Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday May 11. Belmont Park has its first big race day of the meet with the headline race being the Man O War G1 which features some of the nation’s best turf routers. 3 other G3 races fill the card along with the now listed Runhappy with some great older horses.
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Triple Crown watchers will be interested in the Peter Pan G3, a race for 3yo’s that is the main prep for the Belmont Stakes. The field is only full of 5 horses that didn’t make the Kentucky Derby this year but it bears watching.
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Check out the Belmont Grid here free to make your picks and follow along with the racing action.

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019. It’s been less than 4 days since America’s biggest race, in which there was an unprecedented disqualification of the actual winner following an objection and a lengthy stewards review, followed by an appeal which was quickly denied, followed by arguments across the world, followed by tempers which are still flaring.
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I’ve had people that used to be friendly to me call me every insulting name you can think because I didn’t agree with the stewards decision. But it’s not just me who disagrees, it’s by far the majority of experienced horse people in the industry, including riders and trainers alike, and speed figures legend Andrew Beyer.
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The sheeple who parrot the cited rule and insult everyone who disagrees with the disqualification, don’t understand some things. First, a lane is an imaginary curved line that is completely subjective to what is going on with the rest of the field. Second, a horse can’t claim ownership of a lane from a horse that is in front of it, only one that is adjacent in some manner.
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There’s a reason there has never been such a disqualification in the history of the Kentucky Derby. It is because such lanes are hard to determine with 20 horses in the field, all changing directions continuously. It has to be concrete proof that there was interference that cost another horse the victory. There was no such thing in this year’s edition.
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And for those sheeple saying there was a previous DQ, yes there was one and it was for illegal drug use, nothing to do with running the race. So this DQ was unprecedented and there is good reason for that. The precedent that has always been used is that there has to be legitimate interference, and as usual, there was none.
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Let me put it this way, I’ve watched every Kentucky Derby for the past 30+ years, and even seen many before that on various video archives. Every one that I’ve seen, and probably every one in history, has had bumping and grinding, early and late, and at least 2 horses clipping heels. And yet, nobody has ever been disqualified. This year what was different? Nothing except the incorrect decision by stewards who don’t understand the sport or this particular race.
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Interestingly, the sheeple who parrot the “right call” mantra over and over until it makes you nauseous, use the following picture to make their point. But in fact, it shows exactly why they are wrong. It clearly shows War of Will (1) running up on the heels of Maximum Security (7). There is no possible way under the rules that #1 has the right of way or ownership of that lane, because he is clearly BEHIND #7.
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That was the official infraction according to the stewards, but another picture the sheeple prefer to use is the one from the straight ahead angle showing War of Will going sideways behind Maximum Security. This wasn’t the infraction, although it should have been the official DQ infraction for WOW.
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They pretend that at this point Max Sec made everybody move out. However, this picture is from the final turn when WOW veered out, two lengths behind the leader Max Sec who could not possibly have had anything to do with it. These other pictures show where WOW was on the rail before the incident, trailing Max Sec by several lengths a few seconds beforehand, and although the angle of the second picture makes them appear crowded, he is still 2 lengths behind the leader.
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The owner of Maximum Security, Gary West, said it best:
“I think when it’s all said and done and all the evidence is put on display, frame by frame in slow motion, you will find that the 1 horse (War of Will) actually caused the infraction, not our horse,” West said. “And … I believe it will eventually show that if the 1 horse would have finished ahead of our horse, we would have had every right in the world to claim an objection against the 1 horse.”
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Gary West is exactly right about that, but all of that should have been said and done by the officials during that eternity of a stewards review, including frame by frame slo-mo, so that they could come up with the right conclusion. Instead, they came up with the exact wrong decision. I don’t know the person who made this video but he’s also exactly right in his analysis.
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War of Will clearly did NOT have the right of way, as shown in the pictures, and his jockey was at fault for running up on the heels of a competitor, a dangerous and unnecessary risk that could have cost both the rider and his horse serious injury or even life. In addition, before that War of Will also jumped to his left unexpectedly, as Maximum Security did a few seconds later.
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Another mostly untold part of the story is that there was a man standing in an unauthorized area of the infield near the quarter pole which is near the end of the last turn. He appears to be taking a picture in this area in which viewers and photography is unauthorized because of it being so close to the track in the very spot where the field is crowded together making their moves on the final turn.
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In short, it’s the most dangerous spot of the track and that’s why you normally don’t see anyone standing there or flashing photographs because one or more of the horses might get spooked. And that appears to be what happened, as War of Will unexpectedly jumped to his right, away from the bystander pictured, after keeping a very predictable and stable course prior to that.
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This brings up another important point. With the sheeple parroting the word “lane” ad nauseum, again this is an imaginary line surrounding the horse. There are no actual lanes in horse racing like there are in track and field, because horses don’t run in lanes and they would ignore the paint even if they saw it. They’re trained wild animals that run in all kinds of directions according to many different factors.
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The most prominent factors in determining a horse’s course are where the other horses are running, how close they are to other horses, and what the jockey is doing to control them via hands, reins, body movement, and the use of the whip of course. Other factors can include fans and other people or animals nearby. Note that you will never see dogs anywhere near the horse track during races.
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The bottom line is that horses don’t run in “lanes.” They run in general direction where the rider coaxes them too, in a curved orbit around the track, from the gate to the finish line. In the process, the riders in general, try to not run into each other because nobody wants to fall off a horse and get trampled.
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In this case of this year’s Kentucky Derby, Tyler Gaffalione took dangerous and unnecessary risks with War of Will, first veering off the rail and to bully and push 2 horses to the outside, and then running up on the heels of the winner instead of picking a clear way around him. If you’re going to ride the rail to save ground, that’s fine, and many have done that successfully such as Calvin Borail.
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But often you get pinned there in a large field and have to wait until somewhere in the stretch for an opening to get through. You can’t just force an opening when it’s not there. Had he waited 1 more second from the infraction point, he could have stayed on the rail and had it to himself and may have had a chance without clipping heels which slowed him down and caused minor injury.
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May 2019 NTRA Graded Stakes schedule and highlights:
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May 3: Kentucky Oaks G1 and big undercard
May 4: Kentucky Derby G1 and massive undercard
May 11: Man O War G1 and Peter Pan G3 at Belmont
May 17: Black Eyed Susan G2 and Pimlico Special G3
May 18: Preakness G1 and big undercard at Pimlico
May 25: Louisiana Legends day at Evangeline
May 27: Gold Cup G1, Shoemaker G1, Gamely G1 at Santa Anita

Full stakes schedule below:

May 1, 2019
Ascot Paradise S ASC May 1 $47k g 4&up 8f Turf Closed on Apr 24.
Longines Sagaro S (ENG-IIIT) ASC May 1 $77k g 4&up 16f Turf Closed on Apr 24.
Merriebelle Stable Pavilion S (ENG-IIIT) ASC May 1 $102k g 3yo 6f Turf Closed on Apr 24.
Kentucky Juvenile S CD May 1 $125k g 2yo 5f Dirt Closed on Apr 13.

