Weekend Winners Club

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Friday, March 15, 2019. Hot Springs, Arkansas is the hot spot for thoroughbred racing today, as Oaklawn Park hosts the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, times two, worth 37.5 points to each winner and at least 2 Kentucky Derby tickets which each winner will earn.
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First, a brief explanation is in order. With the indefinite closure of Santa Anita Park, which reopened for light training for 2 days, only to have another horse euthanized after galloping, the San Felipe G2, the main west coast Kentucky Derby prep race scheduled for last weekend, was canceled.
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This left west coast contenders with only 1 prep race this month, the Sunland Derby on March 24, worth 50 points. However, many of them wanted to prep in the Felipe last week and need to determine if they will require another prep next month to get into the Kentucky Derby, which will certainly require at least 20 points as usual. (Note: Arkansas Derby may end up with 2 fields as well.)
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Thus, an airplane full of southern California based horses arrived in Hot Springs this week for a southeast invasion. The double Rebel also marks the 3yo debut of two of the top ranked 3yo’s this year, Bob Baffert’s Game Winner and Improbable. For the sake of brevity, we will refer to the two races as Rebel 1 and Rebel 2.
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Rebel 1 will be conducted in race 8, right after the Azeri in which Elate and Midnight Bisou will run 1-2 in whichever order, leaving the rest of the short field in a race for 3rd. Shamrock Rose and Tapa Tapa Tapa will be the 2 fillies competing for that 3rd place spot.
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In Rebel 1, Baffert’s Improbable will make his 3yo debut. Last seen roasting the field in the Cashcall Futurity G1 at LosAl, he has the highest pair of PF’s and ranks #1 across the board in the Grid. However, he is an early runner in a field that is chock full of speed, including frontrunners Galilean, the 2nd ML choice, and Classy John.
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Rebel 1 thus will be a true test for Improbable to see how he can handle such a speedy race, starting with 3-5 morning line odds. Steve Asmussen owns this track and has a pair in it, but there are no late runners at all in the field of 9. Each horse has Quirin points of 5 or more, so expect a lot of jockey restraint.
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Rebel 2 features the 3yo debut of Baffert’s undefeated 2yo champion Game Winner at 4-5, who was last seen winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November. The field includes fellow Santa Anita survivor and 2nd ML choice Omaha Beach, who has run in 5 MSW’s, finally winning one last out.
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Our Braintrust is the 3rd ML choice after finishing 3rd in the Withers. The 10 horse field also has a good amount of speed in it but looks significantly less competitive than Rebel 1. However, each race has 6 horses with Grid PF’s in the 90s and 3 in the high 90s, so on paper they are somewhat even.
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Because of the speed in Rebel 2 we have to take a look at sole later runner Gunmetal Gray at 10-1, last seen trying to catch Baffert’s speedy Mucho Gusto (pointed to Sunland Derby) from behind in the Robert and Beverly Lewis G2 and getting 2nd. Mid pack stalked Laughing Fox is also eligible to improve as one of Asmussen’s 4 in this race.
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There are also several MSW’s for 3yo’s on the card, in which the connections can decide whether their 3yos can be promoted to the Triple Crown Trail based on their relative performances to the two Rebel races.
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Check out the Oaklawn Sat Grid, including both Rebels, the Azeri, and all other races, free with no string attached! Enjoy!

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