Weekend Winners Club

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May 20, 2018. The Preakness aftermath can be categorized as a tale of two camps. In one camp, you have those that were elated at the Justify win and perhaps cashed in their winning tickets of $2.80. In camp 2, there are those immediate detractors shouting that he only won by ½ length as others were closing.
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And then there is our site, which doesn’t belong to any camp or groupthought, which is another word for nonthought, both words that I made up. What we do here is objective analysis. Newsflash: the margin of winning a race does not affect the payouts, for the horses, or for the bettors.
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Of course, the diminishing margin of win is a concern for Justify going into the Belmont Stakes, as two horses literally came out of a cloud where they were Lost in the Fog, to close on him and come within that ½ length of victory. And consequently, both have better final ¼ mile times than Justify.
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What you may not know, is that another Baffert horse also had a better ¼ mile time by over a second, in the previous race, which was albeit 1 furlong shorter. And his 8.5f winning time in the Sir Barton was also 2 tenths of a second better than Justify’s. He was also 0.2 seconds faster at the half mile mark. That horse is Ax Man, in his 4th lifetime race.
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There is a reason that old Bob, who is young at heart, enters such a race: so he can see what we just pointed out, how his horse compares to the Preakness field, which he does favorably. Thus we might expect to see Ax Man in the Belmont Stakes, even if it seems a conflict of interest for Bob, who would love for Justify to give him his second Triple Crown sweep.
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If you think about the magnitude of that, we know that there have only been 12 Triple Crown Winners historically, so it’s a very short list already. But consider that of all the trainers who won many TC races, only one has definitely produced multiple Triple Crowns. Jim Fitzsimmons with Gallant Fox and Omaha.
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Legendary hall of fame trainer Ben Jones is also credited by some for Triple Crowns by Whirlaway and Citation, but the latter is also said to have been trained by his son Horace, also in the hall of fame. At any rate, it’s still a very short list, and Baffert having his name on that would ensure his future legend status.
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But what everyone wants to know is: can Justify win the Belmont Stakes? Well of course he can, it’s a horse race and so far he’s the best 3yo, but history is obviously against him. For those 12 Triple Crown champions, there are 22 who won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and did not win the Belmont Stakes. And many others that won 2 of 3 but not all 3.
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Each would be TC Champ has their own individual excuse, but the fact is that the 5 week schedule of the 3 longest races of their young careers, makes it incredibly difficult for them to be at the top of their game for all 3 races. In addition, the added length of the Belmont Stakes makes it difficult for the horse to be conserved and the jockey to move at the right time.
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Let’s factor in a little pedigree. Although horses from the legendary Storm Cat sireline have finished in the money in the Kentucky Derby several times, Justify is the first to actually win it. Now consider that also no Storm Cat sireline horse has ever won the Belmont Stakes, although several have been 2nd or 3rd.
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The Belmont Stakes champions club has been almost exclusively monopolized by primarily the Raise a Native sireline, and also by the AP Indy/ Bold Ruler sireline, who also boast many 2nd or 3rd place finishes. In the past 30 years, only 4 other sirelines have actually won it, a total of 8 times. Those are also heavy odds to overcome. The past 4 Triple Crown winners were split between RAN and BR.
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You can factor in the front end running style, which is difficult to win with at 12 furlongs and has not been done very often at all in the Belmont Stakes. When it has, it’s been by confused jockeys that allow the winner to be some long shot, which Justify will definitely not be. He’s no rabbit, and they’ll be pressing him.
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So did we answer the question? Yes Justify can win the Belmont Stakes, but the odds are obviously against him. The competition will be fierce and he will need to be the superhorse his backers want him to be to win this one and sweep the Triple Crown.

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