May 2, 2019
Opening Verse S CD May 2 #$115k a 3&up 8f Turf Closed on Apr 13.
Unbridled Sydney S CD May 2 $125k g 3&up f/m 5.5f Turf Closed on Apr 13.

May 3, 2019
Flat Out Bel May 3 $100k g 4&up 11f Dirt Closed on Apr 20.
Alysheba S (GII) CD May 3 $400k g 4&up 8.5f Dirt Closed on Apr 13.
Edgewood S presented by Forcht Bank (GIIIT) CD May 3 $250k g 3yo f 8.5f Turf Closed on Apr 13.
Eight Belles S (GII) CD May 3 $250k g 3yo f 7f Dirt Closed on Apr 13.
La Troienne S (GI) CD May 3 $500k g 4&up f/m 8.5f Dirt Closed on Apr 13.
Longines Kentucky Oaks (GI) CD May 3 $1,250k g 3yo f 9f Dirt Closed on Apr 13.
Twin Spires Turf Sprint (GIIT) CD May 3 $250k g 3&up 5.5f Turf Closed on Apr 13.
Equine Sales Oaks EvD May 3 $75k g 3yo f R 8f Dirt Closed on Apr 19.
Oaklawn Mile OP May 3 $250k g 4&up 8f Dirt Closed on Apr 24.

May 4, 2019
Fort Marcy S (GIIIT) Bel May 4 $150k g 4&up 9f Turf Closed on Apr 20.
Sheepshead Bay S (GIIT) Bel May 4 $200k g 4&up f/m 11f Turf Closed on Apr 20.
Westchester S (GIII) Bel May 4 $200k g 4&up 8f Dirt Closed on Apr 20.
Tall Stack S BTP May 4 $75k g 3yo S 6.5f Dirt Closed on Apr 24.
American Turf presented by Ram Trucks (GIIT) CD May 4 $400k g 3yo 8.5f Turf Closed on Apr 13.
Churchill Downs S (GI) CD May 4 $500k g 4&up 7f Dirt Closed on Apr 13.
Humana Distaff (GI) CD May 4 $500k g 4&up f/m 7f Dirt Closed on Apr 13.
Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (GI) CD May 4 $3,000k g 3yo 10f Dirt $200,000/May 1
Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (GIIT) CD May 4 $400k g 4&up f/m 8f Turf Closed on Apr 13.
Old Forester Turf Classic (GIT) CD May 4 $1,000k g 4&up 9f Turf Closed on Apr 13.
Pat Day Mile presented by LG&E and KU (GIII) CD May 4 $400k g 3yo 8f Dirt Closed on Apr 13.
Equine Sales Derby EvD May 4 $75k g 3yo c/g R 8f Dirt Closed on Apr 19.
Al Swihart Memorial S Fon May 4 $20k g 3&up f/m 6.5f Dirt Closed on Apr 27.
Coors Starter Fon May 4 $10k g 4&up R 9f Dirt Closed on Apr 27.
English Channel S GP May 4 $75k g 3yo 8.5f Turf Closed on Apr 21.
Honey Ryder S GP May 4 $75k g 3yo f 8.5f Turf Closed on Apr 21.
David Semmes Memorial Hurdle (GIIT) GrM May 4 $75k g 4&up 17f Turf Closed on Apr 22.
Steeplethon S GrM May 4 $40k g 5&up 24f Turf Closed on Apr 22.
Virginia Gold Cup Timber GrM May 4 $100k g 5&up 32f Turf Closed on Apr 22.
Brighouse Belles S HsT May 4 $50k g 3&up f/m 6.5f Dirt Closed on Apr 27.
Jim Coleman Province S HsT May 4 $50k g 3yo 6.5f Dirt Closed on Apr 27.
Ross McLeod S HsT May 4 $50k g 3yo f 6.5f Dirt Closed on Apr 27.
Swift Thoroughbreds Inaugural S HsT May 4 $50k g 3&up 6.5f Dirt Closed on Apr 27.
Kyoto Shimbun Hai (JPN-IIT) JRA May 4 $1,023k a 3yo 11f Turf Closed on Mar 26.
Cliff Hanger S Mth May 4 $100k g 3&up 8f Turf Closed on Apr 20.
Arkansas Breeders’ Championship OP May 4 $200k g 3&up S 8.5f Dirt Closed on Apr 24.
Oaklawn Invitational OP May 4 $300k g 3yo 9f Dirt Not Available
Angels Flight S SA May 4 $75k a 3yo f 7f Dirt Closed on Apr 25.
Senorita S (GIIIT) SA May 4 $100k g 3yo f 8f Turf Closed on Apr 25.
Secretariat Memorial S SON May 4 $3,000 a 3&up 6f Dirt Not Available
Copper Top Futurity Sun May 4 $110k a 2yo S 4.5f Dirt Closed on Jan 31.
Sunland Park H Sun May 4 $150k g 3&up 9f Dirt Closed on Apr 26.
Inaugural H SuR May 4 $50k g 3&up 6.5f Dirt Closed on Apr 20.
FTBOA Ivanavinalot Florida Sire S Tam May 4 $100k g 3yo f S 8.32f Dirt Closed on Apr 20.
FTBOA Silver Charm Florida Sire S Tam May 4 $100k g 3yo c/g S 8.32f Dirt Closed on Apr 20.
Dr. T.F. Classen Memorial S Tdn May 4 $75k g 3&up f/m S 6f Dirt Closed on Apr 24.
Jacques Cartier S (GIII) WO May 4 $125k g 4&up 6f AW Closed on Apr 17.

