakes in what is traditionally known as Black Eyed Susan day.
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But while you’re swilling that harshly bitter lemony alcoholic beverage, you can enjoy a lot of other great races, including the one before the BES. My favorite race of this weekend annually is the Pimlico Special, born in 1938 in the historic match race between Seabiscuit and War Admiral. Watch the movie or read the book if you don’t get the reference.
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This year’s field has 13 older horses after a scratch going 10 furlongs on the historic Pimlico dirt course. What makes this field great is that there is absolutely no clear cut favorite, but rather 4 horses with morning lines between 4.5 and 6. The rest are all at double digit odds but some of them should be much lower.
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YOU’RE TO BLAME will likely be the post time favorite, since he is the winner of a 13f G3 race 3 back, following that up with 2nd in a 12f stakes and then won an OCM. He’s also top in Stamina and LP in the Grid.
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TENFOLD will be another virtual co-favorite as he returns to the scene of the crime where he placed 3rd in the Preakness here a year ago at 26-1. His last win was the Jim Dandy G2 last July and comes off a disappointing 7th in the Oaklawn Hcp.
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FLAMEAWAY is another at single digits and was also on the Triple Crown trail last year. He was 2nd in the Blue Grass G2 before an awful Derby and finished ¾ behind Tenfold in the Dandy.
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RALLY CRY is the low ML at 4.5-1 and has good 9f stakes experience but his last win was August when he was in top form before his 2nd in the Woodward G1, and he usually fades down the stretch. He has top Grid EP but this field has plenty of speed in it.
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CORDMAKER at 12-1 ML is 2nd in LP and Stamina in the Grid and is a Maryland master, coming off 2 wins at Laurel and looks like he will like the extra distance that he hasn’t raced at before.
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CARLINO also at 12-1 is 3rd in LP and Stamina, just 1 point behind and has performed well at classic distances, last finishing 4th in the JCGC G1 last September, but he hasn’t raced since then.
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WAIT FOR IT at 15-1 is also top 5 in LP/Stamina and also 2nd in Power and 1st in Speed, so he can’t be ignored, but he’s a front runner who hasn’t raced longer than 8.5f so is a question mark.
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JUST WHISTLE at 20-1 rounds out the top LP and Stamina Club. His best career race was probably a fading 3rd in the Peter Pan.
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UNBRIDLED JUAN at 12-1 will get some action as a multiple mid-atlantic stakes winner. He has a win and 3rd at 9f recently but comes off a subpar 7th in the Charles Town Classic.
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The rest of the field will need to take a previously unachieved step up in class to contend here today, but as you can see, over half the field can be considered at least a contender for some purse money. So it’s a very competitive race should be good for betting.
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Get the Pimlico Friday Grid here free to follow along with the stakes action!

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Thursday, May 16, 2018. Pimlico Park. Pimlico’s big weekend of the year, which we always fear may be their last, is getting underway on Friday with the Black Eyed Susan, Miss Preakness, Distaff, and my favorite, the Pimlico Special, inaugurated at the 1938 match race between Seabiscuit and War Admiral.
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But everyone wants to hear about the Preakness Stakes on Saturday right? You’ve come to the right place. Other outfits are scrambling to find their champion, not having a Kentucky Derby champion, real or by DQ, to rely on and hype up, as if they’re providing some kind of insight.
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After all, a front end running Kentucky Derby champion wins the Preakness every time except when coached by Todd Pletcher. And this year, we have not the real nor the fake Derby champion running in this leg, because it’s not worth it for either to do so, especially the real champion who was injured by a horse running again here.
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The 1st part of this all-inclusive analytical study is how Kentucky Derby horses have historically fared in the Preakness, which is still relevant because there are 4 such horses in the field of 13. How have Derby entrants fared before? According to the chart below, they’ve done very well.
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You can see that the Derby winner finishes well, which is irrelevant this year. Also that the rest of the Derby top 4 normally finish well here, which is also somewhat irrelevant unless you count Improbable’s 4th place finish by DQ. Such horse rarely runs in the Preakness, but normally finish well.
