Weekend Winners Club

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February 7, 2020.  This isn’t the first Double Dozen for Kentucky Derby 2020, but it is the first of the year.  There wasn’t much in the way of official Derby Prep Races in January, in fact only 4 total.  But there were also other assorted 3yo stakes such as the Swale, Mucho Macho Man, Pasco, etc, that had to be, and thus were, taken into account.

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Kentucky Derby Central

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Most people don’t understand how difficult it is to do a list like this at this time of year, trying to factor in a lot of unofficial races and taking into account that some on the list either haven’t run this year, or haven’t run a stakes race yet, or both.  But no worries, that’s why we the experts are here, and thus you can digest the info.

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As luck would have it for you, we’re right on time for Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 2 which opens today and runs thru Sunday, so you can use this information to your advantage.  Congrats if you got Authentic at 50-1 in Pool 1. We had him at #15 in December before he ran a stakes race.  He opens at 15-1 today.  Without further ado, here’s the top 25.  Below that is the narrative for the top 12 only.

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Kentucky Derby Top 25, Feb.7, 2020p

Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Line	Last	Race Out
1	Thousand Words	Pioneerof the Nile	Bob Baffert	RAN	1st	Bob Lewis G3 Feb.1
2	Anneau d'Or	Medaglia d'Oro	Blaine Wright	ND	2nd	Los Al Futurity G2 Dec.7
3	Authentic	Into Mischief	Bob Baffert	SCT	1st	Sham G3 Jan.4
4	Tiz the Law	Constitution	Barclay Tagg	API	1st	Holy Bull G3 Feb.1
5	Maxfield	Street Sense	Brendan Walsh	RAN	1st	Breeders' Fut G1 Oct.5
6	Storm the Court	Court Vision	Peter Eurton	RAN	1st	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.1
7	Independence Hall	Constitution	Michael Trombetta	API	1st	Jerome 150k Jan.1
8	Ajaaweed	Curlin	Kiaran McLaughlin	RAN	2nd	Remsen G2 Dec.7
9	Enforceable	Tapit	Mark Casse	API	1st	Lecomte G3 Jan.18
10	Max Player	Honor Code	Linda Rice	API	1st	Withers G3 Feb.1
11	Silver Prospector	War Front	Steve Asmussen	ND	4th	Smarty Jones 150k Jan.24
12	Chance It	Currency Swap	Saffie Joseph	ND	1st	Mucho Macho Man Jan.4
13	Wrecking Crew	Sky Kingdom	Peter Miller	RAN	4th	Los Al Futurity G2 Dec.7
14	Gouverneur Morris	Constitution	Todd Pletcher	API	2nd	Breeders' Fut G1 Oct.5
15	Finnick the Fierce	Dialed In	Hernandez Rey	API	4th	Lecomte G3 Jan.18
16	Mischievous Alex	Into Mischief	John Servis	SCT	1st	Swale G3 Feb.1
17	American Theorem	American Pharoah	George Papaprodromou	RAN	2nd	Amer.Pharoah G1 Sep.27
18	Silver State	Hard Spun	Steve Asmussen	ND	2nd	Lecomte G3 Jan.18
19	Ete Indien	Summer Front	Patrick Biancone	ND	2nd	Holy Bull G3 Feb.1
20	Royal Act	American Pharoah	Peter Eurton	RAN	2nd	Bob Lewis G3 Feb.1
21	Gold Street	Street Boss	Steve Asmussen	RAN	1st	Smarty Jones 150k Jan.24
22	Basin	Liam's Map	Steve Asmussen	RAN	1st	Hopeful G3 Sep.2
23	Premier Star	Tapiture	Jorge Navarro	API	1st	OC75-n1x 7f Jan.15
24	Dennis' Moment	Tiznow	Dale Romans	INR	8th	BC Juvenile G1 Nov.1
25	Nadal	Blame	Bob Baffert	TTO	1st	Mdn 55k 6.5f Jan.19

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Derby Dozen Top 12 Justification (Sire, Trainer):

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1- Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile, Bob Baffert):  Top notch sire and trainer. Followed up his Los Al Futurity G2 win with a Bob Lewis G3 win to begin February.    Los Al Fut winners have an excellent Kentucky Derby record, dating back to before Baffert’s Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet.   Proven trainer and sire, great performances, beat the BCJ runner up in Dec.

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2- Anneau D’Or (Medaglia D’oro, Blaine Wright):  Sire may have only finished 4^th in the Kentucky Derby, but was also nosed in the Belmont and became almost unbeatable as a 4yo.  The trainer may not ring many bells, but with a great horse he doesn’t need to.  A strong closing second in both the BCJ and Los Al Fut, he fell short by a nose in each. It looks like he just needs another furlong or so to correct that issue. Finished last year strong, yet to race this year.