May 5, 2019
Ruffian H (GII) Bel May 5 $250k g 4&up f/m 8f Dirt Closed on Apr 20.
NHK Mile Cup (JPN-IT) JRA May 5 $1,973k a 3yo 8f Turf Closed on Mar 26.
Hasta La Vista H TuP May 5 $30k g 3&up 15f Turf Closed on Apr 23.
Turf Paradise Open Spring Futurity TuP May 5 $30k a 2yo 5f Dirt Not Available

May 9, 2019
Flat Out Bel May 9 $100k g 4&up 11f Dirt Closed on Apr 20.

May 10, 2019
Goldfinch S PrM May 10 $50k g 3yo f 6f Dirt Closed on Apr 29.

May 11, 2019
Hanshin Cup S (GIII) AP May 11 $100k g 3&up 8f AW Closed on May 1.
Carey Group Buckhounds S ASC May 11 $58k g 4&up 12f Turf Closed on May 5.
Beaugay S (GIIIT) Bel May 11 $200k g 4&up f/m 8.5f Turf Closed on Apr 27.
Man o’ War (GIT) Bel May 11 $700k g 4&up 11f Turf Closed on Apr 27.
Peter Pan S (GIII) Bel May 11 $300k g 3yo 9f Dirt Closed on Apr 27.
Runhappy S Bel May 11 $150k g 4&up 6f Dirt Closed on Apr 27.
Vagrancy (GIII) Bel May 11 $200k g 4&up f/m 6.5f Dirt Closed on Apr 27.
Mamzelle S CD May 11 #$100k a 3yo f 5f Turf Closed on Apr 27.
It’s Only Money S CT May 11 $50k g 3&up S 4.5f Dirt Closed on May 1.
Big Drama S GP May 11 $100k g 3&up S 7f Dirt Closed on Apr 28.
Fantango Lady S HsP May 11 $20k a 3yo f S 6f Dirt Closed on May 3.
Keio Hai Spring Cup (JPN-IIT) JRA May 11 $1,115k a 4&up 7f Turf Closed on Mar 26.
Serena’s Song S Mth May 11 $75k g 3&up f/m 8.32f Dirt Closed on May 4.
Calvin Houghland Iroquois (GIT) PW May 11 $150k g 4&up 24f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
Marcellus Frost Champion Hurdle PW May 11 $100k g 4&up R 18f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
Margaret Currey Henley Hurdle S PW May 11 $50k g 4&up f/m 18f Turf Closed on Apr 29.
Santa Barbara S (GIIIT) SA May 11 $100k g 3&up f/m 12f Turf Closed on May 2.
Michael F. Rowland Memorial H Tdn May 11 $75k g 3&up S 6f Dirt Closed on May 1.
Ballade S WO May 11 $100k g 3&up f/m S 6f AW Closed on Apr 24.

May 12, 2019
Gold Fever S Bel May 12 $100k g 3yo 6f Dirt Closed on Apr 27.
Tomboy S BTP May 12 $75k g 3yo f S 8.5f Turf Closed on May 2.
Seattle S EmD May 12 $50k g 3yo f 6f Dirt Closed on May 4.
Victoria Mile (JPN-IT) JRA May 12 $1,973k a 4&up f/m 8f Turf Closed on Mar 26.
Long Branch S Mth May 12 $75k g 3yo 8.32f Dirt Closed on May 4.
Fran’s Valentine S SA May 12 $100k g 3&up f/m S 8f Turf Closed on May 2.
Budweiser H SuR May 12 $50k g 3&up f/m 4.5f Dirt Closed on Apr 28.
Fury S WO May 12 $125k g 3yo f R 7f AW Closed on Apr 24.

May 13, 2019
Jack Cole H SuR May 13 $60k g 3&up S 8f Dirt Closed on Apr 29.

May 17, 2019
Preservata S AsD May 17 $18k a 3&up f/m 5f Dirt $0/May 7
Skunktail S HsP May 17 $20k a 3yo S 6f Dirt $0/May 10
Adena Springs Miss Preakness S (GIII) Pim May 17 $150k g 3yo f 6f Dirt $0/May 7
Allaire duPont Distaff S (GIII) Pim May 17 $150k g 3&up f/m 9f Dirt $0/May 7
Black-Eyed Susan S (GII) Pim May 17 $250k g 3yo f 9f Dirt $0/May 7
Hilltop S Pim May 17 $100k g 3yo f 8f Turf $100/May 7
Jim McKay Turf Sprint Pim May 17 $100k g 3&up 5f Turf $100/May 7
Pimlico Special (GIII) Pim May 17 $300k g 3&up 10f Dirt $0/May 7
Skipat S Pim May 17 $100k g 3&up f/m 6f Dirt $0/May 7
Golden Circle S PrM May 17 $50k g 3yo 6f Dirt Closed on May 4.

May 18, 2019
Magic d’Oro S AsD May 18 $18k a 3&up 5f Dirt $0/May 8
Soaring Softly S (GIIIT) Bel May 18 $100k g 3yo f 7f Turf Closed on May 4.
10,000 Lakes S Cby May 18 $50k g 3&up c/g S 6f Dirt $0/May 10
Lady Slipper S Cby May 18 $50k g 3&up f/m S 6f Dirt $0/May 10
Louisville (GIIIT) CD May 18 $100k g 3&up 12f Turf $100/May 8
Fancy Buckles S CT May 18 $50k g 3&up f/m S 4.5f Dirt $50/May 8
Musical Romance S GP May 18 $100k g 3&up f/m S 7f Dirt Closed on May 5.
Nebraska Queen’s S HsP May 18 $20k a 3&up f/m S 8f Dirt $0/May 10
Heian S (JPN-III) JRA May 18 $673k a 4&up 9.5f Dirt Closed on Apr 9.
Politely S Mth May 18 $75k g 3&up f/m 5.5f Turf $0/May 11
Chick Lang S (GIII) Pim May 18 $200k g 3yo 6f Dirt $0/May 7
Dixie S (GIIT) Pim May 18 $250k g 3&up 8.5f Turf $100/May 7
Gallorette S (GIIIT) Pim May 18 $150k g 3&up f/m 8.5f Turf $100/May 7
James W. Murphy S Pim May 18 $100k g 3yo 8f Turf $100/May 7
LARC Sir Barton S Pim May 18 $100k g 3yo R 8.5f Dirt $0/May 7
Maryland Sprint S (GIII) Pim May 18 $150k g 3&up 6f Dirt $0/May 7
Preakness S (GI) Pim May 18 $1,500k g 3yo 9.5f Dirt $150,000/May 15
Searching S Pim May 18 $100k g 3&up f/m 12f Turf $100/May 7
The Very One S Pim May 18 $100k g 3&up f/m 5f Turf $100/May 7
Radnor Hunt Cup Timber Rad May 18 $35k g 4&up 26f Turf Closed on May 6.
Lazaro Barrera S (GIII) SA May 18 $100k g 3yo 7f Dirt $100/May 9
Selene S (GIII) WO May 18 $125k g 3yo f 8.5f AW Closed on May 1.

