Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, June 9, Belmont Park. Today we look at a brief history of Triple Crown Champions, adequate to the occasion, since yet another horse, the 7th this century, is trying to win the coveted crown by winning the Belmont Stakes today in what is the longest race that any of them has faced yet.
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You may have heard that Triple Crown Champions come in bunches. Well, they used to anyway. In fact, there were 3 in the 1930s, 4 in the 40s, and then none until the 70s, wherein there were 3 including the great Secretariat. But if you look back about 100 years ago, there was only won in the 1910s.
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Then you can skip several more decades from the 70s to 2015, where American Pharoah became the first to win it since 1978, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden to victory by Victor Espinoza. As covered in a previous article, here is the short list of actual Triple Crown Champions.
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A much longer list consists of those that won the first 2 legs and did not win the Belmont Stakes, some by excruciatingly short lengths of defeat. When I first got into thoroughbred racing, I was treated to 3 years in a row of heartbreaking Belmont losses by Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Charismatic.
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Since those explosive 40’s, there have been 5 Triple Crown Champions, and 19 who won the first 2 of 3 legs but could not seal the deal. Here is the longer list of the losers who have reason to be sore.
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There are some things to be learned from this data. To the untrained eye, you see 19 who lost the Belmont, highlighted in a shade of blue. Then you see some horses in red print and wonder what that is. Those are the years where Raise a Native sireline did not win a single Triple Crown race that year.
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Raise a Native (RAN) had his first eligible Triple Crown crop in 1967. Since then, his sireline has swept the Triple Crown races almost as many times as it failed to win a leg of the Triple Crown. And you will notice from the graphic, on several occasions where the presumptive TC champ was beaten, it was by a RAN sireline horse.
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Why do you want to know all of this? Justify will win the Belmont and nobody can stop him, right? Many said the same thing about California Chrome, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, and especially Alysheba, Pleasant Colony, and Spectacular Bid, and possibly others of the 19 on that list.
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The fact is, the odds are still against Justify in almost every way. Justify is the first from the famous Storm Cat (RIP) sireline to win the Kentucky Derby, and would be the first to win the Belmont. It wouldn’t be the first time by any means, for a horse by RAN or API to put a stop to his bid.
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If you want to use common sense instead of hype and emotion, you will see that reliable Belmont sirelines such as RAN and API/BR have the best chance of winning. That list makes up half of the current Belmont Stakes field, as you can see highlighted in the Belmont Stakes Grid snapshot below.
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RAN is represented by Tenfold, Blended Citizen, and Vino Rosso, and AP Indy has Hofburg and Noble Indy. These are all in fact, viable contenders, as is long shot Free Drop Billy, whose sire won the Belmont Stakes a few years ago. Let’s take a look at these contenders.
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Vino Rosso (RAN) went 9th in the Kentucky Derby and may not have liked the mud, but sure did like his last jaunt in New York where he won the Wood Memorial going away. Restoring Hope was passed like a rock.
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Blended Citizen (RAN) skipped the Triple Crown so far and came back last month to win the Peter Pan here at Belmont Park, in another come from behind victory.
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Hofburg (API) ran an excellent Florida Derby for 2nd behind 3rd place Kentucky Derby finisher Audible, then wound up 7th in the Kentucky Derby after being steadied twice in the large field.
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Noble Indy (API) had a horrendous Kentucky Derby finishing 17th after his impressive Louisiana Derby win, but should bounce back after a month of rest.
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Tenfold (RAN) did not qualify for the Ky Derby but made a good run at the Preakness for 3rd, losing by just ¾ length to Justify in the end.
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Bravazo (ND) actually did well in the Ky Derby, finishing 6th after a disgusting Louisiana Derby finish. He also closed well for 2nd in the Preakness, just a neck behind Justify. Wayne Lukas knows his way around Pimlico and Belmont better than most trainers do.
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It’s not my point to kill anyone’s Triple Crown buzz here, since mine has been killed numerous times. You just have to get used to reality. Most likely, it will not happen this year. American Pharoah will probably go down as the lone TC Champ from this decade, much like the 1st ever, Sir Barton, in 1919.
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Since this will be the last article before the Belmont Stakes, we might as well give you the picks.
Noble Indy
Justify
Hofburg
Vino Rosso
Blended Citizen

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