Loading ...May 02 2020
Arkansas Derby G1 X 2 Precap, 3 Pick 4’s, Expert Picks, Grid PP’s Sat.May.2
Saturday, May 2, Hot Springs, Arkansas. It’s finally here, the day we’ve been waiting all year for, the first Saturday in May. The famous Run for the Apple Blossoms will take place at Oaklawn Park today. In fact, there will be two Arkansas Derbies with 11 great 3yo runners each today. Each race will be worth $500k and earn 100-40-20-10 Kentucky Derby points.
NOTE: Each Derby field down to 9 after scratches. Revisions to picks and analysis below at 2pm ET.
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It’s not clear to us laypeople how they decided on divvy up the fields, but they have Bob Baffert’s 1 and 1a contenders in separate races as expected, and each is the ML favorite as expected. Steve Asmussen’s 4 pack is also split up into two each, with one solid mid tier contender and long shot in each. Todd Pletcher also has a solid contender in each race.
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Get today’s Free Grid here to follow along.
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Arkansas Derby 1 is race 11 will begin at about 630PM ET and will kick off the stakes racing and the last of 3 Pick 4’s of the day. Baffert’s Charlatan will be the favorite, although not stakes raced yet, and technically a 2 race wonder. But in his only 2 races, both this year, he’s put up a pair of PF’s, neither of which has been achieved by any in either Derby. Reminds you of Justify? Perhaps.
NOTE: 6 Shooters Shoot and 7 Wrecking Crew scratched
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To make matters worse for the competition, there are no other frontrunners on paper to challenge Charlatan on the lead. So don’t be surprised if someone (code word for Asmussen) sends a horse to the lead as a rabbit (code word for Jungle Runner) to make sure the pace blazes up front. Because his other horse Basin is 2nd in Power and Speed, and will improve on the dry track.
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Anneau D’Or is 3rd in Power and needs to regain last year’s form where he scored the best non-Charlatan PF of any in this field, falling short in the BCJ by a head. Gouverneur Morris, 4th in Power, 2nd Stamina, is dangerous and should be forwardly placed to compete.
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Winning Impression and Crypto Cash are 2nd and 3rd in LP (behind Charlatan) which always counts for something in a 9f race, and both look like they will be best on a dry dirt track for once. They also desire a fast pace up front, which unfortunately they probably willnot get. If they do, great prices in your exotics.
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My Friends Beer has never had a fast pace in his 8 races and could do some damage if it gets heated up frontsomehow, but it doesn’t look like he’ll get his day once again.
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Ark Derby predicted order: 1 11 4 8 9 10 LSS 9 11 10
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Arkansas Derby 2 begins Race 13 at about 745PM ET. As mentioned, it’s unclear how they choose the fields, because this one has 6 frontrunners or wannabe frontrunners scheduled. This means things will likely get heated up front whether they want it to or not, and Baffert’s favored Nadal will have a lot of company on the lead. He’s tops in Power and Speed but could get compromised by the pace.
NOTE: 2 Saratogian and 8 Fast Enough Scratched
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So now it’s time to seriously talk about some LP. Tops in that category is Asmussen’s Silver Prospector at 10-1 ML. He got the pace he wanted last 2 out, winning the Southwest G3 and fading in the other one in the slop. 3 of his last 6 were on the mud and his 3 worst PF’s of the 6.
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Finnick the Fierce is 2nd in LP and has been in our Derby Dozen all year. He hasn’t done anything wrong, but has never had a fast pace in front of him in his 6 career races. It will be interesting to see what he does today if he finally gets the hot pace at 15-1.
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Farmington Road 12-1 is 3rd in LP and was moved earlier than usual last out after giving the leader a 17 length head start at the beginning of the race. He closed for a strong 2nd in the Oaklawn stakes.
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Next in LP are Fast Enough (SCRATCHED), who may be just enough to catch some purse money, and Wells Bayou, who although a frontrunner, usually is game in continuing a strong late kick and likes to win gate to wire.