May 19, 2019
Auburn S EmD May 19 $50k g 3yo c/g 6f Dirt $100/May 11
Alcatraz S GG May 19 $75k g 3yo 8f Turf $50/May 9
Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (JPN-IT) JRA May 19 $2,075k a 3yo f 12f Turf Closed on Apr 9.
Get Serious S Mth May 19 $75k g 3&up 5.5f Turf $0/May 11
Desert Stormer S (GIII) SA May 19 $100k g 3&up f/m 6f Dirt $100/May 9
Queenston S WO May 19 $125k g 3yo R 7f AW Closed on May 1.
May 20, 2019
JetSet H CTM May 20 $50k g 3&up f/m 6f Dirt $100/May 10
Journal H CTM May 20 $50k g 3&up 6f Dirt $100/May 10
Tom Ridge S PID May 20 $100k g 3yo 6f AW $0/May 8
C.O. “Ken” Kendrick Memorial S SuR May 20 $60k g 2yo S 4.5f Dirt Closed on May 6.
Eclipse S (GII) WO May 20 $175k g 4&up 8.5f AW Closed on May 1.
More Than Even S WRD May 20 $55k e 3&up f/m S 8.5f Dirt $0/May 9

May 22, 2019
Sagamore Sired S Ind May 22 $100k a 3yo S 6f Dirt $100/May 8
Swifty Sired Fillies S Ind May 22 $100k a 3yo f S 6f Dirt $100/May 8

May 23, 2019
Prairie Rose S PrM May 23 $50k g 3&up f/m 6f Dirt $0/May 11

May 24, 2019
Arizona Downs Inaugural S AZD May 24 $20k g 3&up 8f Dirt $0/May 10
Jack Bishop S PrM May 24 $50k g 3&up f/m 8.5f Dirt $0/May 11

May 25, 2019
Ingrid Knotts S ArP May 25 $30k e 3&up f/m S 6f Dirt Not Available
Paradise Creek S Bel May 25 $100k g 3yo 7f Turf $100/May 11
Keertana S CD May 25 #$100k a 3&up f/m 12f Turf $0/May 18
Winning Colors S (GIII) CD May 25 $100k g 3&up f/m 6f Dirt $100/May 11
Louisiana Legends Cheval EvD May 25 $75k g 3yo S 8f Dirt $0/May 10
Louisiana Legends Mademoiselle EvD May 25 $75k g 3&up f/m S 5.5f Dirt $0/May 10
Louisiana Legends Soiree EvD May 25 $75k g 3yo f S 8f Dirt $0/May 10
Louisiana Legends Sprint EvD May 25 $75k g 3&up S 5.5f Dirt $0/May 10
Louisiana Legends Starter EvD May 25 $50k g 3&up f/m S 7f Dirt $0/May 10
Louisiana Legends Starter EvD May 25 $50k g 3&up S 8.5f Dirt $0/May 10
Louisiana Legends Turf EvD May 25 $75k g 3&up S 8.5f Turf $0/May 10
Louisiana Legends Turf Distaff EvD May 25 $75k g 3&up f/m S 8f Turf $0/May 10
Roman Zipper S HsP May 25 $20k a 3&up S 8f Dirt $0/May 17
Vancouver Sun HsT May 25 $50k g 3&up f/m 6.5f Dirt $100/May 18
Boiling Springs S Mth May 25 $75k g 3yo f 8.5f Turf $0/May 18
John J. Reilly H Mth May 25 $75k g 3&up S 6f Dirt $0/May 18
Monmouth S (GIIT) Mth May 25 $200k g 3&up 9f Turf $200/May 11
Salvator Mile S (GIII) Mth May 25 $150k g 3&up 8f Dirt $150/May 11
Ed Skinner Memorial PrM May 25 $65k g 3&up 6f Dirt $0/May 15
Charles Whittingham S (GIIT) SA May 25 $200k g 3&up 10f Turf $100/May 16
Daytona S (GIIIT) SA May 25 $100k g 4&up abt 6.5f Turf $100/May 16
Triple Bend S (GII) SA May 25 $200k g 4&up 7f Dirt $100/May 16
SunRay Park & Casino H SuR May 25 $50k g 3&up 8f Dirt $200/May 11
Greenwood S WO May 25 $125k g 3&up R 6f AW $125/May 8
Marine S (GIII) WO May 25 $125k g 3yo 8.5f AW $125/May 8

May 26, 2019
Inaugural S ArP May 26 $20k e 3yo 6f Dirt $50/May 19
Green Carpet S BTP May 26 $75k g 3yo S 8.5f Turf $50/May 16
George Royal S HsT May 26 $50k g 3&up 6.5f Dirt $100/May 18
Meguro Kinen (JPN-IIT) JRA May 26 $1,071k a 4&up 12.5f Turf Closed on Apr 9.
Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (JPN-IT) JRA May 26 $3,757k a 3yo 12f Turf Closed on Apr 9.
Miss Liberty S Mth May 26 $75k g 3&up f/m 8.5f Turf $0/May 18
Monrovia S (GIIT) SA May 26 $200k g 3&up f/m abt 6.5f Turf $100/May 16
Summertime Oaks (GII) SA May 26 $200k g 3yo f 8.5f Dirt $100/May 16
Dine S SuR May 26 $60k g 3yo S 6.5f Dirt $200/May 12
Nassau S (GIIT) WO May 26 $175k g 3&up f/m 8f Turf $175/May 8

