Weekend Winners Club

..
December 12, 2019. The first 2020 Kentucky Derby Double Dirty Dozen and One is finally here. It takes time to get things right, but we have a legacy to uphold here, like getting most of the top 5 Derby finishers making the top 10 in December.
.

KENTUCKY DERBY CENTRAL.

.
Of course this will change as we go along, but this is how we see it now. The picture above is worth a Thousand Words, as we can see Baffert’s now #1 steed edging out Annea D’Or who tried to win the BC Juvenile in similar fashion. Full write-up below the table.
.

2020 Kentucky Derby Double Dozen December 12, 2019

Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Line	Last	Race Out
1	Thousand Words	Pioneerof the Nile	Bob Baffert	RAN	1st	Los Al Futurity G2 Dec.7
2	Anneau d'Or	Medaglia d'Oro	Blaine Wright	ND	2nd	Los Al Futurity G2 Dec.7
3	Storm the Court	Court Vision	Peter Eurton	RAN	1st	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.1
4	Silver Prospector	War Front	Steve Asmussen	ND	1st	KY Jockey Club G2 Nov.30
5	Maxfield	Street Sense	Brendan Walsh	RAN	1st	Breeders' Fut G1 Oct.5
6	Independence Hall	Constitution	Michael Trombetta	API	1st	Nashua G3 Nov.3
7	Finnick the Fierce	Dialed In	Hernandez Rey	API	2nd	KY Jockey Club G2 Nov.30
8	Tiz the Law	Constitution	Barclay Tagg	API	3rd	KY Jockey Club G2 Nov.30
9	Ajaaweed	Curlin	Kiaran McLaughlin	RAN	2nd	Remsen G2 Dec.7
10	Wrecking Crew	Sky Kingdom	Peter Miller	RAN	4th	Los Al Futurity G2 Dec.7
11	Scabbard	More Than Ready	Eddie Kenneally	TTO	4th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.1
12	Gouverneur Morris	Constitution	Todd Pletcher	API	2nd	Breeders' Fut G1 Oct.5
13	Green Light Go	Hard Spun	James Jerkens	ND	2nd	Champagne G1 Oct.5
14	American Theorem	American Pharoah	George Papaprodromou	RAN	2nd	Amer.Pharoah G1 Sep.27
15	Authentic	Into Mischief	Bob Baffert	SCT	1st	MSW52k at DMR Nov.9
16	Eight Rings	Empire Maker	Bob Baffert	RAN	6th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.1
17	Basin	Liam's Map	Steve Asmussen	RAN	1st	Hopeful G3 Sep.2
18	High Velocity	Quality Road	Bob Baffert	RAN	3rd	Los Al Futurity G2 Dec.7
19	South Bend	Algorithms	Stanley Hough	RAN	1st	Street Sense 120k Oct.27
20	Dennis' Moment	Tiznow	Dale Romans	INR	8th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.1
21	Honor A.P.	Honor Code	John Shirreffs	API	1st	MSW 50k at SA Oct.13
22	Shotski	Blame	Jeremiah O'Dwyer	TTO	1st	Remsen G2 Dec.7
23	Chase Tracker	Verrazano	Todd Pletcher	TTO	3rd	Remsen G2 Dec.7
24	Chapalu	Flatter	Arnaud Delacour	API	1st	Grey G3 Oct.27
25	Enforceable	Tapit	Mark Casse	API	4th	KY Jockey Club G2 Nov.30

