Weekend Winners Club

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Friday, May 6, 2016
Churchill Downs
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This page will continue to be updated with graphics and predicitons for the Kentucky Derby, so check back periodically. In the meantime, enjoy the free condensed Grid and information.
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The early top 5 picks will be Exaggerator, Gun Runner, Nyquist, Mor Spirit, and Trojan Nation.
Analysis and graphics to be updated Friday evening.
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The first thing I like to do is look at the probable pace scenario. We already have all the numbers because we have the Grid, and performance figures, which you can see below.
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Now all we need to do is analyze the numbers. We can see who the best horses are in general, early, and later. But there isn’t much speed in this year’s Derby.
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Kentucky Derby pace probable pace scenario and analysis.
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Next, we can look at some of the historical factors. Looking at how horses finished in their final preps and particularly major preps, we can narrow down the field of contenders.
Horses that won or placed in major preps 1997-2016
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Come back after that lesson and we’ll move on to the next.
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This is how I would predict the race playing out with a fast but not torrid pace. It all depends on how fast Danzing Candy wants to go, and that’s usually quite fast. Outwork will go with him but won’t set blistering fractions on his own.
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Kentucky Derby horse positions at each quarter mile.
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Download Final 2016 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with full field, odds, posts, and over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!

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Full Kentucky Derby Grid for 2016, including over 70 factors with performance and pedigree information, can be obtained here.
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Here are the final posts and morning line odds for the Kentucky Derby, with past 4 performance figures included.
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Prg	Horse	ML	ST	PF1	PF2	PF3	PF4	HI	Avg	Jockey
1	Trojan Nation	50-1	S3	90	82	82	79	90	86	GRYDER AARON
2	Suddenbreakingnews	20-1	S0	93	87	88	81	93	91	QUINONEZ L
3	Creator	10-1	S0	94	89	87	73	94	92	SANTANA RJ
4	Mo Tom	20-1	S0	92	89	88	88	92	91	LANERIE COREY
5	Gun Runner	10-1	P4	98	91	86	80	98	94	GEROUX F
6	My Man Sam	20-1	S0	86	94	91	66	94	93	ORTIZ IRAD
7	Oscar Nominated	50-1	P5	86	82	69	85	86	84	LEPAROUX J
8	Lani	30-1	S0					0	0	TAKE Y
9	Destin	15-1	EP4	91	94	83	76	94	93	CASTELLANO J
10	Whitmore	20-1	S0	91	91	86	86	91	91	ESPINOZA VIC
11	Exaggerator	8-1	P3	96	95	95	97	97	95	DESORMEUX K
12	Tom’s Ready	30-1	S1	93	76	86	83	93	89	HERNANDEZ B
13	Nyquist	3-1	EP5	91	97	91	90	97	94	GUTIERREZ M
14	Mohaymen	10-1	EP6	82	96	91	96	96	94	ALVARADO J
15	Outwork	15-1	E8	90	90	84	77	90	90	VELAZQUEZ JR
16	Shagaf	20-1	EP4	86	88	85	93	93	87	ROSARIO J
17	Mor Spirit	12-1	P3	88	96	93	90	96	94	STEVENS GARY
18	Majesto	30-1	P3	87	91	76	73	91	89	JARAMILLO E
19	Brody’s Cause	12-1	S0	88	78	88	89	89	88	SAEZ LUIS
20	Danzing Candy	15-1	E8	82	98	92	95	98	95	SMITH MIKE
AE	Laoban		E6	83	86	81	80	86	85	LEZCANO JOSE
AE	Cherry Wine		S0	86	87	85	84	87	87	LANERIE COREY

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Download Final 2016 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with full field, odds, posts, and over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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