May 27, 2019
Bouwerie S Bel May 27 $125k g 3yo f S 7f Dirt $125/May 11
Commentator S Bel May 27 $200k g 3&up S 8f Dirt $200/May 11
Critical Eye Bel May 27 $200k g 3&up f/m S 8f Dirt $200/May 11
Kingston S Bel May 27 $125k g 3&up S 8f Turf $125/May 11
Mike Lee S Bel May 27 $125k g 3yo S 7f Dirt $125/May 11
Mount Vernon S Bel May 27 $125k g 3&up f/m S 8f Turf $125/May 11
Honor the Hero S Cby May 27 $50k g 3&up 5f Turf $0/May 17
Northbound Pride Oaks Cby May 27 $50k g 3yo f 8f Turf $0/May 17
Hastings S EmD May 27 $50k g 3&up f/m 6f Dirt $100/May 18
All American S (GIII) GG May 27 $100k g 3&up 8f AW $50/May 17
Lone Star Park Turf S LS May 27 $100k g 3&up f/m 8f Turf $0/May 18
Hystericalady S Mth May 27 $75k g 3yo f 6f Dirt $0/May 18
Jim Rasmussen PrM May 27 $65k g 3&up 8.5f Dirt $0/May 15
Gamely S (GIT) SA May 27 $500k g 3&up f/m 9f Turf $100/May 16
Shoemaker Mile (GIT) BC SA May 27 $500k g 3&up 8f Turf $100/May 16
The Gold Cup at Santa Anita (GI) SA May 27 $500k g 3&up 10f Dirt $100/May 16

May 31, 2019
Hey Hey Renee S AsD May 31 $18k a 3yo f 5.5f Dirt $0/May 21
Nebraska Princess S HsP May 31 $20k a 3yo f S 8f Dirt $0/May 24
Bob Bryant S PrM May 31 $60k g 3yo f S 6f Dirt Closed on Jan 1.

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Saturday, May 4. Churchill Downs.
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So it’s getting late on Saturday afternoon, and despite all the excess partying going on wherever you are, you’re been playing it cool about Derby talk, telling people you want to wait to see what the odds are. But the bottom line is, you don’t know who the hell you want to be on and basically have no clue what to talk about.
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Not sure how to get in on the action? Join TVG
Free and get $25 or more FREE to gamble with!
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And that’s why we invented: Derby for Dummies! That’s right, after opening this page on your smartphone, you can not only sound like you know what you’re talking about, but you know what to bet on and have the last laugh as you cash in your winning Derby tickets and your friends look at you in awe.
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There’s even a handy little spreadsheet here that you can print out and carry with you. It has A’s and B’s or no grade assigned to each Derby horse, with corresponding scores and tallied up. Kind of like in the Kentucky Derby Grid, except for dummies.
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Last year’s inaugural edition of Derby for Dummies came to this conclusion:
A-LIST: AUDIBLE, GOOD MAGIC, JUSTIFY, MAGNUM MOON, VINO ROSSO
ACTUAL KENTUCKY DERBY RESULTS:
1. JUSTIFY
2. GOOD MAGIC
3. AUDIBLE
4. INSTILLED REGARD
5. MY BOY JACK
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So you might want to pay attention to the A-list! Note: to get an A as a trainer or jockey, they had to have actually won the Derby before. Tough criteria I know, but that’s why we have a B rating for those who should win it one of these days.
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For this year, we’re scoring the A list as the 5 horses with 24 or more points, in order. The B list is the next 5 in order of points, except that 5 and 6 are tied with 18.
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A list: Game Winner, Improbable | Vekoma, Maximum Security, Roadster tied for 3rd
B list: Tacitus, Cutting Humor, Code of Honor, Spinoff, Tax, Bodexpress
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So the best strategy is to box and key the A list horses in all your exotics, and sprinkle the B list actors around in the trifecta and superfecta. Having any not in the A list in the exacta is not impossible but somewhat unlikely considering their qualifications.
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So print out or screen shot the Dummy sheet with assigned grades, bring it with you to the betting window, and watch your friends look at you in amazement when you start cashing in ticket after ticket after all the damage is done!
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How do you bet? Well you can bet online with TV as covered here:
Not sure how to get in on the action? Join TVG Free and get $25 or more FREE to gamble with!
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If betting in person somewhere, tell them you want to box a $1 and exacta and trifecta with the A-list, and fork over $50. Or you can wheel B listers at the bottom if you know how to do that. There are plenty of articles on how to wager elsewhere. This is to tell you who to bet on.
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You’re welcome.
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Full Kentucky Derby Grid still available here if you want to make it more complicated again.

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Friday, May 1, 2019. Churchill Downs.
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You’ve probably heard the popular horse racing phrase before, “pace makes the race.” This is very true in horse racing, but if only if it were as easy as it sounds. The truth is that pace can be very difficult and sometimes impossible to predict.
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If the pace in each race went out exactly as it looks on paper, then I would earn about a million dollars every weekend, but I fall short of that every week somehow. Regardless, you have to go with the information you have and make the best possible educated estimate of the pace scenario.
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If you need a crash course in Quirin points and remedial pace training, you can always reference this article which is the #1 most referenced page on the internet concerning the issue, and it’s free of course, like a lot of the other shit we give you that most of you don’t appreciate.
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In this year’s Kentucky Derby, as in any other 19 horse race, we need to examine the pace and see what the most probable possibilities are. Always start with the front runners, because they dictate the pace, a concept which you should understand no matter how ignorant you are on the issue.
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The scratch of Omaha Beach has a huge impact, because he was one of the two true frontrunners in the field, and now there is only one. Maximum Security may have an official rating of EP7, but the truth is, he was half a length away from being an EP8, due to going 5 wide in a sloppy sprint race early. The other 3 races he led at 1st call.
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So Max should be dictating the pace up front, but there will be a pack of others who will be giving chase early. Bodexpress will likely chase him like he did in the Florida Derby, as will Spinoff. Long Range Toddy, Roadster, Improbable, Gray Magician, and Tax are also seldom more than 2 lengths back of the leader at 1st call. The other EP and P types have mostly seldom been more than 4 lengths back.
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But on paper the pace just doesn’t look that fast even for a 20 horse race. There are only 4 other horses that ever led a single race at 1st call, and they only did it once. One of them was Code of Honor who normally runs from behind so that was likely experimental only.
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It looks like there will be some normal pressure behind Max but he might get it his own way. Typically in the Derby the jockeys practice restraint because they have to sprint for 10f which is longer than they’ve raced before. It would be a surprise to not see 3 of the top 4 filled with early runners this year.
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Max Sec had only 1 race at a mile or longer, the Florida Derby, and fortunately for him, he had it is own way from start to finish and dusted the field. He’ll have a little more pressure here but not enough to completely compromise him unless others strategize to deliberately challenge him on the pace, which could also happen.
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This bodes well for all of those that we mentioned giving chase before, the early runners that like to run from just off the pace. And of course, it does not bode well for the late running closers who will likely be too far behind the pace to gobble up tiring runners of which there won’t be many.
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So based on an objective pace analysis, knowing only what we can know from observation so far, we would predict something like the following:
Maximum Security
Roadster
Improbable
Game Winner
Spinoff
Bodexpress
Tax
Vekoma

