Weekend Winners Club

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March 18, 2019. It’s way past time to give you an updated Kentucky Derby Double Dozen, but always better late than never. Things have been in turmoil since Santa Anita closed earlier this month, canceling the San Felipe G2 and leaving west coast contenders in a mad scramble elsewhere to prep.
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Those contenders of course include Bob Baffert’s top trio of Game Winner, Improbable, and Mucho Gusto. As predicted last month, at least 1 of them shipped to the Rebel (which ended up being 2 of them shipping to 2 Rebel Stakes) while the 3rd would stay behind to run in the Sunland Derby.
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Also predicted elsewhere was that Baffert would end up with the top 3 horses in the rankings at some point. That has just happened, even though 2 did lose (by less than a length) in their respective Rebel G2 competitions. Explanations for top dozen below. The Rebel runnings are covered in detail here, and the Santa Anita saga is covered elsewhere on the site.
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The truth is that either Rebel Stakes would have been the strongest prep field of the year so far, because each featured an undefeated Baffert multiple stakes winner ranked 1 or 2 by most. Rebel 2 was had a larger field and 2yo champion Game Winner, but Rebel 1 had 5 stakes winners. Combined with 8 stakes winners the 2 Rebel runs were undoubtedly the Derby prep event of the year so far.
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1. Game Winner won the BC Juvenile and was undefeated as a 2yo. Baffert was forced to ship him to Oaklawn to prep in the 2nd Rebel G2 stakes of the day on March 16. He missed the mark, gaining on Omaha Beach with every stride in the end but running out of room before the wire. In a 10f race he wins this by 2. It’s unknown if he will prep again but he doesn’t need the points.

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2. Improbable, Baffert’s #2, got passed by Long Range Toddy in the 1st Rebel G2 Stakes of March 16. It looked like he was pressed to soon and fought back in the stretch, but alas his wad was already blown and he was beat by a neck. He could have won it but likely will prep in the Arkansas Derby April 13 next.
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3. Mucho Gusto is Baffert’s 3rd choice and the only 1 of the 3 to have already raced this year before March 16, winning the RB Lewis G3 on Feb.2. As predicted he stayed aloof of the Santa Anita debacle, staying behind in Socal for the Sunland Derby G3 to be run on March 24, which he will likely win.
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4. Omaha Beach provided a nice surprise for Rich Mandella in the Rebel 2 G2 on Mar.16, clinging to an early lead to hold on for an upset win over the late hard charging Game Winner. He certainly now has enough Derby points but we’ll likely see if he’s more than a 1-race wonder in the Arkansas Derby Apr.13.
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5. War of Will is still the points leader and has been perfect in his preps for Mark Casse, winning the Lecomte and Risen Star. Next up he will take on the Louisiana Derby G2 field on Mar.23. His competition so far has been below par but he keeps beating them. His nickname is WOW and he keeps living up to it.
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6. Country House was the hard charging runner up in the Risen Star, sweeping by everyone but WOW down the stretch. He has the top LP of current 3yo’s in contention and is to be considered a serious and dangerous closer. Bill Mott has him in the Louisiana Derby on March 23.
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7. Long Range Toddy was Steve Asmussen’s best bet going into the Rebel 1 on March 16, and proved he was worth the wait, getting a great trip and sweeping from 5th to 1st in the stretch. He’s been up and down but has proven hard to beat when he’s up. We will likely see him next in the Ark. Derby.
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8. Harvey Wallbanger was the big surprise of the year so far, bursting on to the Derby scene with a last to first run in the Holy Bull G2 on Feb.2 at 29-1, edging out fellow longshot Everfast in an admittedly suspect field. His closing ability is no longer in doubt. Next likely in Blue Grass April 6.
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9. Everfast was the heroic 129-1 runner up in the Holy Bull G2 on Feb.2, continuing to press in deep stretch for 2nd place at long odds. With Dale Romans coaching, there’s no telling where he will top out, but he needs at least 1 more prep which could also be in the Blue Grass on April 6.
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10. Tacitus took only 3 career races to go from maiden to maiden winner to graded stakes winner, taking the Tampa Bay Derby G2 by storm in his stakes debut for Bill Mott at almost 9-1. The sky seems to be the limit for this rapidly improving Tapit colt, but he could next prep in the Wood, April 6. .
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11. Code of Honor looked like he might have become another 2yo wonder until he came with game in the Fountain of Youth G2 on March 2, which he won fair and square. The FOY field was not very strong this year, so we can’t rank him much higher. It’s unknown if he will go in the Fla Derby or Wood next.
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12. Tax is clinging to his top 12 ranking based on a Withers G3 win on Feb.2, beating a suspect field by a head. Nonetheless he did beat them and will either prove or disprove his worth in the Wood on April 6 for Danny Gargan.
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For the rest, just read the chart and see where they stand. Things will almost certainly change to some degree after the remaining prep races but the top 3 may not. Next race up is mostly speculation except for the Louisiana Derby field, which is set.
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Stay tuned for all results and analysis at Kentucky Derby Central.

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