Weekend Winners Club

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Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Pimlico, Maryland
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Preakness early analysis, odds and picks.
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The Kentucky Derby is over, with 2yo champ Nyuist staying undefeated and proving that so far, he’s the best 3yo as well. Now the field for the 2016 Preakness Stakes is taking shape, with initially about a dozen horses having connections brave enough to face the juggernaut.

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According to the Maryland Jockey club, expected contenders are as follows:
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Probables:	Odds	Last	Race
Nyquist	3-5	1st	Kentucky Derby
Exaggerator	9-2	2nd	Kentucky Derby
Lani	33-1	9th	Kentucky Derby
Cherry Wine	22-1	3rd	Blue Grass Stakes
Collected	15-1	1st	Lexington Stakes
Awesome Speed	25-1	1st	Federico Tesio (by DQ)
Stradivari	14-1	1st	Allowance race 62k
Uncle Lino	25-1	1st	California Chrome
Laoban	35-1	4th	Blue Grass Stakes
Fellowship	30-1	4th	Pat Day Mile
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Considering
Brody’s Cause	18-1	7th	Kentucky Derby
Dazzling Gem	22-1	4th	Arkansas Derby
Gun Runner	10-1	3rd	Kentucky Derby
Creator	18-1	13th	Kentucky Derby
Suddenbreakingnews	12-1	5th	Kentucky Derby

Odds from Wynn Sports Book ~ May 11
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The Pimlico gate only holds 14 and there is no auxiliary gate as there is at Churchill Downs, and the track is smaller and more narrow. So there looks to be plenty of room for those who are up for the challenge.
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One of the easiest ways to look at the Preakness is to look at its history. Start with the fact that 10 out of the 19 past Kentucky Derby champs also won the Preakness Stakes. That’s over half of the Derby champs the past two decades.
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Narrow that list down to those Derby champs that were early runners or early pressers (with Quirin speed points of 5 or higher) and it’s almost all of them. In fact, the only exceptions were Super Saver, who ran horribly, and Barbaro, who broke down, RIP.
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Those Derby champs that were habitual closers from the back of the pack all failed to win the Preakness. This list includes Orb, Animal Kingdom, Mine that Bird, Street Sense, Giacomo, and even the great Fusaichi Pegasus, and Monarchos, who ran the 2nd fastest Kentucky Derby, and possibly only the 2nd sub 22 second quarter mile in Derby history.
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If you count Barbaro as a non-start in the Preakness, which is debatable since he shouldn’t have started after breaking thru the gate, Super Saver and Monarchos were the only two Derby champs in 19 years that didn’t finish in the top 4 at Preakness.
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In EVERY case where the Derby champ did NOT win during this time frame, it was won by an early runner or presser who normally ran with the front pack. In most cases (6) it was a horse from the Kentucky Derby, in which case it was also a top 6 Derby horse every time.
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The other 3 times it was speed from elsewhere, such as the great Rachel Alexandra from the Kentucky Oaks. Bernardini won when Barabaro broke down, and Red Bullet was able to stay ahead of FuPeg in 2000.
Browse this chart to see where the top 4 Kentucky Derby finishers ended up in the Preakness:
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You can see by the summations how well the Derby champ has fared. Interestingly, the Derby runner up (usually a deeper closer btw) has never won the Preakness, but did finish in the money 7 of 10 times. The 3rd place Derby horse has won, and was in the super 8 of 12 times.
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In all, the top 4 Derby horses have an excellent record in this race, winning 13 of the past 19, and finishing with 33 out of 44 runners in the top 4. Their collective record is 44-13-8-7-5. Including a horse that finished 5th in the Derby and 2 that finished 6th, they have 15 Preakness wins.
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Start by looking at how the Preakness top finishers fared previously in the Kentucky Derby, similar to the above chart, in reverse.
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The Preakness win position has been dominated by horses that finished top 6 in the Derby, specifically Derby winners. The runner up position is normally a top 7 Derby runner. Other positions have a decreasing Derby significance, but the Derby runners tend to do well when they run here.
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With about 40% of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place runners coming from outside the Kentucky Derby field, we have to consider other sources to find part of our superfecta. For example, if Exaggerator or Gun Runner were the only other Derby horse to run here, we’d have at least 2 positions to fill.
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We’ve already identified Nyquist as the probable Preakness champion. Gun Runner and Exaggerator would obviously be key horses if they do indeed race here. Who else should we look at?
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You know what I’m going to say already: the Grid will be the easiest way to narrow down the remaining contenders for your exotics, including the trifecta, superfecta, and super high five.
Let’s look at how the Grid helped up the past 5, or 6 years for that matter.

2010: The Grid indicated 12 of 13 winners on 2010 Preakness day. Look at the 2010 Pimlico/ Preakness Grid. It’s true that favored Derby champ Super Saver had a horrible race, but 2nd choice Lookin at Lucky was kind of obvious and had the top LP. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th horses had top 5 EP ratings.
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2011: The Grid didn’t get as many winners, but did indicate Preakness winner Shackleford as the Top Power and Speed horse, and he won at 13-1. That led to an easy $1400 trifecta. Check out the Preakness 2011 Grid Right Here.
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2012: Top 3 Derby chalk; nothing we can do about that, but history was overdue in this one.
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2013: Oxbow was the Grid’s top EP and 1 point off the top speed rating, won at 15-1.
Itsmyluckyday was tied for top EP and had the top speed rating, finished 2nd at 8-1.
Mylute was 3rd in power and had the top LP rating (yes better than Orb) finished 3rd at 11-1.
The $2 Preakness 2013 trifecta paid $2060, which is a lot more than usual. The $1 super paid over $1800. We knew that there wasn’t much speed and the late running Derby champ Orb would likely lose, and he finished 4th. But with the readings of the Grid, we had a good shot at it.
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2014: California Chrome won as expected, and few Derby horses wanted to challenge him.
Ride on Curlin had the Grid’s 2nd best LP rating, top 4 in other categories, and got 2nd at 10-1
3rd place Social Inclusion was the top EP, 1st in speed, and 2nd in power, got 3rd.
Completing the super was General A Rod at 20-1, top 3 in several categories.
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2015: American Pharoah won over some other assorted horses that had no chance against him.
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As you can see, the Grid will get you these surprise winners, runners up, and other in-the-money horses, and even if the favored Derby champion wins, as it did 10 out of the past 20 years, you can still make money, even when everyone knows the champion.
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Who didn’t know Big Brown would win at 2-5? I did, and used him to anchor an easy pick 6 bet that won $4 grand on a $72 bet. That computes to odds of 55-1, which you can’t get with a win bet. The “hardest” part was a 20-1 turf winner that the Grid gave me, that I had a nice win bet on as well just in case.
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My recommendation is to get the Grid for the Preakness, not just to fill out your Preakness exotics, but to get some other winners and exotics on the card to set yourself up for a nice day at Pimlico.
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