But also required in the pace analysis, is a look at how the track is playing today. So far, through 6 races, it has appeared to favor late runners, as it normally does when the track is this dry and front runners tire more easily. That’s one reason we wait until Saturday for the official pace analysis.
Race1: Grid’s top LP horse won at 10-1.
Race2: 13-1 winner made no sense on paper. 2nd 3rd and 4th were top 3 LP horses in Grid.
Race3: Grid’s top EP won at 11-1 in a race nearly devoid of speed
Race4: 5-1 winner 2nd in LP.
Race5 on turf, not relevant to this analysis. Winner 3rd in LP.
Race6: 2nd in EP won at 12-1, in a race with only 1 early runner, who finished 3rd.
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Experience also tells us that most likely 1 of the top closers will find his way into the superfecta, because it happens almost every year, and that’s what great closers too. The best late running closer according to the Grid is Country House, also the only S0 which means he is the latest runner.
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Code of Honor and Win Win Win are the only other two S types and both have good LP numbers according to the Grid. Country House and Win Win Win are two of only 3 left in the field that have never been passed in a race. The other is Max Sec. So it bodes well that one of those 2 will hit the board. Haikal also was never passed but scratched late Friday.
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So taking into account today’s racing surface and adding the closers, we would modify the list to look something like this:
Game Winner
Improbable
Roadster
Country House
Maximum Security
Tax
Tacitus
Win Win Win
Code of Honor
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Either way, we’re still looking at 2 or 3 Baffert horses in the superfecta, along with either Max Sec or Country House or even Win Win Win. Of course, the racing gods have to smile upon any of these today for them to finish in the money, and anything can happen in a 19 horse race. That’s why it’s called a Derby.
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Now you may be an idiot that is asking why we list like 8 horses for a 4 horse superfecta. If you plan on using only 4 horses for your superfecta, I hope you have extra good luck with that. You have about as much chance at that as me winning a million dollars every weekend.

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Thursday, May 2, Churchill Downs. As part of our all-inclusive Kentucky Derby angles series leading up to the run for the roses, today we take a look at the Derby jockeys and trainers, and their relevance. This is by far the easiest of all the analytics, but also one of the most relevant.
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First take a look at this snapshot of modern history Baffert Era Kentucky Derby winners.
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Emboldened are those who were repeat Derby winners, either for the 2nd, 3rd, or Nth time. Note they are not in bold the first time they won the Derby, only subsequent times in which they actually repeated. It doesn’t take long to see that this data set is riddled with jockeys and trainers who are repeat winners.
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We begin the data set with 1997 because it is known as the Baffert Era, marking Bob Baffert’s first of 5 Kentucky Derby champions. You will also notice that the past 4 Kentucky Derby editions have been won by a repeat jockey AND a repeat trainer.
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Now one of these trends is likely to continue, and the other is actually not, and I’ll tell you why. First, we’re still very much in the Baffert era, as marked by his 2 Triple Crown champions in 4 years. This year, he has (after the scratch of Omaha Beach) the top 3 ranked horses in our Derby Dozen.
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Further, most of the trainers you see on that list are still very active, and some of them have contestants in this year’s Derby. The graphic below shows you this year’s Kentucky Derby competitors along with their trainer and rider, and some other info you can ignore for now if you desire.
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You can see the Baffert trio which will be the top 3 betting choices. Also, Todd, Kirian, Shoog, and Servis are looking to become repeat champions. I would definitely shorten my list of contenders to this list, and personally I’m further shortening it to Baffert for additional reasons.
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Of the other trainers looking to crack the nut for their first title, there are several that always have a good chance. It’s not the first rodeo by any stretch for trainers like Trombetta, Mott, and Asmussen, nor will it be the last. Casse and Calhoun could win it one of these years too, or even one of the others.
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The jockey column tells an entirely different story. Most of the jocks you saw on the prior graphic are retired, from riding anyway. But there are only 2 on the list that even have the possibility of a repeat win here. Given one of them is on a Baffert favorite, so Joel has got a great chance for his 2nd win. But the odds are statistically 9 of 10 it will be a first time winning jockey.
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So the conclusion here is that it will be yet another repeat trainer winning the Derby, and probably a jockey that hasn’t won it before. Although, if you follow our Derby Dozen, Game Winner has been ranked #1 all year, so we’re hoping Rosario will win another one.
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This again strengthens the position of our Derby Dozen rankings, which isn’t just guesswork, but an expert ranking based on all these factors we’re presenting you leading up to the Kentucky Derby.
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So our top picks according to this study would be as follows:
Game Winner
Roadster
Improbable
Maximum Security
(small gap then)
Code of Honor
Cutting Humor
Haikal
Spinoff

