Loading ...Apr 18 2020
Oaklawn Sat. April 18: Apple Blossom G1, Count Fleet G3 Precap. Big Fields, Long Shot Specials
.
Saturday, April 18. Hot Springs, Arkansas remains the hot spot for horse racing this month as Oaklawn hosts 2 more graded stakes races. The featured Grade 1 Apple Blossom with a full field will follow 9 races including the Count Fleet G3. Altogether 11 races with almost 130 horses after morning scratches.
.
Let’s talk about the 2 stakes races. Grab the Oaklawn Grid here so you can follow along.
.
.
Apple Blossom G1 8.5f dirt 4up FM:
This year has a very competitive field of 14 including 10 graded stakes winners. None of them have run in this race before. There are only 3 single digit mares on the morning line, all at low odds. It’s hard to say which one will be favored at post time.
.
Meet the favorites:
Come Dancing (3-1 ML) is 2nd in Power and Stamina, in her 2020 debut after an embarrassing BC Filly and Mare Sprint performance to close out last year.
.
Ce Ce (7-2 ML) is putting it altogether nicely after 5 lifetime races, going 2 for 2 this year including a 3 length win in the Beholder Mile G1 last out. Top 5 across the board in the Grid.
.
Serengeti Empress (4-1) is tops in Speed and Power in the Grid, and used her front running style effectively last out winning the Azeri G2 at this track and distance in the sloppy going.
.
.
Of the 3, Ce Ce seems like the most likely winner, with a great pace pressing running style good for the occasion. The other 2 are both front runners that will have to contend with front runner Cookie Dough, also coming off a graded stakes win, this one in the slop at Gulfstream.
.
Meet the long shot specials:
Point of Honor (10-1 ML). Normally when a horse is double digits ML and has top LP and Stamina in the Grid, it goes off at around half that. 5-1 maybe not a bad price considering the top LP margin. Not an impressive debut this year at 7f, but the last time out chasing a fast pace, she won the Black Eyed Susan G2.  This is an automatic bet at anything 5-1 or over.
.
.
Lady Apple (15-1) Are you kidding me? One bad race in the slop last out in the Azeri doesn’t mean the horse doesn’t have a chance. Her previous slop race was also miserable. Before the Azeri, she beat Serengeti Empress and Street Band (15-1) in a Houston G3 race. There is no chance of slop today.
.
Queen Nekia (20-1) narrowly missed catching Cookie Dough in the Royal Delta G3 last out after hitting the gate at the start. She won the previous 2 and I’d like to see what she does with a fast pace up front and a good start and trip. 4th in Power, 2nd in LP.
.
Go Google Yourself (12-1) is tied for 2nd in LP and 3rd in Stamina, great for an EP7 running type. She doesn’t need the lead to win, proving that in winning 3 of her last 4 all graded races. Untested against anyone in this field but she’s ready for the test.
.
As usual you can get the Grid for all the major tracks, which right now number only 3, at this link. Keep in mind that these 3 tracks are each running as many competitors as 2 typical tracks every day, due to horses shipping in from closed tracks all over the country.
.
Count Fleet Grade 3 6f dirt 4up:
The competitive field of 11 includes 10 stakes winners that will kick off the late Pick 4 at about 5:15PM ET. The pace shape does not look terribly fast for a sprint, but with the top 4 early runners being E7, E6, EP6, and E6, it could get heated as 2 of them never win without the lead at 1C.
.
Meet the chalk:
Whitmore (5-2, P3) beat 4 others in this field last out in winning the Hot Springs Stakes here at Oaklawn, including Share the Upside, who got the better of him in the previous race, front running for the win. The Grid says he’s 1st in Power and top 3 across the board in other categories.
.
Bobby’s Wicked One (3-1, E6) is the only other horse in this field to have beaten Whitmore, almost a year ago in the Churchill Downs G1. Recently he’s 2 for 2, both stakes races at FG. He’s won 5 of his last 10 races, all when he led at 1st call, and lost the other 5, none of which he got the lead by 1C. Tied for 2nd in EP just one behind the leader in a 6 horse group that has EP between 94-96.
.
Hidden Scroll (4-1, E6) got back to his debut form, winning by 12 last out at 6f in only his second sprint race. Bill Mott was so sure he would be a two turn horse after his debut 14 length win at 8f, that he immediately entered him in the Fountain of Youth, where he was favored and lost by 3, then the Florida Derby, in which he was also favored and lost by 11. The last 2 1-turn races he has been much better. Top 3 or 4 in most categories.
.
