Weekend Winners Club

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Monday, February 18, 2019. President’s Day at Oaklawn host 3 graded stakes races. The Bayakoa G3, Razorback G3, and finally the Southwest G3, making it an exciting day for racing in Hot Springs.
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This weekend we have 2 races of the week. Today we have the Southwest G3 at Oaklawn. We also had the Risen Star G2 on Saturday, which we broke down for you beforehand. That race was won by favored War of Will at even money, who was running away with it Country House closed in deep stretch to make it an exciting contest.
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Country House was labeled our super long shot of the day because of his morning line of 20-1, but after lots of smart money came in, he wound up at 6-1 at post time. Here’s how the 4 graded stakes winners measured up in The Grid for Saturday:
R9 Mineshaft G3 8.5 D: Winner top LP and stamina 5-1; Runner up 2nd in power and stamina, top 4 LP
R10 Fairgrounds H G3 9f T: Winner top LP stamina and power; Runner up was 2nd in EP and speed.
R11 Rachel Alexandra G2 8.5 D: Winner top Power, EP, and Speed.
R12 Risen Star G2 8.5 D: Winner in top 3 of 14 in power, stamina; Runner-up tops in stamina and LP, also listed as our Super Long Shot Special at 20-1ML down to 6-1 at post time.
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So we did pretty good on Saturday, and looking to keep that going today at Oaklawn Park, which has 4 stakes races, 3 graded, culminating in the Southwest G3 for 3yo’s prepping for the Kentucky Derby. There are also 4 other various 3yo races on the card, making it a big day for 3yo’s altogether.
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Follow along with us using The Oaklawn Grid here. Scratches have been taken out already.
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The Bayakoa Stakes G3 is race 7 scheduled for 5:09pm ET and has a field of 10 fillies and mares 4up competing 8.5f on dirt. The favorite is She’s a Julie, not surprisingly since she’s trained by Steve Asmussen, who basically owns this track. This race looks very chalky on paper. Not betting.
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The Razorback Handicap G3 in Race 8 looks like a much better betting race, with 14 horses 4up going 8.5f on dirt. Favored Coal Front is legit with Todd Pletcher winning 3 graded stakes with him in 7 career races but he hasn’t gone 2 turns in a race yet. So it’s a great time to look for some value, which there always is in a field of 14.
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Nun the Less 12-1 is our second pick, with Cipriano Contreras having good stats in these situations. The 7yo gelding is coming off a stakes win at turfway and has The Grid’s top LP, and tied with the top PF with the favorite. Our 3rd pick is Nanoosh also 12-1 ML, and is tied for the 2nd highest PF with his Zia Park Derby win last out in November. The layoff is a concern but he was last seen rapidly improving last year.
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Copper Bullet 6-1 will likely be the 2nd choice due to Steve Asmussen coaching him in his 7th career race. He won a G2 last year at Saratoga and it will also be his first time around two turns. Our 5th pick is Tiz He The One 10-1 who ended last year in great form winning 3 in a row at Laurel.
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Razorback G3 long shot specials:
Nun the Less 12-1
Nanoosh 12-1
Tiz He The One 10-1
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The Southwest G3 is the featured race with 11 3yo’s slated to go 8.5f on dirt and a Kentucky Derby slot, which is not automatic in this race since it’s only worth 10-4-2-1 Derby points. But every point counts on the Triple Crown Trail, and several of these have some points already. 20 points are usually required to make the Derby field, so Gray Attempt or Long Range Toddy could actually stamp their ticket today.
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Steve Asmussen is one such trainer who likes to nickel and dime his stable into the Kentucky Derby with 10 points here, 4 points there, etc. He has 5 horses in this race, giving him almost half the field and a good shot of earning some points for some of them. Long Range Toddy is his best hope, with 14 points already and coming off a 2nd place in the Smarty Jones. I’m not sure why he’s at 10-1 ML but that will come down for sure. The only other in his stable worthy of a 2nd look is Jersey Agenda at 5-1 ML, who can improve on his 3 lifetime races.
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The favorite Cutting Humor is legit at 3-1, trained by Pletcher and is the best consistent late runner in the field, which appears to have a lot of speed in it, at least on paper. That sometimes means lots of restraint by jockeys early so we have to see how it plays out, but most likely speed dueling will happen.
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The top LP technically belongs to Olympic Runner 15-1, but the way it’s calculated, it’s based on only 1 race, his last one which was an impressive front running win in the slop at Gulfstream at 8.5f, breaking his maiden in his 2nd attempt. I expect those odds also go to single digits but still worth betting on.
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The horse to catch in most people’s minds is Gray Attempt, the speedy front runner who held on to win the Smarty Jones last out, just holding off the challenge by Long Range Toddy by a neck. If the other speed in this field challenges him, I expect most of them will fold. Unfortunately, there aren’t many reliable closers in the field other than those we already mentioned, Cutting Humor and LR Toddy.
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Picks for Soutwest G3:
Cutting Humor 3-1
Long Range Toddy 10-1 long shot special
Olympic Runner 15-1 super long shot special
Gray Attempt 3.5-1
Jersey Agenda 5-1
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So with those 3 graded stakes breakdowns, go ahead and get The Grid for Oaklawn today, compliments of us, and go win some bets dammit.
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As usual, you can subscribe to get all the Grids for major tracks every race day here.
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