May 04 2017
Kentucky Derby 2017 Pace Scenario Analysis
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Thursday, May 4
Churchill Downs
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It seems like I find myself saying this a lot in recent years, but once again, this year’s Kentucky Derby doesn’t have a whole lot of pace in it. Such has been the case the past 3 years when early running types won the Derby, and a couple long shot frontrunners even managed to get into 2nd.
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There were 3 key defections over the past month that led to this: Malagacy, Battalion Runner, Conquest Mo Money all bowed out, making it 2 true front runners and an very early runner that are out even though they had the points to get in.
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Here is the field in terms of their running style and Quirin speed points.
Note E= Early runner, EP= Early Presser, P= Pace Presser, S= Sustained runner
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1 | Lookin At Lee | 20-1 | S0 |
2 | Thunder Snow | 20-1 | EP5 |
3 | Fast And Accurate | 50-1 | EP7 |
4 | Untrapped | 30-1 | P2 |
5 | Always Dreaming | 5-1 | EP7 |
6 | State Of Honor | 30-1 | E7 |
7 | Girvin | 15-1 | P1 |
8 | Hence | 15-1 | S1 |
9 | Irap | 20-1 | EP6 |
10 | Gunnevera | 15-1 | S0 |
11 | Battle Of Midway | 30-1 | EP7 |
12 | Sonneteer | 50-1 | S1 |
13 | J Boys Echo | 20-1 | P1 |
14 | Classic Empire | 4-1 | EP6 |
15 | Mccraken | 5-1 | S3 |
16 | Tapwrit | 20-1 | P2 |
17 | Irish War Cry | 6-1 | EP8 |
18 | Gormley | 15-1 | EP5 |
19 | Practical Joke | 20-1 | P2 |
20 | Patch | 30-1 | P3 |
A | Royal Mo | 50-1 | E7 |
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The Derby is now left with no true frontrunners and only 4 that actually vie for the lead at an early part of the race. Two of these now have a great chance: Irish War Cry and Always Dreaming, and 2 that probably still have no chance at the purse but might: Fast and Accurate and State of Honor. Regardless, they will all likely be part of the pace scenario going into the stretch.
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This sets up well also for Classic Empire, Irap, Gormley, Thunder Snow, and Battle of Midway as fellow early running types that press the pace throughout the race. Of those, the first 3 have shown the class to actually win a Grade 1 race.
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Others that come from mid pack such as Untrapped, J Boys Echo, Tapwrit, Practical Joke, Girvin and Patch are all offered a decent chance to hit the board under this scenario. Of these, I would give the last 4 a chance based on class.
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Sustained runners like Hence, Gunnevera, Sonneteer, Mccraken, and Lookin at Lee will have a hell of a time getting up to the wire in time if the pace is soft and they gallop around for the first half mile or so. These are the best closers in the race, but will likely need to be a bit closer than usual to have a chance.
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Of course, we’re not the only people that study this. The jockeys and trainers are all aware of the current situation and most will have their contingencies set. That almost never includes changing a horse’s running style completely, but that has happened. See Mine That Bird.
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Some will have little choice in the matter. The closers will have to gallop around for at least half a mile or so before even thinking about making their big move. If they move too early they’ll flatten, so the riders have to gauge how fast the frontrunners are going.
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The early running riders will be focused on keeping their horse reserved and relaxed early to have plenty in the tank for the stretch run in a race longer than any of the horses have had before. But since none of them are true frontrunners, they are unlikely to get in a suicidal speed duel early.
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The most likely change would involve the pace pressers putting a lot more pressure than usual on the pace if the riders feel that there is too much lollygagging on the front end. This results in a large group vying up front in a more heated pace, and a better scenario for the closers.
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Based on the current pace scenario as is, I would have to pick a top 5 of Classic Empire, Irish War Cry, Always Dreaming, Irap and Gormley. I’d even give Thunder Snow and Battle of Midway a shot to finish in the money. The later runners will have their work cut out for them, unless there are some significant deviations from this pace scenario.
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