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The next graphic tells a more complete story, especially as it relates to this year when the Derby top 4 are missing from the race. Here are the Preakness top 4 in the Baffert Era:
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In every single year (18 of 22) that the Preakness winner had also run in the Kentucky Derby, the winner had run top 6 in the Derby. So Improbable, the highest Derby runner at 4 or 5 depending on how you see it, is your champion right? Probably, not for certain, but it would be Improbable for him to not run top 4.
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Also, all of the 25 2nd and 3rd place runners that were Derby entrants, except for 2, were top 7 in the Kentucky Derby. Quick review on who the Derby entrants are this year:
1 War of Will 8th
4 Improbable 5th
9 Bodexpress 14th
13 Win Win win 10th
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Because of the stats we showed above, all of these are fairly good candidates to finish in the money in the Preakness, despite their Derby finish. Why? Because the Kentucky Derby is the field with the best classic distance 3yo’s, not the Preakness. But only 1 of them is a win candidate: Improbable. The others have a chance, as listed below.
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At this point we need to look at the other 9 horses that make up the majority of the field and combine them since statistically they will make up likely 2-3 of the top 4 finishers. Let’s go ahead and comment on the preferred horses and rank them in order of their preference.
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4 Improbable (RAN, Baffert). This is an excellent candidate to win the Preakness. He’s top in the Grid in power and 2nd in Stamina and LP, he’s from RAN sireline (13 of past 21 Preakness winners) and he’s coached by Baffert (7 of past 22).
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7 Alwaysmining (API, Kelley Rubley). We’ve been high on this horse all year, as he’s been prepping for this race all year, in stellar fashion. He’s won 6 straight races at Laurel, the last 5 of which were stakes races, the last 3 of which were at a mile or longer. Last out he blew away a stakes field at 9f by 11 lengths. If the Preakness was at Laurel like it probably should be, I’d have crowned him champ already. He’s first in Speed and 2nd in Power in the Grid.
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9 Bodexpress (RAN, G. Delgado). The horse appears to be inconsistent on paper, but if you look at the inconsistencies, it was his first race out, and 2 races in the mud, including the Derby. Other than that, all of his PF’s are in the 90s. His last race near this distance was 2nd in the Fla Derby G1, just 3.5 lengths back from Ky Derby winner Maximum Security. Excellent ITM candidate and great odds.
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2 Bourbon War (API, Mark Hennig). We need to include a late runner in this superfecta, so why not go with the top LP and Stamina rating? We’ve been hyping this horse for months as the top LP but fact is, he didn’t make the Kentucky Derby after running 4th in the Fla Derby.
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12 Anothertwistafate (SCAT, Blaine Wright). It’s hard to ignore this horse who is both consistently fast up front and good overall. He was 2nd in two G3’s before this and won the El Camino Derby before that. He’s top 5 in all categories across the board in the Grid.
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3 Warrior’s Charge (RAN, Brad Cox). The only thing I like better than a fresh triple crown race contender in this race, is a winner, and this horse is both. I doubt he can win but he’s improving and can do very well and even finish in the money.
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In this case it seems like the only official key horse is Improbable, but I consider all of these to be key at certain positions. Anything can happen in this type of race, so I will be wheeling some horses at the bottom of the superfecta and probably the tri as well. Here are the extra wheel horses to use.
Owendale, Signalman, Laughing Fox, Win Win Win.
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Horses that should not be used:
Weak of Will, Market Ding, Everleast
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So there you have it, the top runners will be a mix of Derby and non Derby entrants and some of each to choose from. Unfortunately, the ML oddsmaker agrees with me on 3 of my top 5. But they disagree on some others, and hopefully the public will keep Weak of Will’s odds low because he’s a great throwout.
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How does one arrive at such a conclusion? It’s simple, we used the historical stats above, and also The Grid which gives us Performance Figures as well as composites. It looks something like this.
