Weekend Winners Club

You know the old sayings, “1st impressions are everything” and “you never get a 2nd chance to make a 1st impression,” etc.

Well I had a 1st impression of one of the Kentucky Derby contenders named Animal Kingdom. In fact, physically he was the only Derby contender that I was impressed with.

The only other horse I was impressed with at all was The Factor with his speed, who was not part of the field. The rest of them just seemed like “best of the rest” material.

Anyway, I searched my email for Animal Kingdom and found some messages I sent to a fellow handicapper dated April 25, just 2 weeks before the big race.

1st message:
Look at this … guy (Animal Kingdom), very muscular physique for a distance runner, kind of like (Point Given.)
http://tracksideview.org/iron-maidens/spiral-champ-animal-kingdom-should-have-no-problem-with-classic-distance/

2nd message:
I’m really interested in Leroidesanimaux (AK’s sire), that was a great classic horse and look at his (AK) dam’s AWD of 10. Should have great odds too, not sure if he wants dirt though. This race is up for grabs…

3rd message:
Looks like Animal Kingdom is about to miss on every 1 of my criteria…

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Ahh, the criteria, and the coveted Grid. They are usually quite accurate in pinpointing the chief contenders. Not so this year. The field was so weak, and Animal Kingdom strong enough, that the criteria didn’t mean diddly-pooh.

Although I am admittedly no expert in horse conformation or physical stature, I should have at least given some credit to my 1st impression of an impressive young colt, and my knowledge of his champion pedigree.

Only 4 lifetime races? no dirt races? So what? Right?

I wish it were always that easy, but this year when I specifically stated and knew that anything could happen, it would have been worthwhile to key that horse at the top of several wagers.

At last I had taken such a beating on the undercard, that I didn’t have room for many options come Derby time.

Perhaps there were some strategic errors, but the biggest mistake was not believing what I saw and therefore knew to be true.

It didn’t take me until April 25th to like him either. I liked enough after the Spiral victory to add him as 1 of 2 horses to my Road to the Roses stable, only to earn no points from him until the Derby.

(As it was, I forgot to set my lineup on Derby day, and would have finished in the top 30, instead finishing 135, which out of about 20,000 still isn’t that bad.)

Looking forward, this horse has every bit as good a chance of winning the Triple Crown as any other previous Derby champ, and more so than some.

His running style doesn’t lend as well to the Preakness, but if he can muscle his way to the lead on that stretch, he’ll have every right to win at Belmont.

That’s a big IF, but I would not be surprised to see it. No, I’m not claiming he’ll win the Triple Crown, but the Derby victory was no fluke.

It’s common for horses to make a jump up in speed their first time on dirt, and it’s possible he could have run the same race earlier in a dirt prep. But he had not run a dirt prep, which was part of the confusion.

The Preakness should be quite interesting this year, with a lot of horses entering and trying to take their shot at the “fluke” Derby champion.

They might actually beat him, but only if they plan on doing it by staying in front of him, because they won’t catch him from behind.

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