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Arkansas Derby 2 predicted order: 7 1 12 5 11 4 LSS 7 1 12 8
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Sandwiched in between the 2 Arkansas Derbies will be the Oaklawn Handicap G2 full of 14 great older horses. This one has 2 frontrunners and one more that will be pressuring them, so it should be an honest pace up front but probably not blazing. For this reason we have to seriously consider LP which has been doing very well at two turns at Oaklawn recently.
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The top 4 late runners in the Oaklawn are all very close in LP, within 2 points of each other and all over 100 in that calculation, so take your picks.
By My Standards 9-2 looks the most likely since he’s won 2 in a row, including the New Orleans Classic G2 last out in which he easily held off Captivating Moon and Chess Chief, who’s 30-1 but finished only 3 back in that race. He’s 1 of the top 4 in LP and if he gets that fast pace up front, he could win this.
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Combatant 4-1 will also be a betting favorite at 4-1 after winning the Big Cap G1 and has the right to win this at a shorter distance. Sky Promise 20-1 is the final top 4 LP and it will also be interesting to see what he can do behind a fast pace up front and a good trip.
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Next we have Tacitus, the 2nd best 3yo last year behind Maximum Security, who lost to that one last out by 4 in a Saudi Stakes race. After that, Mr. Freeze and Trophy Chaser will be in the mix early with Warrior’s Charge but they may all 3 go to fast early and cancel each other out. Of the 3, Trophy Chaser is the one that won from right behind the pace last 2 out, proving he doesn’t need the lead to win.
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Oaklawn Handicap Predicted Order: 12 1 7 8 9 2 SLSS 1 and 8
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Race 14: In traditional fashion, a 14f allowance race on dirt known as the Trail’s End will wrap up racing today and the Oaklawn meet for the year. The defending champion Rouge Diesel is the only one who was in last year’s version and the only horse to have raced 14f in their last 10. But that was also by far his best effort of the last 10.
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It’s easy to say just go LP in this one all the way, except the fact that it’s basically devoid of speed, so we’ll go with power first. The favorite Carlos Sixes will probably have the lead all to himself. Just barely ahead of him for #1 in Stamina, Power, and Speed is River Echo at 8-1 so those two have to be key horses.
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Top LP is She Might Tell so let’s not leave her out. Dangerfield, Wickets Way and Ghostly Who also have good power ratings and good LP.
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R14 Trails End prediction: 5 14 12 1 7 8
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The rest of the race top picks will be posted below here at some point before the post time.
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Race 1: 1 12 3 4 2
Race 2: 3 6 10 8 9 1
Race 3: 2 3 4 12 10
Race 4: 11 7 8 9 2 12
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R1: 1 6 12 3. Didn’t see that 6 coming for 2nd at 24-1
R2: 6 8 3 9. About as expected. 1 of the first timers didn’t fire. Getting 9 to come in at 55-1 jacked up the dime super to $92. T50 of $27 not bad either for an easy call.
Race 3: 5 4 3 12. The pacesetters 2 4 and 12 got heated early, going faster at all 3 time calls than the previous 2 races at 6f. 5 hung back a bit and took over for the win. It wasn’t real shocking to see the 5th rated Power horse win the race, but the odds of 33-1 were a bit surprising, up from 10-1 ML.
Race 4: 11 5 7 9. There was nothing much to like about 5’s PP’s but he came out guns blazing this time and tried to steal it on the front end. Too much pressure from 7 and 11 took over late. No pay here either.
The first 4 races were only 6f but LP did very well with a couple wins and finishing in the money.
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Let’s continue picking the rest of the races and get some good LP and Long Shot Specials. Make sure you get the Grid above so you can see who the top LP contenders are.
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Race 5: 8 9 11 12 13 3 LSS 8 13 3
Race 6 Start of mid day Pick 4: 4 2 5 12 7 3 LSS 2 12 7
Race 7: 8 13 10 7 11 12 LSS 11 12
Race 8: 7 8 10 6 5 2 1 LSS 7 8 10 2 1
Race 9: 3 5 1 2 7 10
Race 10: 7 11 2 8 12 4 LSS 8 12 4
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As usual you can get the Grid for all major tracks and races here.
