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Weekend Winners Club

Mar 18 2020

Fairgrounds Sat.Mar.21: Huge Louisiana Derby G2 field; 8 stakes; $2.6 Million in Prize Money

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Wednesday, March 18, 2020.  Racing continues at the Fairgrounds in New Orleans this weekend with its biggest race day of the year.  8 stakes racing culminating in the $1 Million Grade 2 Louisiana Derby will have over 140 horses competing for $2.6 million in purses.

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You won’t be watching any live professional sports this spring.  But you can watch the Louisiana Derby and Sunland Derby this weekend, and next weekend the Florida Derby and UAE Derby.  The winners and some others from these races will be running in the Kentucky Derby later this year.

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There’s no reason to not get in on the three year old Derby action right now, especially since you have literally no other sports to watch.  But horse racing you can watch every day and every weekend.  Big 3yo action in April will continue with the Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, Santa Anita and Arkansas Derby.

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We’ve got the Saturday Fairgrounds Grid for you linked right below ,with all 12 races including the Louisiana Derby and FG Oaks, and you can click here to get the Grid for all major tracks and races across North America. Race breakdowns will appear below starting with the Derby.

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Louisiana Derby G2 9.5f, $1M, 3yo:

For the first time, this race will be held at 1 3/16 mile (9.5f) rather than the traditional 1 1/8 (9f) that it has been in the past. It’s unclear exactly why the race is not being held in two divisions, since there are more horses desiring to enter than the 16 it was capped off at, 2 of which are alternates.

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9 of the 16 raced in one of the two divisions of the Risen Star G2 (RSd1 and 2) last month and want to prove they were really the best from those fields. Notably missing is Mr. Monomoy, winner of the first and faster of the two divisions.  He’s off the KY Derby trail for now but could easily be back on it by September.

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Mr. Monomoy and Modernist became the first 50 point winners and Kentucky Derby entries, on Feb.15, 2020, each winning their respective Risen Star G2 divisions.

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Enforceable (7-2ML) was the runner up of RSd1 after a big closing move.  He’s the ML favorite here today should be the post favorite. Silver State (8-1) was held on for 3rd in that race after being passed by Enforceable.  Farmington Road (12-1, alt) closed from behind Enforceable but could not catch him or Silver State and wound up 4th.  Those are the 4 from RSd1 and have to be considered strongly.

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From RSd2 we have the winner Modernist (6-1) who held on after taking over a slow pace from NY Traffic (15-1) who held on for 3rd after also being passed by Major Fed (8-1) who closed from 5th to 2nd. Behind them was Mailman Money (15-1) who closed from 6th to 4th, Mr. Big News (20-1, alt) in 5th and Lynn’s Map (30-1) who closed from last to get 6th just 4 lengths back. Arguably all of these except the top 2 can say they had an excuse that the pace was too slow.  But it might be slow on Saturday too.

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Others worth noting are the speedy Wells Bayou (8-1) coming off of 2nd in the Southwest G3, Portos (8-1) 3rd in the Withers G3, and Royal Act (10-1) who shipped east after 2nd in the RB Lewis G3 behind Baffert’s Thousand Words. There are 3 coming off an OC50 that will have to do much better to make noise here, the best of which appears to be Chestertown (15-1).

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On paper there isn’t an inordinate amount of speed, but Wells Bayou and NY Traffic are almost guaranteed to go to the lead early.  Modernist won’t be far behind but has shown the ability to sit behind the pace when the going gets hot. A slew of others will be pressing the pace.

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And then you have the big closers, notably Enforceable with 2nd LP, but you wouldn’t guess who was 2nd in LP?  Lynn’s Map, who is dying to get a fast pace up front to run at for once.  Next in LP are Chestertown, Silver State, Major Fed and Farmington.

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It’s hard to tell right now exactly how it will play out now without scratches and seeing how the track plays. But there are some definitepossibilities of long shots, especially if the early speed shows up as advertised and the 9.5f helps the closers.

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Top picks in order of preference for exotics:

Enforceable 7-2

Major Fed 8-1

Lynn’s Map 30-1

Royal Act 10-1

Silver State 6-1

Farmington Road (alt) 12-1

Chestertown (15-1)

Wells Bayou (8-1)

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Fairgrounds Oaks G2 8.5f 3yo f:

The race before the Derby is a night and day difference.  A field of 6 and a legit favorite, so not many possibilities. The only one more than 5-1 ML with a chance is Stop Shoppin Tammy at 8-1, who has the speed but will need to continue to improve in her 3rd start.

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Get the Grid for all the big tracks and races here.

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