Weekend Winners Club

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March 27, 2018. It’s about that time to take a look at who is already in this year’s Kentucky Derby field for 2018, being that it is less than 6 weeks away. Then the fun part: we’ll analyze those that could, should, or would get in.
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Based on last year’s model, which used the same point system and assigned races as this year’s with a couple exceptions, the cutoff would be at 32 points, which means Keith Desormeaux may once again get the last horse in.
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Last year Keith got Sonneteer with 30 points as the last horse in, but it was based on a few defections by higher ranked horses, and there were 2 other horses with 30 points that did NOT get in.
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This year there are 6 races left worth 100-40-20-10 each, meaning that 12 new horses could automatically have at least 40 points on the board. Of course, this is unlikely, as most of them have prepped before and already have points. Plus the Lexington stakes is worth 20 for a bubble horse.
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Indeed, at least 10 of the horses scheduled for the remaining races already have at least 30 points, and several others have at least 10. And these are the most likely horses to finish in the money in these preps. So, it will definitely not be 12 new horses. But about 6 wouldn’t be out of the question.
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In addition, Japan and Europe will likely send at least 1 horse between them. Therefore we shall set the bar at 32 points for qualification now.
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Refer to the current points chart as of March 26 (the next qualifying races on March 31 with the Florida and UAE Derbies) for the current standings. Full Kentucky Derby Point Standings Here
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Rank	Horse	Trainer	Points	$takes
1	Noble Indy	Todd Pletcher	110	$640,000
2	Bolt d’Oro	Mick Ruis	64	$780,000
3	Enticed	Kiaran McLaughlin	63	$360,880
4	Bravazo	D. Wayne Lukas	54	$359,913
5	Promises Fulfilled	Dale Romans	52	$256,480
6	Magnum Moon	Todd Pletcher	50	$540,000
7	Runaway Ghost	Todd Fincher	50	$520,310
8	Quip	Rodolphe Brisset	50	$212,000
9	Lone Sailor	Tom Amoss	42	$273,347
10	McKinzie	Bob Baffert	40	$320,000
11	Good Magic	Chad Brown	34	$1,238,400
12	Solomini	Bob Baffert	34	$616,000
13	My Boy Jack	Keith Desormeaux	32	$502,000
14	$ – Flameaway	Mark Casse	30	$472,260
15	Firenze Fire	Jason Servis	29	$582,500
16	Free Drop Billy	Dale Romans	24	$497,200
17	Snapper Sinclair	Steven Asmussen	22	$321,810
18	Combatant	Steven Asmussen	22	$300,000
19	Blended Citizen	Doug O’Neill	22	$129,644
20	Strike Power	Mark Hennig	20	$199,560
21	Dream Baby Dream	Steven Asmussen	20	$176,000
22	Old Time Revival	Kenneth Decker	20	$80,000
23	Instilled Regard	Jerry Hollendorfer	19	$196,000
24	Peace	Richard Mandella	15	$123,000
25	Catholic Boy	Jonathan Thomas	14	$330,000
26	Avery Island	Kiaran McLaughlin	14	$320,000
27	Givemeaminit	Dallas Stewart	12	$196,000
28	Greyvitos	Adam Kitchingman	10	$300,000
29	Audible	Todd Pletcher	10	$208,320
29	The Tabulator	Larry Rivelli	10	$186,750
30	Kanthaka	Jerry Hollendorfer	10	$168,000
31	World of Trouble	Jason Servis	10	$145,000
32	Lombo	Michael Pender	10	$90,345
32	f-Paved	Michael McCarthy	10	$60,000

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Now, we have about 13 horses that are likely to go as long as they are healthy. Plus we can probably expect at least 1 horse from Japan or Europe. So that gives us 14. 6 more are needed, so this is where the fun starts.
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First of all, we’ll start with the obvious 32 point bubble horse My Boy Jack. Desormeaux could wait to see if he gets in but will likely race him again in the Arkansas Derby to pick up a few more points. Keith races his horses more often than others, including this horse, running him 3 weeks back twice, albeit on turf. This one has only prepped 3 times this year and may do one more.
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The two with 34 points are both running in 100 point preps and will likely pick up additional points of some sort in their final preps so I think we can safely say they are in if healthy.
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Ranking the possible additional qualifiers:
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1. Audible was the Holy Bull G2 winner in early February, and only has 10 points, but Pletcher is so confident in him that he will only prep him once more in the Florida Derby this weekend, which he will probably win. Plus we have him ranked #7.
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2. Justify currently has 0 points and hasn’t run in a stakes race yet, but we have him ranked 8th, and many have him ranked higher. A top 2 finish in the Arkansas Derby will get him in, and if he continues as he has done in his first 2 this year, that will be no problem.
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3. Strike Power has 20 points and didn’t do enough to catch a lollygagging pace in the Fountain of Youth. He’s ready for business in the Fla Derby and will need to finish top 3.
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4. Firenze Fire has been up and down and hasn’t done enough yet, but just a 4th place finish in the Wood will likely be enough to get him in with 10 more points.
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5. Free Drop Billy has 5 top 2 finishes, 1 third, and only 1 finish out of the money in the BC Juvenile. We expect him to pick up some points in the Blue Grass and qualify.
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6. Gold Town will likely be the UAE Derby favorite, and has won 2 in a row at Meydan for Godolphin, who has been less enthusiastic about shipping to Kentucky in recent years, but will do so if they believe he’s good enough.
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7. Combatant also has only 1 finish out of the top 3, a 4th place in his first maiden race. It’s unclear where he will prep next, but he is likely to pick up some points in a top 4 finish. If he finishes top 3 he’ll get in.
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The remaining horses are on the outside looking in.
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8. Flameaway has 30 points and will need a top 4 finish in the Blue Grass to get in. Good Magic, Blended Citizen, Free Drop Billy, Quip, and Flameaway are all fighting for those same spots, so it won’t be easy, but 4th is all he needs.
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9. Blended Citizen was not impressive on dirt but has 3 ITM finishes since switching to polytrack, most recently getting up for a nice Jeff Ruby Steaks win. Now he will need a top 3 finish in the Blue Grass on dirt, with the above contenders, so he has his work cut out.
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10. Catholic Boy has 14 points, 3 wins, 1 fourth, and recently a 2nd place in the Sam Davis stakes. All his marbles are in the Florida Derby where he will need to beat out at least 1 of Audible, Strike Power, and Promises Fulfilled, as well as maybe 6 or more others, for 3rd place.
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11. Dream Baby Dream ran his first graded stakes race in the Sunland Derby G3 on March 24, and it was his most impressive yet, closing for a strong 2nd, his best lifetime finish after getting 3rd in his previous 4. He may break his maiden in the Lexington Stakes to get in.
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12. Instilled Regard has not done much wrong, with 2 wins, 2 2nds, and a 3rd, except finish 4th in the Risen Star G2 in Feb, leaving him short on points. He will need a top 3 finish in the Santa Anita Derby to get in.

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Get the full Kentucky Derby 2018 Grid here when available.

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