Weekend Winners Club

.

April 22, 2020. Hot Springs, Arkansas.  The Grid again proved an invaluable source of handicapping at Oaklawn, getting the right chalk horses and some great long shots as well.  Just so you know we don’t make this up, you can see the full Precap article and Grid that were posted on Saturday for reference. We don’t do this often because it takes time, but occasionally people need to see the benefits of this.

.

Let’s start with the Count Fleet G3.  In the Precap, we outlined the 4 chalk horses of less than 5-1 ML, and said this about it:

“Of these 4, Whitmore and Flagstaff are the most likely to actually win.  Bobby’s Wicked One, Hidden Scroll, and Share the Upside are likely to get in a speed duel up front since each of them basically needs the lead to win, so they are likely to be compromised.”

.

All of that came true.  Whitmore took command in the stretch, and Flagstaff came out of nowhere to get up for 2^nd, passing 6 horses in the stretch.  The other 3 were all in the top 4 entering the stretch and faded out of the money by the finish line.

.

We also mentioned 4 long shot specials to use in exotics, including these 2:

“Manny Wah (30-1, P2) was on the Derby trail also last year before reverting to sprint.  He was horrid last out and I don’t know the exact excuse, but his previous 3 showed great form with 2 neck losses and a valid effort in a G1 at 7f, likely not his best distance which is 6f (today’s distance).  30-1? That’s a Super Long Shot Special.

.

Nitrous (20-1, S0) has top LP and 2^nd in Stamina may not mean much in a 6f sprint, but it’s still top LP either way, and he has won at 6f before.  Trouble is, he’s been beaten by Hog Creek Hustle in all 3 of their matches.  But if the going gets hot, he’s a nice price to have in your tri or super. “

.

So what? Well the actual results were as follows:

1^st  Whitmore 3-1

2^nd  Flagstaff 7-2

3^rd  Manny Wah 74-1

4^th  Nitrous 15-1.

50 cent trifecta paid $318

Dime super paid $560.

And all the analysis of course is based on the Grid.

Whitmore was top Power and 3^rd in Speed and Stamina.

Flagstaff was 1^st in Stamina, 2^nd LP and 2^nd in Power

Manny Wah had the 3^rd best PF overall, achieved at this distance 4 races back. (Top PF was Whitmore)

Nitrous was top LP and 2^nd in Stamina as mentioned in the Precap.

.

In the Apple Blossom G1, once again our analysis, based on the Grid, was spot on.  After introducing the 3 favorites, we said this:

“Of the 3, Ce Ce seems like the most likely winner, with a great pace pressing running style good for the occasion.  The other 2 are both front runners that will have to contend with front runner Cookie Dough, also coming off a graded stakes win, this one in the slop at Gulfstream.”

.

.

As we now know, Ce Ce actually won and the other 2 finished off the board after fading. The #1 long shot we mentioned was Point of Honor, who finished 3^rd at 6-1.  

“Point of Honor (10-1 ML).  Normally when a horse is double digits ML and has top LP and Stamina in the Grid, it goes off at around half that.  5-1 maybe not a bad price considering the top LP margin.  Not an impressive debut this year at 7f, but the last time out chasing a fast pace, she won the Black Eyed Susan G2.  This is an automatic bet at anything 5-1 or over. “

.

Coming in 2^nd was Ollie’s Candy at 7-1, whom we did not mention for some reason but is listed as 3^rd in Power, Speed, and EP in the Grid.  A brilliant ride by Rosario but he got caught in the end by the better mare.

.

For race 9, the 2^nd leg of the Pick 4, again some good analysis.

“To be honest, I really don’t like the 3 chalky ones in this race… Break Even has the best chance but is coming off a horrid 6th in her 2020 debut.”

Of course, Break Even was top in EP, Speed, and Power, and impossible to ignore as a key horse. She won at 8-5 as nobody could match her speed that day.

.

.

Then we recommended 4 horses that were within a point of each other for 2^nd in Power, Stamina, and LP.  Shanghai Tariff 5-2 Meadow Dance 4-1 Mr. Brave, an E8 at 10-1.  Headland (10-1, EP5).  Sure enough, 3 of these completed the superfecta. Headland was the top long shot recommended and finished 3^rd at 7-1.

.

So you can see that using the Grid and some sensible analysis, you can roll in some great exotics in any type of race. 

.

As usual, you can get the Grid for every race day at Oaklawn, Gulfstream, and Tampa right here.

Trackback URI | Comments RSS