Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, June 22. Jack Thistledown Racino. Today’s race of the week (ROW) is the Grade 3 Ohio Derby, the only graded stakes race hosted by TDN. The $500k race for 3yo’s provides a good reason for this to be the one day of the year we’ll provide a free Grid for the somewhat obscure Ohio track.
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The short field of 7 doesn’t lack in some star power this year. ML favorite Owendale is coming off a 3rd in the Preakness and before that a Lexington G3 win at Keeneland. The slight 2nd choice Long Range Toddy is coming off 2 poor races on sloppy surfaces including the Kentucky Derby but was one of 2 Rebel G2 winners before that on a fast track.
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Third in line is Peter Pan G3 winner Global Campaign, who has the highest PF in the Grid for that race. There is no reason to doubt that PF since the 2nd place finisher Sir Winston went on to win the Belmont Stakes 2 weeks ago. Stanley Hough is probably still wondering if he could have won that Belmont.
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4th choice Bethlehem Road is undefeated in his 3 starts including the Parx Spring Derby last out and looks like he could be capable of doing more, but it’s unclear what he will do if he doesn’t get the lead. 5th choice Math Wizard was 4th in his last 2 including the Wood Memorial G2.
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The two long shots are also speedsters that muscle up early, and of those, Dare Day is the one that bears watching. He won both of his starts by 7 and 8 lengths, but they were at 5.5 and 6 furlongs. He would likely have to rate a bit to have a chance at 9f in this short but speedy field.
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Because 4 of the 7 are essentially frontrunners, it’s hard to go against Owendale who not only has the top LP but has been excellent in his last 2 with Florent Geroux rating him towards the rear of the mid pack. Global Campaign and Long Range Toddy look good in this spot too so it could be very chalky.
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For the 4th spot in your super it looks like Dare Day or Bethlehem Road are ready to step into that slot or maybe even bust up the trifecta, so don’t overlook those two. Dare Day at 15-1 is a nice price. Most importantly from this race we’ll see who shaping up for the Travers this year.
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There are two other stakes races on the card right before the Derby, and interestingly, the two top ML choices in each are also 1 and 2 in LP in the Grid, in that order. It is quite possible that their oddsmaker is using the Grid but I don’t know who it is. So far those races look chalky too.
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But never fear, there are 10 races on the card, and not every race will go according to the book. There will be some good value plays in there somewhere if you look for them in the Grid.
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Click here for free Thistledown Saturday Grid
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Of course, if you’re a member, you would be getting 10 other Grids today as well.

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