Flagstaff (7-2, EP5) as his name suggests, is the west coast invader, is on an impressive roll with his last 4, all stakes races with 2 wins and 2 ITM finishes. The Grid has him 2nd in LP, 1st in Stamina, 2nd in Power. He rarely runs on the lead and prefers to stalk from the 2 or 3 spot and win in the stretch.
.
Of these 4, Whitmore and Flagstaff are the most likely to actually win. Bobby’s Wicked One, Hidden Scroll, and Share the Upside are likely to get in a speed duel up front since each of them basically needs the lead to win, so they are likely to be compromised.
.
Meet the long shot specials:
Hog Creek Hustle (15-1, S2) would be one of those who benefit if the pace gets heated up front. A good late runner, he comes up big every now and then. On the Kentucky Derby trail last year, he’s been running from 6-8f since a horrid Louisiana Derby. 7f looks like his most effective distance but he can win at 6.
.
Manny Wah (30-1, P2) was also on the Derby trail also last year before reverting to sprint. He was horrid last out and I don’t know the exact excuse, but his previous 3 showed great form with 2 neck losses and a valid effort in a G1 at 7f, likely not his best distance which is 6f. 30-1? That’s a Super Long Shot Special.
.
Mr. Jagermeister (15-1, EP6) is probably in peak form right now in his last 2 after some subpar races late last year. You can’t leave out the top EP horse in a 6f race, even with the possibility of a speed duel. He capitulated late to Whitmore last out attempting to steal it on the front end. He has the speed to win, but doesn’t need the lead to win.
.
Nitrous (20-1, S0) has top LP and 2nd in Stamina may not mean much in a 6f sprint, but it’s still top LP either way, and he has won at 6f before. Trouble is, he’s been beaten by Hog Creek Hustle in all 3 of their matches. But if the going gets hot, he’s a nice price to have in your tri or super.
.
R9 5:45ET 6f D OClm 50000n$y 4 UP FM.
The pace shape in this one does appear to be heated on paper. Here are your frontrunners: EP7, E4, E8, E5, E8, EP7. That’s a lot of frontrunning for any race, so we will be looking closely at late runners again.
.
To be honest, I really don’t like the 3 chalky ones in this race. They’re all frontrunners and should be compromised by getting caught up in the speed duel up front. Even if they try to rate them that might not work either. Break Even has the best chance but is coming off a horrid 6th in her 2020 debut.
.
Best chances / long shot specials:
Heaven’s Whisper (6-1, P2) is top in LP and Stamina, and I could say enough said, but let’s expound. Coming off 2 wins in the sloppy going at Oaklawn, but those wins also came after a trainer change to the Paul Holthus barn. He’s shown steady improvement with a lot of races the past 7 months.
.
There is a slew of 4 horses within 1 point of each other for 2nd in Power, Stamina and LP, so it’s from these we will try to choose those who have the best chance. Shanghai Tariff 5-2 and Meadow Dance 4-1 are 2 of them, and as aforementioned they will likely get caught up in the racket early, along with Mr. Brave, an E8 at 10-1. That pretty much just leaves us with:
.
Headland (10-1, EP5) looks solid for this one. Top 2 or 3 across the board in Grid aggregates, he has the right running style to get a good effort without getting caught up in a duel. His last 2 PF’s are as good as anyone else has done in their last 3.
.
Spring in the Wind (20-1, P0). It wouldn’t be complete without a super long shot special (SLSS), and this guy is tied for 2nd in LP with those others, but with a legit come from behind running style. I’m throwing out the 2 graded route races, he should never have even been entered. Going back to 6f on dirt could be just what the doctor ordered.
.
R11 6:47ET 8.5f D Clm 50000 4 UP:
There’s enough speed in this to make for a legit pace, but not so much that one of the front running types can’t hold on for a win or ITM. Because the only true frontrunner is Curlin Rules, and he could even hold on for a piece. Here are the top contenders as I see it.
.
Matrooh (5-1, EP6) flattened out a bit in the slop last out, but won both his prior 2 wins, beating Arrival, Curlin Rules, and Eisenstaedt (yes I had to copy and paste that name). Matrooh is #1 in EP, Speed and Power and 2nd in Stamina and his early pressing style is perfect here.
.
Kurilov (7-2, EP3) won 2 of his last 3 and were it not for a couple of neck outs, would be 4 for 5. Great running style and the Grid has him #1 in LP and Stamina, and 2nd in Power.
.
Degrom (6-1, EP7) is one that could hold on since he doesn’t need the lead. He’s top 3 or 4 in LP, Stamina, Power, and is in top form this year with 2 great efforts.
.
Timeline (4-1), Super Dude (6-1), and Hawaakom (15-1) should round out the exotics in some way. The last one is obviously the long shot special.
.
Good luck!
