Weekend Winners Club

Breeders Cup Day 2: Value and Longshots
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Saturday, November 2, Churchill Dows. Racing is already underway for the Breeders Cup Day 2 and there have already been some long shots. I wanted to wait to see how a few races played out. Race 1 and 2 winners were predictable, but then we get to race 3, the 1st Breeders Cup race, and chaos ensues.
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IN race 3 the filly and mare sprint, Shamrock Rose won at 25-1. Not the longest shot in the field, she was the 7th betting choice out of 14. If you look at that race on paper, 10 of the 14 have QSP of 5 or more. That’s a lot of speed. There was only 1 with 0, the P0, who won the race. In 4th was the P2. Chaos
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Race 4 it was back to predictability with the top 3 betting choices finishing top 3.
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Race 5 BC Dirt Mile: The top 2 favs look very solid coming in and I doubt they will be beat. If the pace does get really heated, look for the two S types and the P, 6 7 and 8 , to get in on the action.
Value 6 7 8
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Race 6 BC Filly Mare Turf 11f: Typically the Euros win this type of race. Wild Illusion and Magic Wand will likely be the top 2 betting choices. Eziyra looks to be of great value so far. A Raving Beauty and Santa Monica could surprise because there’s just not much speed, other than Magic Wand and Thais.
Value 9 12 14
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Race 7 BC Sprint 6f: This has the least early speed of any BC Sprint in memory. We’re getting double digits on Distinctive B. This race will deliver on Promises Fulfilled as well with early inside speed. Roy H and Imperial Hint have their work cut out for them.
Value 2 7
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Race 8 BC Mile turf: Again you have to think Euros, but because it’s 1 mile and not 2, the Americans have a chance. Almost a complete lack of speed in this one among the horses we have digits for. Oscar Performance and Analyze it should do very well. Most of the foreigners look good, especially Expert Eye and Mustashry.
Value 5 and 12 hopefully if they don’t get bet down. 7 8 and 14
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Race 9 BC Distaff 9f: Monomoy Girl is the one to beat, and there’s no reason to doubt her. Again not much early speed here so Abel Tasman, Midnight Bissou, Wow Cat, Blue Prize and even Wonder Gadot could get in on it. Vale Dori could be back in top form.
Value: 9 7 10
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Race 10 BC Turf 12f: Again with the Euros. Favorite Enable may be a filly but nobody told her she’s supposed to lose to the colts, which she doesn’t. Magical is coming off a G1 win at Ascot. Channel Maker is excellent and Robert Bruce has great late pace ability. Glorious Empire is on a 3 win streak. So many great horses.
Value: 3 4 5 7
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Race 11 BC Classic: There’s no doubt Accelerate is the class of the field, winning 5 of last 6 in the best of company. We have to find some value though. Pavel is in top form. Catholic Boy made a great return to dirt in winning the Travers, and McKenzie was Baffert’s top 3yo, ahead of Justify, until he got injured. There’s a solid amount of speed to make it honest but should not get too hot up front.
Value: 6 1 8 11 12
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