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How do you get the Kentucky Derby Grid? Click here.
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Wednesday, May 1, Churchill Downs. Today we take our annual look at perhaps the most critical set of historical factors for the Kentucky Derby: The final prep race and specifically the Big 5 final preps. This answers a set of criteria in the Grid concerning performance in a major prep race.
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It can best be seen by looking at a very busy chart of such prep races that goes back to 1997 which is the beginning of the Baffert Era (a term coined by this site, but feel free to use it). 1997 is the year that Bob Baffert won his first of now 5 Kentucky Derby titles, among many other Triple Crown races, including 2 Triple Crown champions in the past 4 years.
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The horses in the darker blue are those who actually own the Kentucky Derby. Seems like one of them every year from the Big 5 preps right? Just about. The Big 5 by the way are Florida, Wood, Arkansas, Blue Grass, and Wood. The column on the right tells it all when summed up.
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Statistically speaking, what does this tell us by the numbers?
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For the 22 Kentucky Derby winners:
100% were top 4 in their final prep
91% were 1st or 2nd in their final prep
82% were in a Big 5 final prep
64% won their final prep
100% of the last 8 won their final prep.
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For the 44 winners and runners up combined:
100% of top 2 Kentucky Derby horses were top 4 in their final prep
82% were in a Big 5 final prep
80% were top 2 in their final prep
59% won their final prep
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The Louisiana Derby is included in the chart because it’s still trying to make a case for the Big 6, but it’s still of questionable relevance for Derby champions. Only 2 Louisiana champions went on to win the Roses, Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996, the year before the Baffert Era. That could change, but I don’t think it will be this year.
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The handicapping ability of this information is obvious. First you’ve narrowed potential winners down to the block of 10 at the top, cutting the Kentucky Derby field in half. Bodexpress made the Derby as an alternate, so he is also considered.
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If you’ve been following our Derby Dozen, you’d have seen that only 5 of those have ever been in our top 5, so we’re narrowing it down even further to those 5. The top 2 in the Arkansas and Santa Anita Derby, plus the Florida Derby winner. Those are the current top 5 and most likely champions.
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That conclusion is based mostly on watching the races this year and comparing the competition, but it’s backed by our historical study here. Note that in the past 10 years, those are clearly the 3 races most relevant in producing Kentucky Derby winners and runners-up. Obviously oddsmaker Mike Battaglia agrees.
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The other reason we’re taking the top 2 in certain races is because they were separated by a length or less. In those preps where the winner was multiple lengths in front at the wire, we’ll only use that winner as a potential winner.
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So based on this analysis, and after the scratch of Omaha Beach, our potential winners list would be:
Game Winner
Roadster
Improbable
Maximum Security

Alternates likely to finish in the money should the mighty falter:
Bodexpress
Vekoma
Tacitus
By My Standards
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Others to wheel at bottom of exotics.
Cutting Humor (Sunland Derby)
Tax
Win Win Win
Spinoff
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So you might as well just box the top 4 in an exacta right now and get it out of the way, then look for some good long shots in the 3rd or 4th spots. The top 2 finishers might not have good odds but nor have they in the past few years and in some cases no odds until the superfecta sleeper.
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How do you get the full Kentucky Derby Grid? Check here.

