Weekend Winners Club

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Feburary 4, 2019. It’s time once again for a new Derby Dozen, taking into account 3 big prep races last weekend: The Withers G3, Holy Bull G2, and Robert Lewis G3. The top 4 haven’t changed, because they haven’t raced this year, and consequently haven’t been beaten this year. They will have to start moving down if they don’t start running soon. The only one that won’t need any points is Game Winner, but they will all be running some preps this year if they want to run for the roses.
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Kentucky Derby Central has the Derby Points Standings, Derby Prep Race Results and Charts, and all Derby related articles.
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On the other hand, all others on this list except for one, which will be noted below, have raced this year at least once, and some twice already, so we can move them up and down depending on the strength of their race and the field they competed against. So here we give you a full 2 dozen and one horses to consider. A lot of thought and analysis goes into this top 25 and it is probably the best available. The next probable race is mostly an educated guess and not by any means definite.
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1. Game Winner has to prove he can be beaten by anyone before he gets demoted. Probably a unanimous number one by anyone with horse sense, he won 3 Grade 1 races as a 2yo including the BCJ. He has yet to race this year but is looking like another Baffert juggernaut. You wouldn’t have been wrong to bet him in the futures pool 1 because his final odds of 5-1 may actually go down from there. Winning the BCJ at Churchill is a big indicator for a great Derby performance.
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2. Signalman has not done much wrong, losing only to Knicks Go in the Breeders Futurity and BCJ, and to Game Winner of course. He rebounded for a big win 3 weeks later in the KYJC on the sloppy sealed track, so he has no issues with two extreme variations of Churchill so far. He is Kenny McPeek’s best Derby hope in a while and will probably appear in either the Risen Star or Southwest next.
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3. Knicks Go gets a partial pass for his only bad race, the Kentucky Jockey Club G2. It is possible that he didn’t like the sloppy sealed track that day, because he obviously did like Churchill Downs 3 weeks before that on a fast track. It’s also possible it was too much too soon. After the Breeders’ Futurity win on Oct.6, then the 2nd place BC Juvenile on Nov.2, he was again on the track for the KYJC G2 and fell flat after ¾ mile. Nonetheless, there is a chink in his armor somewhere, and Churchill Downs is very often an off-track on Kentucky Derby day.
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4. Mr. Money was sent straight to the BCJ after breaking his maiden at Churchill and finished an respectable 4th, although a good 6 lengths behind 3rd place Signalman. Since there are no points races in Kentucky until mid march, like other Kentucky based trainers, Bret Calhoun will probably ship him south into the Risen Star or Southwest, as I would highly expect him to resume racing this month with only 2 points.
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5. Improbable is very probable to run in the Kentucky Derby, and as a Baffert’s #2 horse, don’t misunderestimate him. He blew away the field in the Los Alamitos Cashcall Futurity, beating his other stablemate Mucho Gusto by 5 lengths and remaining undefeated. Last year Baffert’s #2 became a Triple Crown winner. Baffert usually splits up his top 2 horses, keeping one at home in SoCal and shipping one to the southeast to run a Southwest/Rebel prep track, so I’m predicting he’s probable to appear at Oaklawn or Fairgrounds soon.
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6 . Mucho Gusto is currently Baffert’s 3rd ranked 3yo, giving him 3 viable Derby contenders. He was 2nd place 5 lengths back to undefeated Improbable in the Los Al futurity, but still 3 lengths ahead of the rest. Last out he proved that he’s also a stakes champion, winning the Robert B Lewis on Feb.2 in convincing fashion over proven graded stakes winner Gunmetal Gray, who consequently moves down a notch.
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7. Gunmetal Gray may have finished well behind the top 3 on this list in the BCJ, but he was probably way too far back to ever win it. Running from last place at the start, he was still 2nd to last after ¾ mile and made a big run for 5th. He then returned home to SoCal and had no problem going from last to first to win the Sham G3 to open the year on Jan.5. Last out he tried to catch Mucho Gusto in the Robert Lewis G3 to no avail.
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8. Harvey Wallbanger burst onto the Kentucky Derby scene with a last to first win in the Holy Bull G2 on Feb.2, edging out Everfast and Remsen winner Maximus Mischief. Prior to that, he took 4 turns to break his maiden, but finally got a legit pace to run at in his first stakes contest, and made the most of it with his good closing pace at 29-1. Kenny McPeek now has 2 legit Derby contenders this year.
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9. Everfast also came crashing back onto the Triple Crown Trail with a 2nd place finish in the Holy Bull G2 at 128-1. After looking like he was fading in 4th in the stretch, he stayed on to edge out Remsen winner Maximus Mischief by a neck. Last year he stumbled around on the TC Trail, with 2 subpar preps and 1 abysmal performance in the KYJC G2, but Romans wouldn’t have had him in 3 graded races if he didn’t see the potential, which was on display Feb.2.
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10. Maximus Mischief did not participate in the Kentucky juvenile scene last year, but remained in the northeast, where he was 3 for 3 after the Remsen G2 win in December. I reluctantly included him in the top 10 last time because he hadn’t beat anyone of note. He still hasn’t really done that, but finished a strong 3rd just a length or so back in the Holy Bull G2 Feb.2. It looked he was going too fast early, trying to keep up with pace setter Epic Dreamer who wound up 4th. But that’s his running style, and could be the big chink in his armor.
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11. War of Will looked impressive in winning the Lecomte G3 by 4 lengths against some marginal competition, namely Sugar Bowl Stakes 2nd and 3rd place finishers Manny Wah and Hog Creek Hustle, who also finished in the money in that race. The fractional and final times for that race are not very impressive at all, so it’s impossible to rank him any higher than this, but he is a prep winner.
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12. Instagrand has zero points and hasn’t run against the serious competition yet, but did win the Best Pal G2 last out at Del Mar, by 10 lengths. That was in August, and we hear reports that he’s having some nice workouts recently, but we need to see him race again to move him up any farther than this. Hollendorfer has 2 main options. He can run him in the San Vicente and probably win but pick up no points, or see if he’s Derby trail material and move him into the RB Lewis and start getting points. The bottom line is if he doesn’t prep this month, this will be his last time in our top 12.

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Next Derby Dozen will be done when deemed necessary.

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