Loading ...Mar 03 2020
Gulfstream Feb.29 Stakes Recap – By the Numbers (Fractions)
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Tuesday, March 3, 2020. Yesterday we looked at the odds of all the winners and our Grid long shot specials who won and hit the board on the huge stakes day of February 29 at Gulfstream Park. Today we look at the fractions of all the dirt races on the day, with a close look at the dirt races for 3yos that could be headed to the Kentucky Derby.
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We’ve summed up the fractions of the dirt races in a concise table below. The owners of each fraction are listed below each figure of the race. We expected the top 2, 4, and 6f fractions to be registered by the 3yos in the Hutcheson Stakes. But what happened? Take a look…
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That is not what happened at all. The speedy 3yo I’ll Fight Dempsey would have blew them away in his debut for Todd Pletcher, registering the best 2f 4f 6f fractions among 3yo’s for the day. But those weren’t the best 4f and 6f times of the day. Those belonged to the older horses in the GP Mile G2.
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Now going in we did expect the GP Milers to get the best mile time of the day and probably the best 6f time, which they did both with Mr. Freeze. But Bodexpress also got the best ½ mile of the day of 45.32, also beating all the 3yo sprinters.
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We also expected the talented Fountain of Youth G2 field to get the best mile time of the 3 races >= 8f for 3yos. And they did, but Ete Indien also delivered the fastest opening fraction of the day among all 5 of the mile+ races on the day, en route to his impressive gate to wire victory.
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Tonalist’s Shape also led every step of the way in the Davona Dale G2, and got the 2nd best 6f route fraction of the day for 3yo’s by 4/100 of a second over Ete Indien. It was the only filly dirt race of the day so she had no competition out of this field.
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Now that we’ve done the analysis, let’s hand out some awards for the top contenders:
Most Impressive 3yo: Ete Indien (Summer Front, Patrick Biancone)
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Best 3yo filly: Tonalist’s Shape (Tonalist, Saffie Joseph)
Fastest 3yo: I’ll Fight Dempsey (Into Mischief, Todd Pletcher)
Best 3yo closer: With Verve (Kantharos, Larry Bates)
Best horse overall: Mr. Freeze (To Honor and Serve, Dale Romans)
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Going forward here’s what we can expect. Ete Indien will make his first appearance in the Kentucky Derby Futures Pool, with pool 3 opening this weekend, but his odds won’t be great. I’ll Fight Dempsey could start pointing towards the Triple Crown Trail.
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Stay tuned for our next Kentucky Derby Double Dozen to be released this week in time for Pool 3, which will include runners for 3 big Kentucky Derby Preps on Saturday.
