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Precap of This Weeks’ Big 3yo races: San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, and Gotham Stakes. Grid PP’s
Precap of This Weeks’ Big 3yo races: San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, and Gotham Stakes. Grid PP’s
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Saturday, March 7, 2020. The Big 3 Derby Prep races of early March will be run on Saturday, with Aqueduct hosting the Gotham Stakes G3, the Tampa Bay Derby G2 at Tampa Bay Downs, and the San Felipe G2 at Santa Anita. We coined the term Precap for purposes just such as this.
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Let’s take a quick look at the 3yo Derby Prep races which I know our audience here is particularly interested in. There are big stakes racing cards at both Santa Anita, including the Big Cap G1, Aqueduct, and Tampa Bay Downs, but for the purposes of this article we’ll just look at the 3 Derby preps.
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Gotham Stakes G3 8f at Aqueduct.
This is probably the least significant 50 point Derby prep to date, and the point system is only a few years old. The last Gotham champion to win the Kentucky Derby was Secretariat in 1973, and further, over 90% of winners since then either didn’t finish on the board in the Derby or even run in it.
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This year, the Gotham is significant for not having any of the top Kentucky Derby contenders in the field. No entries from Futures Pool 3, and none from the Derby Double Dozen. In fact, there are only 3 stakes winners in the field of 11, and 5 of them are fresh off breaking their maiden last out.
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The favorite will understandably be Mischievous Alex, who handily won each of his last 2 races, both 7f stakes, but had some difficulty holding speed in his prior 2 races at a mile, 1 of which was on turf. In his current form it looks like his speed should hold up well for a piece of the pie at 8f.
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Second morning line choice Untitled is also uncertain at this distance. He lost to Alex by 7 in the Swale G3 at 7f, but came back for 2nd in a mile OCM at Tampa. Repeating his debut 11 length win at 6f doesn’t seem likely at 8f.
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3rd ML choice Attachment Rate at 9-2 is the best bet yet. His performances have gone up significantly in each of his starts, increasing in distance, culminating with a 6 length win and the 2nd best dirt PF on the field, accomplished on a muddy maiden win last out at a mile. He has the top LP in the Grid.
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War Stopper 5-1 has a similar streak of improvement in his 4 races, the last 2 on dirt which he has taken to quite well. Last out he thrived on the lead for the first time, winning from gate to wire at a mile at Aqueduct, after lollygagging early in his previous 3 races.
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Montauk Traffic at 6-1 ML also continues to improve, winning his last 2 at 7f at Aqueduct, including a 100k stakes race in come from behind fashion. He has 2nd best LP in the Grid to date.
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Sixto 8-1 broke maiden first out at 6f here at Aqueduct with an impressive PF, the same as that of Mischievous Alex in his debut. He could definitely improve with distance and his 2nd time out. The top PF overall of any in the field was Untitled in his 6f debut.
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There are a couple others worth mentioning here. Most intriguing is Flap Jack, 30-1 in his 4th career start. Last out he broke maiden in a 7f stakes on polytrack, and supposedly didn’t like the surface in his prior 2 on dirt and turf. It’s possible he was just too green and could improve again here.
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First Deputy, also 30-1, failed miserably in his only mile race, finishing 11 back at Aqueduct after trying to chase a brutal pace. But he’s looked good in his last 2 races, both 6f wins at Aqueduct, the last one going away by 5 lengths.
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Most of these Gotham contenders haven’t been turning Kentucky Derby heads so far, but the winner will likely be viewed by most as a major contender. That’s a lot of time spent breaking down the least meaningful race, but it has a lot of possibilities and therefore a good betting race.
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Tampa Bay Derby G2, 8.5f, TB Downs
Back over to Tampa Bay, which had record high temperatures of 90 on Thursday, it will be cooling off overnight and perhaps reach highs in the mid 60s on Saturday, with lots of sunniness. The Derby day card includes the Florida Oaks G3 and some other graded stakes, and some MSW’s for 3yo’s.
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Naturally the morning line favorite is Sole Volante at 2-1, who got a nice pace to run at for his closing move winning the Sam Davis G3 here a month ago. Chance it at 5-2 could well be the post time favorite, with 4 wins (3 stakes) and 2 close runner up finishes. Last out in January, he won his first contest in open company at Gulfstream.
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The only other with single digit odds is Market Analysis at 8-1 ML, who won his debut at 7f at Gulfstream in Jan, and is coached by Pletcher, ridden by JRV.
Spa City and Unrighteous could be next up after they achieved big PF’s for running 1-2 in a maiden at Gulfstream a month ago. Unrighteous only finished 1 back after closing on the winner from 5th, so it’s unclear why his price is twice that of Spa City.
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Unrighteous also has top LP, largely due to that effort. Chance It had the same single race LP a couple races back, and the only horse with a higher single race LP was Sole Volante in the Davis. Chance It is tied for 2nd best aggregate LP with Texas Swing, but again that is mostly due to his gate to wire win last out. Regardless, Texas Swing at 12-1 has to be considered a live long shot.
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Because of the amount of speed on paper in this race, it sets up best for Sole Volante and Unrighteous, who I seriously doubt will go off at anywhere near 20-1. Chance It and Market Analysis will likely be forwardly placed but have enough grit to hit the board.
Letmeno at 12-1 ML has been waiting for a fast pace to run at. The only time in his 4 starts he got one, he ran big at 7f. The last 2 out at a mile plus he ran well but there was no pace. He has consistent strong LP and should hit the board in this one.
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San Felipe G2, 8.5f Santa Anita
Back out west in sunny southern cal, 5 horses will line up to try and beat Baffer’s duo of Authentic and Thousand Words, both graded stakes winners with high Triple Crown hopes. John Shirreffs will try to beat them with Honor AP, who hasn’t raced since breaking maiden in October.
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Storm Court is the only other single digit ML entry. After winning the BC Juvenile here last year at 46-1, he was bit flat in this year’s debut, holding on to 4th in the San Vicente G2 at 7f. So he’s still really not proven at a mile plus.
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Wrecking Crew is the only real value play at 12-1. After his 3rd in the BCJ, he was eased in the Los Al Futurity after running poorly. So he’s largely unproven at a mile or more as well. To be honest, the whole 7 horse field is unproven, and each could be considered a 1 race wonder at a mile plus.
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So you’re still reading, and wondering: where’s my free fucking grid? It’s right there in the link below.. We decided on Santa Anita because the Big Cap still has G1 status and there’s also the Kilroe Mile on turf, always entertaining, and don’t forget the San Carlos G2. But we gave you Grid stats for big races at 2 other tracks as well. You’re welcome.
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Get The Grid for all major tracks and races here. Great time to join with a 2 month plan, which would get you thru the Kentucky Derby, or the 3 month plan, getting you also the Preakness and Belmont Stakes! One time payment options available.
