Loading ...Jun 01 2011
Met Mile Review
Tizway won the Met Mile going away by 5 lengths down the stretch before giving back about 2 of those as Raj Maragh realized they were well clear.
In terms of the Belmont Grid for Monday, which was free, Tizway was #1 ranked in Stamina, although not by a wide margin, 2nd in power, 2nd in speed, and 4th in LP. He was also the lukewarm favorite at 3-1 in a very competitive field. Open the Grid below to follow along.
Belmont Met Mile Grid Download
The big surprise was Rodman, the longest shot in the field, finishing 2nd after a great stretch run at 36-1. It was easy to overlook this horse, a habitual frontrunner in a field full of similar styled runners.
In one of those statistical anomalies however, Rodman did rank 3rd in LP in the Grid, so if you liked that angle as the longest shot in the field, you could have made a nice Exacta payout of $358 or place/show payouts of $28 and $18.
In addition, Rodman had the 5th best PF at this distance in the last 4 races. Note the 104 is the 5th largest bold figure. Now clearly, without a true late runner in the field, they changed strategies and let him gallop toward the rear. Credit Channing Hill for getting him to relax before a great stretch run.
Next in finishing were Caixa Eletronica and Aikenite, the Pletcher pair and obvious contenders in the Grid or or anyone else’s standards.
Haynesfield finished a disappointing 5th after running around in 5th for most of the race. Many, including me, figured Haynesfield would excel in his return to the site of some of his greatest wins.
Before the race, I had them ranked:
Haynesfield
Tizway
Soaring Empire
Aikenite
Caixa Eletronica
Rodman
Ibboyee
Tackleberry
Sure, this is the way many others must have seen it as well according to the odds, except obviously the public liked Tackleberry 4th best and didn’t like Rodman at all.
I didn’t think Tackleberry would survive the long stretch and indeed he didn’t. I also noticed the good LP about Rodman and figured with Channing up there was a good chance to finish in the money. How did I play it?
First I keyed Haynesfield and Tizway at the top of my tri and super, followed by the next 3 at 2 and 3 spots.
I used Rodman at 3 and 4 in the tri and super, but obviously should have considered using him at 2. Hindsight is often better than foresight. People who played it right got nice paydays:
$2 Trifecta paid $2400
$1 Super paid $7500
Now obviously I didn’t win anything on the race, but I did get a decent late Pick 4 payout, despite the favoritism in the Met Mile and Sands Point. The Grid’s #1 LP, Stamina, and Speed horse won race 8 at 8-1, returning to turf from dirt and shortening from route to sprint. No-brainer there.
In addition, a good price of 6-1 was had for the winner of Race 11 as King Rock was #3 in all 3 major categories, and had the highest dirt and turf performance figures of any. I’ll bet on those conditions any day of the week and twice on Monday. The $1 Pick 4 paid over $500.
So altogether it was a nice Memorial Day at Belmont, and most winners were very “formful” according to the Grid, even if they weren’t for the public.
Remember the Belmont Park Grids are free Friday-Sun through June 10 this month, so you can get many other great winners and long shots here for free.
