Weekend Winners Club

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Friday, August 23, 2019. It’s that time of year again: Travers Weekend! That’s right, Saratoga has 6 stakes races today in preparation for the always highly anticipated Travers day tomorrow, which will have 7 stakes races on the card, all but one of which are Grade 1 events.
* Update 4pm Sat: Dirt track seems to be favoring late runners, so beware every time it’s said “not much speed” it could still go to the LP and closers.
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The Travers, aka MidSummer Derby, of course is the highlight race worth $1.25 million but there will be over $5 million in purses available throughout the race card. We’ll start at the top with the Travers and work backwards a bit.
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Tacitus is the deserving favorite, the most consistent horse in the 3yo division not named Maximum Security. Tacitus has good tactical speed and followed up his 4th in the Derby with 2nd in the Belmont and Dandy and has the Grid’s 3rd best LP.
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Code of Honor could be the 2nd choice and edged out Tacitus in the Derby and since then notched a Dwyer win against marginal competition. He has the Grid’s top LP and would like a fast pace up front.
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Tax lost a close one to Tacitus in the Wood, then had a horrid Derby, came back to lose again to Tacitus in the Belmont, then finally turned the tables on him in the Dandy last out, holding on for dear life by less than a length to the tremendous late charge.
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Mucho Gusto will also be single digit odds and was last out 2nd in the Haskell. He has 2nd best EP.
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Owendale has the 2nd best LP in the Grid and has been very solid recently, following up his Lexington win with 3rd in the Preakness and an Ohio Derby win. That does it for the single digit competitors.
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Highest Honors and Looking at Bikinis are entered by Chad Brown and both are 10-1 morning line. Highest Honors is better after winning his last 2 including the Curlin stakes here, 6.5 lengths ahead of the stablemate, who does have highest EP but doesn’t look like a great 10f fit.
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Endorsed is the long shot I like the best, with 2nd best EP in the Grid. He lost the stretch duel with Highest Honors last out but without much speed in this field he could hold on this time. And 15-1 is a great price.
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There could be some good payouts here depending on how it plays out, but on paper so far I like it: Mucho Gusto, Endorsed, Tacitus, Highest Honors, Tax, and Scars are Cool (super long shot). If Code of Honor and Owendale don’t hit then it will pay really well, however given that they’re top 2 LP and combine Tacitus with them, to form the lowest paying trifecta in Travers history.
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Sword Dancer G1:
Ya Primo shipped from some other hemisphere in time to run 2nd in the Bowling Green G2 here a month ago, closing hard at the end but falling ½ length short of the victory for Chad Brown. He has the top LP in the Grid, and should be the favorite, but for now…
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Annals of Time is the morning line favorite for Chad Brown, after running 1st and 2nd in his 2 OCM’s this year, 1st in an OCM last year, and winning a G1 to close out 2016. That’s right, he’s raced 3 times since 2016, and appears to be doing very well this year.
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Channel Cat got the win in the Bowling Green, going gate to wire under an apparently comfortable pace for Todd Pletcher, and is at 5-1 morning line. Given that this race is almost devoid of speed, he could do it again.
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Channel Maker at 3-1, not to be confused with Channel Cat, was 4th in the Bowling Green but only a length back, also trying to close on the front runner but running out of room.
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Sadler’s Joy is the last single digit horse, another late runner who finished 1.25 back in the Bowling Green. As aforementioned, this race has almost no speed in it, so late closers beware.
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The best long shot on the board by far, and with a good shot, is Proven Reserves in his first turf start. Good early speed, good PF’s overall, and a 30-1 morning line.
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The best bet will be some kind of mix with all 3 Chad horses and 2 Channel horses. Maybe just box those 5 is the answer.
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Ballerina G1
The 5 filly and mare field after scratches doesn’t make it a great betting race, and Special Relativity’s odds will definitely come down from ML and she would win if she runs her last race back. Unless Come Dancing runs her last 7f race which was the Distaff win 3 back, in which case chalk. Even Dawn the Destroyer would have a good chance if she runs the form she opened the year with. Just wheel all at the bottom of a cheap tri and try to catch those long shots.
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H Allen Jerkens G1
Shancelot 1-2 is the obvious horse to beat. He’s 3 for 3 and last seen winning the Amsterdam G2 here by 12 lengths 4 weeks ago. An extra ½ f isn’t going to kill him, especially with the lack of much other speed. He’s #1 across the board except 1 point short of top LP.
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Borracho 8-1 ML has the top LP and represents the primary challenge to the favorite but even if he runs his best race, Shancelot will have to put in his worst career race.
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Call Paul at 15-1 is the only other front running type and will likely challenge the favorite for the lead early, and due to lack of many others up front, could hold on for a piece.
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Hog Creek Hustle returned to sprint in glorious fashion, last out beating 10 others in the Stephens G1 at this same distance at Belmont. Nitrous finished 2nd in that race by only ¼ length, and Mind Control was a few lengthsback, and needs to regain his Bay Shore form.
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Because of Shancelot, it’s not a great betting race, but I would do something like Shancelot on top of Barracho, Hog Creek Hustle, and Call Paul, with the others I mentioned at the bottom of super.
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Ballston Spa G2

Secret Message is the ML favorite, but Fifty Five is actually the top late runner with highest LP. Long shot Hogan’s Holiday actually has 2nd best LP, and 3rd is a tie with Secret Message and early runner Significant Form. But alas there’s not much speed in this race.
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Starship Jubilee could wind up as the favorite and is my pick to win, after running midpack she’ll tell the closers catch me if you can. Conquest Hardcandy is my best long shot to hit the board, with top EP she’ll be out near the front and hold on for a piece of the action, and might even win. Good betting race.
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Personal Ensign G1

You have to like top LP in a 9f race right? Especially when it’s an early runner. The top 3 LP’s here in order, all within 2 points of each other: Golden Award, Midnight Bisous, and Elate. A mid longshot and 2 favorites. 4th LP is midpack presser Wow Cat. I’ll probably put them in that order, and give She’s a Julie a chance to hit the board at the bottom since there’s not much speed as usual.

We’ll break down some of the other races on this page a little later on, so stay tuned. To see our fall specials on the Grid, including the 10 day trial, click here.

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