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3- Authentic (Into Mischief, Bob Baffert):  As usual, Baffert has a couple in the top 5.  Authentic was at 15 last year after breaking maiden first out, then opened the year with a 7+ length win in the Sham G3, getting some attention from others besides us insiders. The Sham field was of questionable validity but he put them away with ease.  Into Mischief is becoming one of the great sires of the Storm Cat sireline.

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4- Tiz the Law (Constitution, Barclag Tagg):  Great young sire, good veteran trainer who is best known for his work with Funny Cide.  After winning the Champagne G1 in October, Tiz the Law also stayed east coast for the KYJCG2 in held 3^rd, just 1 length back.  He opened this year in style with a 3 length Holy Bull G3 win, earning him the first and only 3-digit Beyer figure of the year as well as the only 3 digit Grid PF so far. Also tied for top Grid LP so far.

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5- Maxfield (Street Sense, Brendan Walsh):  Street Sense was one of the rare colts who won both the BC Juvenile and KY Derby, both at Churchill Downs that year.  Maxfield appears to have inherited the same great closing ability, going from 9^th to first to win the G1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland.  He skipped the Breeders’ Cup out west and we eagerly await his 2020 debut.

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6- Storm the Court (Court Vision, Peter Eurton):  Alas we get to the BC Juvenile winner, who certainly turned in the best performance of his short career, surprising bettors and me with a 45-1 win.  Court Vision was more effective on turf but did place well in some graded stakes on dirt.  Because of his inconsistency so far, we can’t rank him #1, but the BCJ performance puts him on the map.  Eurton is a solid veteran trainer but not a household name. Next up:  San Vicente G2 Feb.9.

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7- Independence Hall (Constitution, Trombetta):  The sire is not a household name, but did win some key graded stakes races and his crops are doing very well on the track so far.  I.Hall got on the map with a 12 length Nashua G3 in November, and proved it was no fluke with a 4 length Jerome Stakes win to begin January, marking his smallest win margin in his 3 career races.  Solid veteran trainer and great young sire who’s making a big impact on 3yo’s this year.  Tied for top LP in the Grid. Next up:  Sam F. Davis G3 Feb.8.

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8- Ajaweed (Curlin, Kirian McLaughlin):  Curlin has been a top 5 sire since he retired to stud, McLaughlin a top trainer for decades.  Not awesome in the Breeders Futurity, he did close well for 4^th.  He was last seen racing in the Remsen G2 in Dec., passing 5 rivals to finish 2^nd behind a horridly slow pace set by Shotski, the lucky pace setter who barely held off the late charge.  If he ever gets a fast pace up front, watch out for a great late maneuver.  Next up:  Sam F. Davis G3 Feb.8.

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9- Enforceable (Tapit, Mark Casse):  One of the best Triple Crown sires of the decade, and a trainer who won his first 2 TC races last year.  This Tapit colt didn’t impress much in his first 6 career races last year, all behind mostly absurdly slow paces where his closing moves fell short. That all changed in the Lecomte G3 on Jan.18, where the pace was good enough for him to move from 11^th to 1^st starting along the back stretch with a wide trip all the way around.

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10- Max Player (Honor Code, Linda Rice):  Great AP Indy sire and solid veteran trainer who hasn’t done much on the TC scene, yet.  Previously a blip on the radar, Max Player burst onto the scene with a 3+ length Withers G3 win on Feb.1.  Not a top name prep race, but he did close from behind well as Shotski set another horridly slow pace, challenged only by a couple of marginal speeders who finished 6^th and last.

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11- Silver Prospector (War Front, Steve Asmussen):  War Front is normally thought of as a turf sire, but has also had some capable dirt winners.  Trainer coached the great racer and sire named Curlin. Despite a putridly slow pace, Silver Prospector passed 5 horses in the stretch to win the KYJC G2.  Alas, he couldn’t repeat last out in the Smarty Jones, in which I’m not buying too much into the winner’s Beyer figure.  Nobody can convince me that 49 seconds is a legit half mile pace in a mile race.  He will thrive with a faster pace and longer race.

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12- Chance It (Currency Swap, Saffie Joseph):  Not household sire or trainer names outside of Florida, where horsemen certainly know who Saffie is. His first race of the year was also his first outside of state restricted company, and he did just as well as in 5 races last year, 3 wins by a combined 20 lengths, including 2 stakes wins, and 2 losses by less than a length.  I have no reason to doubt the Dixie Union sireline and this horse has excelled under various paces.  He also now has the top Power rating in the Grid, but we’re still awaiting a graded race.

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There are a few others that I wanted to include in the top 12, but there just wasn’t room for them as it’s very competitive right now.  You can see them listed in the rest of the top 25 table above.

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Get the Grid daily or the Kentucky Derby Grid here.

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