Weekend Winners Club

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Feb.22 2019: It’s time once again for a renewal of the Kentucky Double Derby Dozen, taking into account last weekends stakes actions in the Risen Star G2, Southwest G3, El Camino Real Derby, and Miracle Wood, the last of which is not a points race but there is some significance. Here our list included the top 25 Kentucky Derby contenders and a brief summary of the top 12.
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Use Kentucky Derby Central for Derby Points standings and Championship Series Prep race results.
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There has been some more shuffling, including some near the top this time, as some of the prior horses finally raced this year and weren’t very impressive. Maybe they were just rusty, but things are changing. Some horses are racing and doing it very well this year, and you have to be part of that group to stay in the top. The top 3 haven’t raced yet this year but are expected to within a couple weeks. Keep in mind that the next race possible is mostly an educated guess.
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1. Game Winner has to prove he can be beaten by anyone before he gets demoted. Probably a unanimous number one by anyone with horse sense, he won 3 Grade 1 races as a 2yo including the BCJ. He has yet to race this year but is looking like another Baffert juggernaut. You wouldn’t have been wrong to bet him in the futures pool 2 because his final odds of 5-1 may actually go down from there. Winning the BCJ at Churchill is a big indicator for a great Derby performance.
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2. Signalman has not done much wrong, losing only to Knicks Go in the Breeders Futurity and BCJ, and to Game Winner of course. He rebounded for a big win 3 weeks later in the KYJC on the sloppy sealed track, so he has no issues with two extreme variations of Churchill so far. He is Kenny McPeek’s best Derby hope in a while and will probably appear in the Fountain of Youth G2 in early March, at which time we’ll see if he needs to be demoted.
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3. Improbable is very probable to run in the Kentucky Derby, and as a Baffert’s #2 horse, don’t misunderestimate him. He blew away the field in the Los Alamitos Cashcall Futurity, beating his other stablemate Mucho Gusto by 5 lengths and remaining undefeated. Last year Baffert’s #2 became a Triple Crown winner. He will have to start prepping this year and is expected to in early March.
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4. Mucho Gusto is currently Baffert’s 3rd ranked 3yo, giving him 3 viable Derby contenders. He was 2nd place 5 lengths back to undefeated Improbable in the Los Al futurity, but still 3 lengths ahead of the rest. Last out he proved that he’s also a stakes champion, winning the Robert B Lewis on Feb.2 in convincing fashion over proven graded stakes winner Gunmetal Gray.
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5. Gunmetal Gray may have finished well behind the top 3 on this list in the BCJ, but he was probably way too far back to ever win it. Running from last place at the start, he was still 2nd to last after ¾ mile and made a big run for 5th. He then returned home to SoCal and had no problem going from last to first to win the Sham G3 to open the year on Jan.5. Last out he tried to catch Mucho Gusto in the Robert Lewis G3 to no avail.
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6. War of Will followed up his Lecomte G3 win in January with an equally impressive victory in the Risen Star G2 on Feb.16, proving that he’s the real deal. This time he beat a slew of top southeast contenders in addition to some of last year’s top 2yo’s, giving Mark Casse a legit Kentucky Derby contender. He has been nicknamed WOW on the Triple Crown Trail.
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7. Country House came out of the clouds to pick up 2nd in the Risen Star, passing 8 horses in the 2nd half of the race with a strong finish. He currently has The Grid’s top LP among 3yo Derby contenders and his sire Lookin at Lucky was a solid Triple Crown Contender. We will probably see him next trying to catch War of Will in the Louisiana Derby on March 23.
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8. Harvey Wallbanger burst onto the Kentucky Derby scene with a last to first win in the Holy Bull G2 on Feb.2 at 29-1 edging out Everfast and Remsen winner Maximus Mischief. Prior to that, he took 4 turns to break his maiden, but finally got a legit pace to run at in his first stakes contest, and made the most of it with his good closing pace at 29-1. Kenny McPeek has at least 2 legit Derby contenders this year.
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9. Everfast also came crashing back onto the Triple Crown Trail with a 2nd place finish in the Holy Bull G2 at 128-1. After looking like he was fading in 4th in the stretch, he stayed on to edge out Remsen winner Maximus Mischief by a neck. Last year he stumbled around on the TC Trail, with 2 subpar preps and 1 abysmal performance in the KYJC G2, but Romans wouldn’t have had him in 3 graded races if he didn’t see the potential, which was on display Feb.2.
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10. Super Steed made his name known by passing all 8 competitors in a devastating 62-1 Southwest G3 win on Feb.18 at Oaklawn. After finishing 4th in the Sugar Bowl and 7th in the Smarty Jones, he was an afterthought for 61 of 62 bettors, but took a big step up and showed great closing ability. Larry Jones will probably point his sole Derby contender to the Rebel G2 on March 16.
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11. Instagrand has zero points and hasn’t run against the serious competition yet, but did win the Best Pal G2 last out at Del Mar, by 10 lengths. That was in August, and we hear reports that he’s having some nice workouts recently, but we need to see him race again to move him up any farther than this. If Hollendorfer thinks he’s a Derby Contender then he should be running in the San Felipe March 9. If not, he’ll be off this list.
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12. Mind Control won the Hopeful G1 at Saratoga then shipped to Kentucky for the BCJ, where he finished almost 20 lengths back in 7th. He did bobble at the start so there could be an excuse. But he returned to New York and won the Jerome against some typical nobodies that race there in the winter. It’s hard to tell where to put him right now, but we expect to see him face off against Max Mischief and some decent competition in the Gotham.
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The rest of the top 25 you can see in the big picture, but what you’ll find interesting is that while Baffert is playing with a stacked deck as usual, Todd Pletcher has zero horses in the top 25. In fact, Todd doesn’t even have a horse in the top 30 in the points standings. That will of course change but for now he has no perceivable contenders. And watch out for Kenny McPeek this year.
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Next Rankings should be out by March 8 in anticipation of the Derby Futures Pool 3.
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Kentucky Derby Grid Options Here

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