.
There are a lot of recent juvenile winners, and the BC Juvenile was a complete surprise for most people, with the top 3 finishers at 45-1, 28-1, and 39-1. Along with that, the top 2 favorites in the BCJ finished last and 3rd to last. So how can you sort it all out? Don’t worry, that’s what the experts are here for.
.
Derby Dozen Top 12
.
1. Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile, Bob Baffert): Top notch sire and trainer. Not just because he won the Los Alamitos Futurity as expected; he was on the radar beforehand (much as Authentic is now). Los Al Futurity winners have a solid Kentucky Derby record, dating back to before Baffert’s Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet. AP Indy also won this race, along with Point Given, Lion Heart, PIONEEROF THE NILE, and Lookin at Lucky. Proven trainer and sire, great performance, and beat the BCJ runner up last out.
.
2. Anneau D’Or (Medaglia D’oro, Blaine Wright): Sire may have only finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby, and was also nosed in the Belmont and became almost unbeatable as a 4yo. The trainer may not ring many bells, but with a great horse he doesn’t need to. A strong closing second in both the BCJ and Los Al Fut, he fell short by a nose in each. He may just need another furlong or so to correct that issue.
.
3. Storm the Court (Court Vision, Peter Eurton): Alas we get to the BC Juvenile winner, who certainly turned in the best performance of his short career, surprising bettors and me with a 45-1 win. Court Vision was more effective on turf but did place well in some graded stakes on dirt. Because of his inconsistency so far, we can’t rank him #1, but the BCJ performance puts him on the map. Eurton is not a household name but is a solid veteran trainer.
.
4. Silver Prospector (War Front, Steve Asmussen): War Front is normally thought of as a turf sire, but has also had some capable dirt winners. The Kentucky Jockey Club G2 is probably the most indicative race of Kentucky Derby possibilities to date, unlike the BCJ at Santa Anita, a track which can play vastly different to Churchill Downs. Despite a putridly slow pace, Silver Prospector passed 5 horses in the stretch for the win. That’s a great closing move for Steve, who also trained the great Curlin and is always dangerous.
.
5. Maxfield (Street Sense, Brendan Walsh): Street Sense was one of the rare colts who won both the BC Juvenile and KY Derby, both at Churchill Downs that season. Maxfield appears to have inherited the same great closing ability, going from 9th to first to win the G1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. He skipped the Breeders’ Cup and will likely be very fresh for his next race.
.
6. Independence Hall (Constitution, Trombetta): The sire is not a household name, but did win some key graded stakes races and his crops are doing very well on the track so far. I.Hall won the Nashua G3 by 12 lengths after chasing a very legit 45.55 pace set by a horse that faded to 7th. Clearly, nobody in that race was in his league at the time, which will likely change next time out, but he will be favored and could probably win with a lesser performance.
.
7. Finnick the Fierce (Dialed In, Rey Hernandez): Dialed in was favored in the Derby and didn’t win it, however proved his worth as a top race horse and sire. The trainer is relatively unknown for most, but could be capable of great things. Coming from 7th of 8, he came less than a length short of winning the KYJC G2 at 87-1, right behind Silver Prospector. Such a closing move behind a slow pace has to be contemplated as a top late runner.
.
8. Tiz the Law (Constitution, Barclag Tagg): Great young sire, good veteran trainer who is best known for his work with Funny Cide. After winning the Champagne G1 in October, Tiz the Law also stayed east coast for the KYJC G2 in which he ran around in 3rd and held 3rd, just a length behind the winner. It can’t be said he fell flat at all, but it also may not have been his best race.
.
9. Ajaweed (Curlin, Kirian McLaughlin): Curlin has been a top 5 sire since he retired to stud, McLaughlin a top trainer for decades. Not awesome in the Breeders Futurity, he did close well for 4th. Of note was his Remsen performance, passing 5 rivals to finish 2nd behind a horridly slow pace set by Shotski, the lucky pace setter who barely held on the late charge by Ajaweed.
.
10. Wrecking Crew (Sky Kingdom, Peter Miller): Wrecking Crew is the first winner from Sky Kingdom, but his pedigree can’t be doubted too much since his grandsire was the great Empire Maker. Peter Miller has been around the track a few times, and showed it with a 3rd place finish in the BC Juvenile. W. Crew was eased off in the Los Al Fut, but I always forgive a horse for 1 bad race. Real Quiet comes to mind as fading to 4th in the SA Derby before his KY Derby win.
.
11. Scabbard (More Than Ready, Eddie Kenneally): MTR is a stalwart triple crown sire who proved his worth on the track, and Eddie is a solid veteran trainer. Scabbard was my top pick in the BCJ and finished 4th behind the 3 long shots, of which Wrecking Crew was my 3rd choice and long shot special. Scabbard also finished 2nd in the Iroquois G3 at Churchill in September.
.
12. Governeur Morris (Constitution, Todd Pletcher): Constitution would have been a good sire to bet on for Derby futures. Pletcher’s record speaks for itself. This one finished 2nd as the favorite in the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland and has taken time off since then. He got passed by only Maxfield who I would have ranked #1 after that race but needs to race again to be ranked higher than this.
.
Get the Kentucky Derby Grid or the Grid for every major track, every race day.

Trackback URI | Comments RSS