Weekend Winners Club

March 3, 2016
Churchill Downs

Here we go again with another week of the (Double) Derby Dozen. We might as well list 2 dozen because there will be 20 in the race, but it’s the rankings that count. Topping our rankings like most reasonable analysts, are Nyquist and Fountain of Youth champion Mohaymen.
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And, here we go again with me taking flak for keeping Nyquist atop the rankings for yet another week. In fact, he’s been number one on my list since November. I’m not one to flip flop my rankings every time a 3yo horse wins a prep race, no matter what grade it is. Let’s list the double dozen then get to analysis.

Nyquist geared down in San Vicente G2
Benoit Photo

Besides the fact that Nyquist has yet to lose in 6 career races, including a G2, 3 straight G1’s including the BC Juvenile, and most recently the San Vicente G2, there is more to like besides the sprinter’s pedigree and the fact that nobody has beaten the Uncle Mo colt.

Trainer Doug O’neill is so confident in him that he will enter in only one Derby points race this year, most likely the Florida Derby on 4/2. If he doesn’t finish ITM in that race, he could be out of the Kentucky Derby picture, because there are 12 other races where the winner will take 50 or 100 Derby points, and 7 where the runner up will gather 40. Nyquist stands at 30, but he will be ITM.

The Fla Derby is shaping up to be a fascinating race. So far, it looks like our top two ranked horses, Nyquist and Mohaymen, will face off in the coveted Gulfstream G1. Joining them could be Fountain of Youth runner up Zulu who made his 3rd lifetime start in the G2, and Awesome Speed who finished a decent 4th in the FOY.

The San Felipe on 3/12 is also looking to be a great race. Bob Lewis G2 and Los Al Futurity G1 winner Mor Spirit should take on Exaggerator, who finished 4th in the BCJ and runner up to Nyquist in the San Vicente. Smokey Image will most likely be joining them.

Smokey Image is a very interesting creature. The son of Southern Image is undefeated in 6 starts, including 5 stakes races in a row, most recently the $250k Cal Cup Derby. However, Carla Gaines has not entered him in a single points race. The bottom line is that if he’s a Ky Derby prospect, he needs to start getting some points now, most likely in the San Felipe.

Most of our top 12 is self explanatory, with horses winning or placing highly in graded stakes company. But there are some sleepers. Brody’s Cause, who finished 3rd in the BC Juvenile, could be making his first 3yo start in the Tampa Bay Derby on 3/12, worth 50 Ky Derby points to the winner.

The Louisiana (Risen Star) contingent of Mo Tom, Forevamo, and Gun Runner look very strong, and they may be joined by Holy Bull runner up Greenpointcrusader in the La Derby later this month. The Louisiana Derby field is always strong and this race can’t be dismissed.

This week, gelding Sunny Ridge will take on a Gotham G3 field of 8, in which, despite his credentials as Withers G3 champion and runner up in the Delta Jackpot G3 and Champagne G1 (to Greenpointcrusader), he is not favored. The morning line favorite is actually Shagaf, winner of a maiden and OC75. Withers 3rd placer Adventist will join them in an otherwise marginal field.

Some mysteries still abound as well. BC Juvenile runner up Swipe has been derailed with injury but trainer Keith Desormeux wants him back on the Kentucky Derby trail this year. Riker, and Cocked and Loaded, have yet to race since the BCJ, and we don’t know where Airoforce is headed after his humiliating Risen Star loss.

Flexibility showed promise in NY finishing 2nd to Mohaymen several times, then winning his own graded stakes race, before finishing 4th in the Withers. Let’s Meet In Rio showed promise but hasn’t raced since a nice come from behind 2nd in the Sham in early January. Synchrony is nowhere to be found.

We will be sure to let you know whenever we do, where the double dozen is running next, and who has the best chance of winning these high stakes races en route to the Kentucky Derby in May.

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