Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, Feb.29, 2020.  Gulfstream Park will host 10 total stakes races, including 3 Grade 2 events and 6 Grade 3 races. The Fountain of Youth for 3yo’s aiming for the Kentucky Derby is the headline race. This will follow 2 stakes races for 3yo’s and 2 for 3yo fillies among the other stakes. The Hutcheson will appear after being postponed last weekend.

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Fountain of Youth G2, race 14, 8.5f 3yo, 6pm: 

A key Kentucky Derby prep race worth 50-20-10-5 points to the top 4 finishers, it is only the 3^rd 50 point race of the season. 

The ML favorite is Dennis’ Moment, in his 2020 debut after a disastrous Breeders Cup Juvenile in November in which he was the heavy favorite but stumbled badly at the start.  Before that he won the Iroquois G3 and his maiden.

Second ML choice Chance It could well wind up the post time favorite after making the most of his first race in open company, winning the Mucho Macho Man here in January. Prior to that he had 2 stakes wins and a 2^nd in state restricted races.  4 wins and 2 losses by less than a length.

3^rd choice As Seen on TV got in an epic stretch duel with Chance It in the MMM but was headed out for the win. It was his first run at a mile but he also has a stakes win along with another stakes 2^nd.

4^th choice Ete Indien has the numbers to compete with any of them.  He tried to go gate to wire in the Holy Bull G3 here at the beginning of the month, but got caught by Tiz the Law, ranked 4^th in our last Derby Double Dozen after setting a wicked pace. 

Those are the main contenders and they’ll be hard to beat by others in the 12 horse field, but because of plenty of early speed runners, at least on paper, we always look for some good LP.

Country Grammer, listed at 15-1 ML, has the top LP distinction, due to his last effort out on 9f on Aqueduct, breaking his maiden in his 2^nd lifetime race and 1^st on dirt.  He chased what appeared to be a ridiculously slow pace and drew off in the end.  He should be able to work that same closing move vs a rapid contested pace, and improve on his only dirt PF significantly, and therefore is your long shot special. 

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Stay tuned for further analysis of the other stakes races, and grab the Grid below to start your own analysis.

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Scratches processed.

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Hutcheson Stakes, Race 3, 6f 3yo, 12:28 pm.

This one, which was originally scheduled a week ago, kicks off the stakes action today.  The short field of 6 after the scratch of Scarto doesn’t leave a lot of options.  It should be quite chalky, but it’s not unreasonable to think King Snake make noise in his 2020 debut. He showed a lot of speed in his first and only outing at sprint, narrowly losing to Peruvian boy, but that was 7 months ago and he hasn’t run in 6 months.  He does seem like the only reasonable long shot.

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Palm Beach G3, 8.5f turf, 3yo, 1pm:

Some solid single digit ML runners for sure, but some great long shots. Life on Top 12-1 has the highest turf PF, achieved last out with a great closing win from 7^th in his first and only turf race.  Sassy but Smart 15-1 got his maiden win in his 3^rd try and first route last out as his speed held up well at a mile.

Vitalogy has the best LP and Power rankings and it’s hard to believe that his 9-2 ML will hold up and probably won’t go at more than 3-1. Even though he hasn’t won a stakes race, he has the best stakes record finishing in the money in all 3 graded races.

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R5 1:27ET 8f T HoneyFox-G3 4 UP FM

Again, the single digit fillies have merit, but this is a turf mile so we always look for good LP.  It’s hard to believe Miss Munnings is listed at 8-1ML with the highest LP by far, especially since she’s not a rear end plodder, but the oddsmakers don’t have the Grid. There’s a bunch of 5 that are close in LP after that, including Getmotherarose, who closed well and finished only 2 lengths behind Atomic Blonde 9-2 ML in their last stakes race, and yet she’s listed at 15-1. 

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R7 2:27ET 9.5f T VeryOne-G3 4 UP FM

The scenario in this turf route is a bit different.  The top LP and Power racer is also the ML favorite. However, the race is almost devoid of speed, with no true front runners, only 3 of 12 have ever had the lead at 1^st call, and 3 with Quirin points above 3. 1 such horse is Romantic Pursuit, at 6-1 ML an EP6 with 2^nd LP.  Queen of Time 12-1 also runs early with estimated QP of 5 or 6 and has a solid stakes record on her former continent. Aside from all that, if Touriga 8-1 runs 2 races back, she’ll win easily.

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R9 3:28ET 8.5f T Hcmbride-G3 3 YO F

Back to the previous scenario.  Again, plenty of early speed and some solid chalky runners, but the top LP/stam runner is at 10-1 ML and is the only S type and only filly with 0 QP.  I would actually be somewhat stunned if Stunning Sky doesn’t win, last to first style of course.

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R10 3:59ET 8f D DvonaDal-G2 3 YO F

Yes the favorite Spice is Nice looked great in winning her debut by 12, but there are 8 others. Tonalist’s Shape looked equally impressive in her stakes mile win, but won’t have a good price either.  My eyes almost popped out of my head when I saw Dream Marie listed at 15-1.  She has 3 wins in a row after switching to dirt. Chart at 10-1 won her only race quite easily and should extend well at a mile.

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R11 4:30ET 8f T CanTuf-G3 4 UP 

Lots of options in this 12 horse field and seemingly enough speed for late runners to prosper, but it will be tough to beat Sombeyay. Top LP and sole S0 Hembree is 5-1 and will likely go off as virtual lukewarm co favorite. Caribou Club at 6-1 is tied for 2^nd in LP with English Bee 15-1, and there are a slew not far behind in LP points. Mr. Dumas 12-1 won a G3 late last year and could benefit changing to Maker.

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R12 5:01ET 8f D GPMile-G2 4 UP 

Good options available here as well.  4 early frontrunners and 4 later runners within 2 LP points of each other. Top LP of 99 goes to Expert at 8-1ML, who also has very competitive PF’s.  Just 1 point behind are Haikal, an S2 at 10-1 and Hog Creek Hustle at 12-1, and a point behind them is Do Share at 15-1.  That’s an LP box that would pay beaucoup bucks.

True Timber at 15-1 has a good set of PF’s at this distance.

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R13 5:32ET 11f T MDiarmd-G2 4 UP 

It’s a long race, but regardless of distance, there is a reason for the saying “pace makes the race.” Back to the Very One scenario in which the top LP and Power runner is also the favorite. But there are only 2 early runners, and 1 or both of them will likely lead a significant percentage of the way. Channel Maker 8-1 and A Thread of Blue 9-2 could hold on for the win. Only 1 other has led one of their past 10 races before entering the stretch, Spooky Channel 20-1 coming off his first graded stakes win and half brother to Channel Maker who is a multiple G1 winner.

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That brings us back full circle to the Fountain of Youth, and as demonstrated above, there is at least one good long shot in every stakes race.  It’s up to you to fill in the blanks in the MSW’s, but those will likely be filled in by Pletcher and Chad Brown.   

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As usual, you can get the Grid for all the major tracks and races here.

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