Weekend Winners Club

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Friday, May 4, 2018. Pulling another page from our Kentucky Derby History database, we take a look at jockeys and trainers and their relevance in the Run for the Roses. Shortly we will combine that with the info in the Sirelines article and that in the Major Prep results article and put it all together for you.
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Most people would concur that the trainer is the single most important connection for a Kentucky Derby champion. You will find no disagreement here. When you look at the small handful of trainers that actually make it to the Kentucky, and those that actually win, repeatedly, it is obvious.
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Consider this, out of all the thousands of trainers in the US, in the last 20 years, 1998-2017, there have been 7 repeat Kentucky Derby trainer champions, an astounding 35%! Only 16 different trainers have won the Kentucky Derby during that time frame. It’s difficult enough to get a horse into the race.
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This year’s key trainers (regardless of their trainees this year) and who their entries are in the Derby. You will notice them in the above graphic in bold.
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A-LIST TRAINERS:
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BOB BAFFERT, 4 time Derby champion, trains favorite JUSTIFY and SOLOMINI. Bob became the most recent Triple Crown Champion trainer with American Pharoah in 2015.
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WAYNE LUKAS, 4 time Derby champion, trains BRAVAZO, who could end up the longest shot in the field
(NOTE: leaving out Lukas because he hasn’t won in 20 years, as some might, is a mistake. First of all, he would say “Boy, I was winning the Derby before you were born,” which isn’t true but close enough. )
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TODD PLETCHER, 2 time Derby champion, trains AUDIBLE, MAGNUM MOON, VINO ROSSO, NOBLE INDY. Todd has usually brought 4 or 5 to the dance for years and finally brought one home in 2010.
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DOUG O’NEILL, 2 time Derby champion, may get in with alternate entry BLENDED CITIZEN in the case of a scratch.
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KIRIAN MCLAUGHLIN, 1 time Derby champion with 50-1 Giacamo, trains ENTICED this year
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JASON SERVIS, 1 time Derby champion of crowd pleaser Smarty Jones, brings FIRENZE FIRE
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The remaining trainers are a talented handful of men, but have never won the Kentucky Derby. Of course, odds are 3-2 that it will be a new trainer to win the Derby this year. Here are the trainers who have great records and could break through this year.
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B-LIST TRAINERS: (A-LIST but haven’t won the Derby…. Yet)
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CHAD BROWN: Is considered one of the best young trainers in the US if not the world. Yet to hit 40 years old, he’s won dozens of major graded stakes, 5 Breeders Cup races, and 1 Preakness last year. It’s a matter of time before he wins the Roses and this year all his marbles are on GOOD MAGIC.
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DALE ROMANS: Has been in this race his fair share of times without ever winning, despite hitting a record 700 career wins at Churchill Downs last year. He’s won a shitload of other major stakes races, including the Preakness with Shackleford, the only horse from the Storm Cat sireline to ever win a Triple Crown race. This year he has longshots PROMISES FULFILLED (by Shackleford) and FREE DROP BILLY.
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STEVE ASMUSSEN: His best chance so far was with Preakness champion Curlin, who also finished in the money in the Derby and Belmont, and is the sire of 3 horses in this field, all of which I expect to do well. However, none of them are Steve’s trainees this year. He has long shot COMBATANT.
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KEITH DESORMEUX: Had a great chance 2 years ago with Exaggerator, who was 2nd in the Derby and won the Preakness, similar to his sire Curlin. This year he has scrappy longshot MY BOY JACK.
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The other handful of trainers has all been to this race multiple times before, and a few of them will likely win it one of these times. The rest would be considered C-LIST, if you will.
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Remember our statistics above though, that with only 35% being repeat trainers, that odds are 3-2 that it will be a first time Derby winning trainer, and almost 3-1 that it will be a repeat trainer. This actually bodes well as a whole for the group that hasn’t won yet.
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KENTUCKY DERBY JOCKEYS
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JOCKEYS are a very important part of the equation too. What you have to remember when looking at these statistics, is that very few jockeys get invited to the Kentucky Derby in general, leaving it usually the same relative group of jockeys competing in the big one each year, despite where the horse came from.
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Put it this way, a trainer will make the Derby based on the performance of the horse that he has trained up to that point, and very very very seldom gets replaced by another trainer in the months before May. If the trainer got them there, they keep them. The only exception I can even think of was when War Emblem was switched to Baffert’s care 2 months before he won the KY Derby.
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Jockeys, on the other hand, might ride a horse until he wins an early prep in January, then get replaced by a top jockey at his track, who will then ride him for the Roses as well. This happens all the time, and if the connections find an open top ranked jockey for their Derby mount at some point, the local guy can get the boot, even after riding him all the way up until April.
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So keeping that in mind, let’s look at the repeat jockey Derby champion numbers. There are now 8 repeat winners in the same time frame from 1998-2017! This is partially due to the replacement reality described above, but also because these are the top riders in North America, which is why they end up on the top mounts. Remember also that they can only ride 1 horse in the Derby!
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So without further ado, let’s go over the repeat offenders and how they might do it again.
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A-LIST JOCKEYS:
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VICTOR EZPINOZA: 3 time champion, most recently back to back in 2014-2015. BOLT D’ORO
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KENT DESORMEUX: 3 time champion. It’s been 10 years but he looks to make it 4 with MY BOY JACK
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JOHN VELAZQUEZ: 2 time champion, including last year, and Pletcher’s fav. VINO ROSSO
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MIKE SMITH: 1 time winner aboard 50-1 Giacomo. Rides favorite JUSTIFY in this year’s edition.
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Most of the other rides have also been to this dance before, some multiple times, and I don’t think many people would be surprised if some of these won it this year or in the future.
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Those that are newcomers to the Kentucky Derby who probably will NOT win it this year: Luis Contreras, Drayden Van Dyke and Kyle Frey, whoever that is. That’s your C-LIST.
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So there you have it. Check off your horses that have the right trainer and jockey to increase your odds of picking the right superfecta.
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Get the full 2018 Kentucky Derby Grid Here with over 80 different factors including pedigree, performance, and historical criteria!
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