Weekend Winners Club

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January 24, 2019. The first Derby Double Dozen of the year is finally released, giving you a full two dozen horses to choose from and some rationale for the ranking. The top 5 may look like a who’s who of the top finishers in the BC Juvenile. Well, it is, but there are 2 main reasons for that. 1. Those top 5 have beaten the competition they’ve faced elsewhere, with one exception. 2. The BC Juvenile having been at Churchill Downs is a big factor for a Kentucky Derby hopeful.
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Kentucky Derby Central
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In fact, here’s an impact value you won’t get elsewhere. The last 2 Breeders Cup Juvenile Champions where the BC was run in Kentucky (including Keeneland), who actually ran in the Kentucky Derby, both won the Derby. The other 3 finished 3rd, 8th, and 10th. The 4 other champs did not actually run for the roses, including Uncle Mo, who was a heavy favorite before scratching, and had his son Nyquist win it instead. So that’s 2 winners straight, and a 3rd out of the 5 that actually participated. Not bad.
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1. Game Winner has to prove he can be beaten by anyone before he gets demoted. Probably a unanimous number one by anyone with horse sense, he won 3 Grade 1 races as a 2yo including the BCJ. He has yet to race this year but is looking like another Baffert juggernaut. You wouldn’t have been wrong to bet him in the futures pool 1 because his final odds of 5-1 may actually go down from there. Winning the BCJ at Churchill is a big indicator for a great Derby performance. (Further breakdown below the chart)
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2. Signalman has not done much wrong, losing only to Knicks Go in the Breeders Futurity and BCJ, and to Game Winner of course. He rebounded for a big win 3 weeks later in the KYJC on the sloppy sealed track, so he has no issues with two extreme variations of Churchill so far. He is Kenny McPeek’s best Derby hope in a while and will probably appear in either the Risen Star or Southwest next.
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3. Knicks Go gets a partial pass for his only bad race, the Kentucky Jockey Club G2. It is possible that he didn’t like the sloppy sealed track that day, because he obviously did like Churchill Downs 3 weeks before that on a fast track. It’s also possible it was too much too soon. After the Breeders’ Futurity win on Oct.6, then the 2nd place BC Juvenile on Nov.2, he was again on the track for the KYJC G2 and fell flat after ¾ mile. Nonetheless, there is a chink in his armor somewhere, and Churchill Downs is very often an off-track on Kentucky Derby day.
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4. Mr. Money was sent straight to the BCJ after breaking his maiden at Churchill and finished an respectable 4th, although a good 6 lengths behind 3rd place Signalman. Since there are no points races in Kentucky until mid march, like other Kentucky based trainers, Bret Calhoun will probably ship him south into the Risen Star or Southwest.
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5. Gunmetal Gray may have finished well behind the top 3 on this list in the BCJ, but he was probably way too far back to ever win it. Running from last place at the start, he was still 2nd to last after ¾ mile and made a big run for 5th. He then returned home to SoCal and had no problem going from last to first to win the Sham G3 to open the year on Jan.5.
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6. Improbable is very probable to run in the Kentucky Derby, and as a Baffert’s #2 horse, don’t misunderestimate him. He blew away the field in the Los Alamitos Cashcall Futurity, beating his other stablemate Mucho Gusto by 5 lengths and remaining undefeated. Last year Baffert’s #2 became a Triple Crown winner. Baffert usually splits up his top 2 horses, keeping one at home in SoCal and shipping one to the southeast to run a Southwest/Rebel prep track, so I’m predicting he’s probable to appear at Oaklawn or Fairgrounds soon.
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7. Maximus Mischief did not participate in the Kentucky juvenile scene last year, but remained in the northeast, where he is now 3 for 3 after the Remsen G2 win in December. It’s hard to gauge how good he is because his opponents haven’t run against any valid opponents either. But he’s an undefeated winner of a points race.
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8. War of Will looked impressive in winning the Lecomte G3 by 4 lengths against some marginal competition, namely Sugar Bowl Stakes 2nd and 3rd place finishers Manny Wah and Hog Creek Hustle, who also finished in the money in this race. The fractional and final times for that race are not very impressive at all, so it’s impossible to rank him any higher than this.
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9. Long Range Toddy is currently Steve Asmussen’s top Derby mount and has now won 2 stakes races at Remington Park. Last out he headed Bankit for the win in the Springboard Mile, which is not graded but had a $400k purse, and it was a points race so he racked up his 10 points there. He is set to appear in the Smarty Jones tomorrow, Jan.25 at Oaklawn Park, and is currently the 2nd ML choice.
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10. Instagrand has zero points and hasn’t run against the serious competition yet, but did win the Best Pal G2 last out at Del Mar, by 10 lengths. That was in August, and we hear reports that he’s having some nice workouts recently, but we need to see him race again to move him up any farther than this. Hollendorfer has 2 main options. He can run him in the San Vicente and probably win but pick up no points, or see if he’s Derby trail material and move him into the RB Lewis and start getting points.
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11. Mucho Gusto is currently Baffert’s 3rd ranked 3yo, giving him 3 viable Derby contenders. He was 2nd place 5 lengths back to undefeated Improbable in the Los Al futurity, but still 3 lengths ahead of the rest. Before that he was 2 for 2, breaking his maiden and winning the Bob Hope G3 at Del Mar. It’s hard to tell where he’ll appear next or if he’ll tag along playing 2nd fiddle to Improbable again.
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12. Mind Control won the Hopeful G1 at Saratoga then shipped to Kentucky for the BCJ, where he finished almost 20 lengths back in 7th. He did bobble at the start so there could be an excuse. But he returned to New York and won the Jerome against some typical nobodies that race there in the winter.
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