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If you want the Grid for all the races at Pimlico, as well, as every race day for Belmont, Churchill, Keeneland, Gulfstream, Santa Anita, Del Mar, Saratoga, and other major tracks and race days as well, click here to see how easy it is to get it.
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Monday, May 13. Churchill Downs. The annual running of the Derby is complete even if the bickering is not over yet. We posted an article covering all of that last week and we all know who really won, so this is about the final results as a whole and what predictions we had beforehand.
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Since there was some chaos and the real winner was taken down, we’ll include the top 6 in our final analysis. Wagers and purse money both include the top 5 that cross the wire after DQ’s, minus any who were disqualified. So here’s the list:
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Maximum Security
Country House
Code of Honor
Tacitus
Improbable
Game Winner
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In that list are the real top 5 finishers and the post DQ top 5 finishers, in the correct running order. In other words, the exotics that should have paid out, and the exotics that did pay starting with #2. What did we say about these horses in our predictions, and most notably, The Grid?
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The Grid lists the top two finishers as having the top two LP and Stamina ratings, in that order. No doubt the best indicators for horses running their longest career race. So the Grid would have easily given you the winning exacta had the stewards not issued the bs DQ. They owe you an apology for that.
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The next four in the bunch were all in the top 10 of at least 2 categories Stamina, LP, and Power. 3 of these top 6, including Maximum Security, were also top 5 in EP and Speed. So it’s not like any of the top 6 runners were any surprise if using the Grid.
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In the full form Kentucky Derby Grid, 4 of them were ranked top 5 overall, with Code of Honor ranked 7 and Country House 11. Ironically, Country House was the only one not qualified under the critical criteria to be Derby champ, but we already discussed his merits above as a dangerous contender and will do so again below, and the fact is he was not the real winner.
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The next most relevant ranking has to be our own Derby Dozen, which had only one of these not in our top 6 after scratches, and even that one was still in the top 12, after you cross out the horses that didn’t race, which is only fair. It’s all about those who actually run the race.
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That’s right, except for show horse Code of Honor at # 12, all of the top 6 finishers were ranked in our top 6. Yes we did even have Country House in the top 6.That’s kind of amazing if you think about it. It didn’t surprise me since we’ve had similar results for the past five years in those rankings, but there is always one or two not in our top 5.
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In another article we highlighted the importance of jockeys and trainers. Specifically it underscored the short list of trainers and jockeys that had actually won the Kentucky Derby before. The list of jockeys was only two, and both of them finished in the top six. The others are highly ranked national jockeys that were top ten in earning beforehand.
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The list of trainers wasn’t that much larger but due to mainly the Baffert trio and Pletcher duo they covered a third of the field. Out of the top six finishers, all were prior Derby winners except for two of them that were well qualified horsemen.
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The first was (real) winner Jason Servis, who we had erroneously listed as a prior winner because his brother John with the same first initial has won before, and we didn’t realize it was a different man until seeing him on Derby day interviews. The second was Bill Mott, who has won just about every other big race and is a hall of fame trainer.
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Another of our most popular annual articles called Major Prep Winners in the Baffert Era (starting 1997) showed the importance of finishing in the money, particularly in the top 2, of the final Prep race. Sure enough, 4 of these top 6 were top 2 in a Big 5 major prep, and the other 2 both finished 3rd in a Big 5. Maximum Security won his final prep, the Florida Derby.
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The bottom line is that the Grid had the horses very well rated, as did our Derby Dozen and other analyses, and none of that is new. It happens like that every year now and in almost every big race that we over analyze beforehand. The major problem we had this year was the stewards who erroneously decided to take the winner down along with your hard earned money.
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You can see without their intervention, that everything went almost exactly as it should have, and if using our information here, you would have won at least one or two great exotic bets. Considering how high we’ve been on Country House all year you should have had something on him at 65-1. Now we move on to the Preakness Stakes and plan to kick ass on that again.