Weekend Winners Club

Saturday, May 7
Churchill Downs
.
So far, we made a great amount of materials on this race, including graphics on how the race will play out, with positions at each quarter mile.
.
This exercise culminated in a close finish with Gun Runner over Nyquist and Exaggerator. I don’t doubt this, but the Derby Grid has one horse that is eminently qualified, heads and shoulders above the others.
.
Exaggerator has a check mark by all 30 criteria except for one of the non-pertinent factors: strong previous Churchill race. He’s never raced at the Twin Spires, but does have some strong Keeneland races.
.
I’ve never had a horse that qualified on every single pertinent criteria and all non-mandatory except one. He can run from anywhere on the track and has proven it.
.
One thing I like always, about both Exaggerator and my other top pick Gun Runner, is the Raise a Native sireline. I will box them with Trojan Nation for my RAN box, and try for a super including Danzing Candy holding on for 4th on the dry track. Those are the only 4 RAN horses but they’re all good.
.
Nyquist is the only horse that can bust into the box. I figure, realistically, he can finish in the money and even win. Therefore I’ll wheel him in there with the RAN horses who I believe will dominate this race.

Trackback URI | Comments RSS