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Tuesday April 30, 2019. Churchill Downs. The final Derby Dozen is here, taking into account those who actually made the field this morning during the Kentucky Derby post draw. Surprisingly there have been no withdrawn entries out of the top 20 and there is only 1 alternate who needs a scratch by 9am Friday.
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This will be the final Derby Dozen of the season. Making one after the Derby would be rather vain. After that, we’ll have the Preakness Pack and Belmont Bunch or something to that effect. But for now let’s focus on the Kentucky Derby and the top 12 horses going in, now that all the posts have been picked and morning lines assigned. It’s looking like an all-Baffert trifecta is a definite possibility this year, another feat to add to his incredible list of achievements.
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1. Game Winner (Candy Ride, RAN). Bob Baffert’s 2yo champ managed to hold on to his top slot in the Dozen, despite losing both his races this year. What?! Well, if you watched the races, you’d see the losses were both narrow and could have gone either way. In the Rebel 2 Stakes, he almost ran down Omaha Beach, gaining with every stride but the wire came too fast. In the Santa Anita Derby, he managed to somehow go 4 wide around both turns in a race with only 6 contenders, and took the lead in stretch before getting caught by stablemate Roadster who had a nice ground saving trip towards the rear. Roadster also needed 1st or 2nd. Game Winner, who ran the better race, did not need any points.
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2. Omaha Beach (War Front, ND). Richard Mandella’s top mount got promoted to second after beating one each of Baffert’s top horses in the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes. Last out he took the lead by the first half a mile and Improbable gave chase but couldn’t get closer than a length. With any pressure up front it’s possible he could be caught with another furlong to go at Churchill this Saturday. Maximum Security may be the only one to go with him, but if they throw down early it could be ugly for both.
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3. Roadster (Quality Road, RAN). Baffert’s now 2nd best 3yo (or 1st best according to some) launched into the top 5 after winning the Santa Anita Derby. It was only his 2nd stakes race (compared to 5 from Game Winner, including 3 G1 wins, but he did everything asked in his 4th career race, had a great trip, and came out on top. I’d like to see a more solid body of work, but his previous stakes race was only a 2 length loss to Game Winner in the G1 Del Mar Futurity last year, so it’s not like the SA win was a fluke. Either way he belongs in this top 5 conversation here and will likely hit the board.
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4. Improbable (City Zip, RAN). Bob Baffert’s now 3rd best 3yo is still ranked very highly here. He had 2 great runs this year, and like Game Winner came up 2nd both times. Last out in the Arkansas he chased Omaha Beach around the track and wound up a length short. Before that in Rebel 1 it looked like he’d win but moved to soon and got caught with a career run by Long Range Toddy. It’s not like he gave up; he was still fighting but lost by a length. These top 4 all seem somewhat interchangeable and it will depend on how the pace plays out in Kentucky for the most part. It really could be an all-Baffert trifecta this year.
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5. Maximum Security (New Year’s Day, RAN). Jason Servis decided an 18 length win in a 7f OC was good enough for his undefeated colt to try his hand in the Florida Derby G1 on March 30, his 1st stakes race and 4th career start. He set a comfortable lead early, making it impossible for anyone else in the field to catch him as he continued to drive away from the field. Although a frontrunner, he gets great LP marks due to his habit of running away from the competition. He’s 1 of 4 in the Kentucky Derby who have not been passed by anyone in a race (or beaten) and the only one with two triple digit Beyers and Brisnet figures. A speed duel with Omaha Beach could compromise both of them, especially if others pile on.
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6. Tacitus (Tapit, API). Bill Mott’s now top Derby horse, in terms of points anyway, comes off two G2 wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial, putting him in the points lead with 50 and 100 each. He’s put up some solid performance figures, but those 2 races have notoriously weak fields in recent years, including this year. He beat Tax and Haikal in the Wood, but those two aren’t exactly cream of the crop either. However, he’s done everything asked and he should be able to finish in the money if he keeps up the great efforts.
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7. Country House (Lookin at Lucky, RAN). Bill Mott’s 2nd contestant is a very solid late running closer. His body of work finishing 3rd, 4th, and 2nd in his 3 graded Derby preps was enough to get him into the field. Because of his great sustained running ability, he can rarely be counted out of any classic distance race. He has the 2nd best LP in the field behind Maximum Security, and is 1 of the 4 who has never been passed in his 6 races. If the front runners create some heat up front he’ll be in really good shape at the end.
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8. By My Standards (Goldencents, SCAT). Bret Calhoun got his first official Derby contender with this surprise 22-1 winner of the Louisiana Derby G2. It looked like a huge step up in class from his prior race, his 1st win in 4 tries to break his maiden. The strength of the La Derby field is still suspect, but he did earn solid performance figures for that race, beating 3 others in the Kentucky Derby field, and another that was an alternate until the post draw.
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9. Vekoma (Candy Ride, RAN). George Weaver makes a rare run for the roses with this lightly raced colt who won the Blue Grass G2 in his 4th career start, adding to his Nashua G3 title. Like the Wood, that field however seemed somewhat weak. Only 1 other will run for the roses from the BG, and that being based almost entirely on his 2nd place finish. Both he and Win Win Win needed 1st or 2nd to get in, but get in they did, and anything can happen now. Tactical speed will help him avoid a pace duel and should put him in good position no matter what they do up front.
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10. Tax (Arch, TTO). Danny Gargan gets his first run for the roses with this gelding. He’s done very well, finishing 2nd, 1st, and 3rd in his 3 graded prep races in NY, all at 9f which is the best distance to prep at since no 10f preps are offered in this hemisphere. He’s currently the only gelding in the field which sucks for him, but geldings have won the Kentucky Derby before. The NY fields were suspect as mentioned, and Tacitus came out on top in the Wood. Brisnet players will be cheering for his 4th straight triple digit Brisnet speed figure, as he’s 1 of only 2 in the field with more than 1 such rating.
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11. Win Win Win (Hat Trick, TTO). This isn’t Michael Trombetta’s first rodeo by any means, and he’s got a legitimate shot at the purse money with this solid late runner. He got an honest pace in the Blue Grass G2 and went from 13th to 2nd to get his Derby ticket. He’s hoping for the speed duel up front to sweep by the tiring field as he usually does. He’s 1 of the 4 in the field to have not been passed in any of his 5 career races
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12. Haikal (Daaher, ND). Kirian McLaughlin is always dangerous in the big races, and this solid closer always gives him a chance. He’s 3rd in the Grid for Stamina and LP, and not far off the top power rating. Like other trainers we’ve mentioned, KMac will be hoping for that speed duel up front so Haikal can put up the big sweeping late run and gobble up tiring runners. His worst career finish is 3rd in the Wood which was only his 2nd loss. The last of 4 in this field to have not been passed in his 5 career races.
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Other dangerous horses that could strike at the money if things go right for them and wrong for others:
Code of Honor, Long Range Toddy, Cutting Humor
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Get the full Kentucky Derby Grid here before they sell out!
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Tuesday, April 30. Churchill Downs had its first big media event of the week, hosting the Kentucky Derby Post Draw in which the program numbers for the field were drawn. Afterwards, Mike Battaglia assigned morning line odds to each entry.
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So here’s what they came up with, and we’ve included the running style, jockey, trainer, and sire for your information.
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Prg	Horse	ML	Trainer	ST	Sire	Jockey
1	War Of Will	20	Casse Mark	EP5	War Front	Gaffalione Tyler
2	Tax	20	Gargan Danny	EP6	Arch	Alvarado Junior
3	By My Standards	20	Calhoun William Bret	P3	Goldencents	Saez Gabriel
4	Gray Magician	50	Miller Peter	EP6	Graydar	Van Dyke Drayden
5	Improbable	6	Baffert Bob	P5	City Zip	Ortiz Irad Jr
6	Vekoma	20	Weaver George	EP5	Candy Ride	Castellano J J
7	Maximum Security	10	Servis Jason	EP7	New Year’s Day	Saez Luis
8	Tacitus	10	Mott William I	P2	Tapit	Ortiz Jose L
9	Plus Que Parfait	30	Walsh Brendan P	EP2	Point Of Entry	Santana Ricardo Jr
10	Cutting Humor	30	Pletcher Todd A	P4	First Samurai	Lanerie Corey
11	Haikal	30	Mclaughlin Kiaran P	S2	Daaher	Maragh Rajiv
12	Omaha Beach	4	Mandella Richard E	E8	War Front	Smith Mike
13	Code Of Honor	15	Mcgaughey Claude Iii	S2	Noble Mission	Velazquez J R
14	Win Win Win	15	Trombetta Michael J	S3	Hat Trick	Pimentel Julien
15	Master Fencer	50	Tsunoda K	NA0	Just A Way	Leparoux Julien R
16	Game Winner	5	Baffert Bob	EP2	Candy Ride	Rosario Joel
17	Roadster	6	Baffert Bob	EP6	Quality Road	Geroux Florent
18	Long Range Toddy	30	Asmussen Steven M	EP5	Take Charge Indy	Court Jon
19	Spinoff	30	Pletcher Todd A	EP7	Hard Spun	Franco Manuel
20	Country House	30	Mott William I	S0	Lookin At Lucky	Prat Flavien
AE	Bodexpress	30	Delgado Gustavo	EP6	Bodemeister	Landeros Chris

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Here’s a partial snapshot of the short form Kentucky Derby Grid with the prior PF’s for all the horses.
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Much more is included in the full Kentucky Derby Grid, including over 80 different factors and 3 different sets of speed figures.
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Saturday, April 27. OK it’s a weekend before the Kentucky Derby but that doesn’t mean nothing is going on. Golden Gate has an exciting card with the grade 3 San Fran Mile and several other stakes races including the California Derby and Oaks.
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Now we’re not going to pretend that any of these are Kentucky Derby or Oaks contenders, because they’re definitely not, but some of them could appear at Pimlico in 3 weeks on Preakness weekend.
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In the Cal Derby, 1 horse that may schedule the Preakness if he runs well is Baffert’s Kingly, who finished 2nd to possible Kentucky Derby entrant (23rd in points) Anothertwistafate in the El Camino Derby here in February.
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Another twist of fate could be a win by San Vicente G2 winner Sparky Ville, who has been very good except for his only route race which was an 8.5f loss which was also his only turf start. This will be his first polytrack start but he’s the slight favorite.
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Also contending will be Erlich, Visitant, More Ice, and The Creep, who has the best name of any 3yo horse.

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Grab the Golden Gate Grid here free to make some great picks today!