Weekend Winners Club

Happy Breeders’ Cup Weekend and Halloween!

Let’s start with Friday’s races at Keeneland, including the Breeders’ Cup undercard. There are plenty of value plays. Remember, I consider a value play anything with 5-1 or better odds that has a decent chance of winning. It can also happen that a strong contender at 3 or 4 to 1 can end up at 5-1 or more odds at post time, but we won’t have post time odds until post time, so don’t worry about the obvious contenders until that time.

Friday’s Lineup:
Keeneland: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Las Vegas) (gr. I), $1,000,000g, 3&up, 8f.
Keeneland: Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Longines) (gr. I), $2,000,000g, 3&up f/m, 9f.
Keeneland: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I), $1,000,000g, 2yo f, 8f.
Keeneland: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I), $1,000,000g, 2yo c/g, 8f.
Keeneland: Bryan Station S, $100,000g, 3yo, 9f.
Keeneland: Hagyard Fayette S (gr. II), $200,000g, 3&up, 9f.
Keeneland: Marathon S (gr. II), $200,000g, 3&up, 14f.

Follow along with Friday’s FREE BC GRID so you can see where we’re coming from.
Keeneland Friday Breeders Cup Grid

The following horses are considered to have strong value:
R1: It’s only 6f, but 6.Helooksthepart has top LP at 8-1 ML. Also the inside speed 1.Jasizzle is 8-1 and has a strong record at this surface and distance.
R2: Street Blush only needs to maintain his first start to beat this field, and probably won’t hold at 5-1.
R3: The favorites look strong yes, but the horse with the top PF average and top power and EP according to the grid, is EarlyEntry at 15-1. Returning to sprint he could be very dangerous.
R4: Once again, the favorites look strong, however the horses with the best dirt speed (switching to turf) are 15-1, 20-1 and 30-1. 15-1 Tale of Verve is co top LP and high dirt PF, and 30-1 Paid Admission is one of the top speed horses, including the 2nd best dirt PF.
R5: It’s not just about Hoppertunity, Protonico, and Commissioner. Eagle, Encryption, and Geothermal all ran well last out, and the race is at 9f so don’t count out VE Day with top LP at 8-1.
R6: I normally don’t get excited about the BC Juvy Turf, but there are some great long shots here. The two top speed horses are 30-1. Manhattan Dan switches back to turf, where he has the highest PF in the field, and Sheikh of Sheikhs tries turf for the first time. Top LP Camelot Kitten is 12-1. However, the two Euro-fav’s (no PF’s or ratings) could kill everyone’s buzz.
R7: Liam’s Map won’t need a map to find the wire in the BC Dirt Mile, but there’s a lot of speed in this race, and Red Vine 6-1 and Lea 8-1 will be happy to pick of the pieces from a speed duel. War Story likes to close and could get in the mix at 50-1.
R8: In a BC Juv Filly Turf almost devoid of speed, I like the E8 Ruby Notion trying route for the first time with high EP and best dirt PF at 12-1.
R9: 15 fillies and mares in the BC Distaff, and only 2 true frontrunners, that don’t always make the lead. One of them is My Sweet Addiction at 20-1 ML, whose last race performance is as good as any, losing only to Beholder. The top EP figures belongs to Yahilwa at 20-1, who lost narrowly last out in a 3 neck battle to Got Lucky and Untapable, who are 6-1 and 5-1. That’s a large gap for a neck.
R10: Once again, two strong favorites, but being a Marathon, you have to look twice at top LP For Greater Glory at 6-1. Top EP Zambian Dream at 20-1 would like to see if some speed can hold up for 14f after two strong dirt races, and a strong finish of 2nd in a turf route of 12f, 4 races back where he ran from the rear in a foreign race.

So, as you can see, there’s value in every race Friday at Keeneland. I want you to go ahead and try out Friday’s Grid and see what you can get. If so you can become a fan and get Saturday’s Grid which includes the biggest races of the weekend including the Mile, Turf and Classic.

We don’t have time to get to any Saturday previews today. Perhaps tomorrow after recapping the action and applying what we learned from the first day of BC races.

Get the full race card Grids for both days right here:
Full Access to Breeders Cup Grids including spreadsheet files both days

Remember, it’s Halloween, so there will be some great looking horses disguised as nobodies, and some ordinary contenders dressed up as scary monsters. Don’t be fooled.

Saturday’s Lineup is even more impressive:
Keeneland: Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I), $5,000,000g, 3&up, 10f.
Keeneland: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (TwinSpires) (gr. I), $1,000,000g, 3&up f/m, 7f.
Keeneland: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I), $2,000,000g, 3&up f/m, 9.5f.
Keeneland: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Sentient Jet) (gr. I), $2,000,000g, 2yo c/g, 8.5f.
Keeneland: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (14 Hands Winery) (gr. I), $2,000,000g, 2yo f, 8.5f.
Keeneland: Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. I), $2,000,000g, 3&up, 8f.
Keeneland: Breeders’ Cup Sprint (TwinSpires) (gr. I), $1,500,000g, 3&up, 6f.
Keeneland: Breeders’ Cup Turf (Longines) (gr. I), $3,000,000g, 3&up, 12f.
Keeneland: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (TwinSpires) (gr. I), $1,000,000g, 3&up, 5.5f.
Keeneland: Fort Springs, $100,000g, 3yo f, 6f.
Keeneland: Juvenile Dirt Sprint, $100,000g, 2yo, 6f.
Keeneland: Perryville S, $100,000g, 3yo, 6f.

Good luck at Breeders’ Cup this weekend!
Dalton

PS… you may be wondering how you can get into all this wagering action, without making a trip to the track or OTB, Atlantic City, the local casino, or Vegas every time you want to bet on horses. Well, it’s actually really simple, completely legal, and FREE to bet from your computer through TwinSpires.com.

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