Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, May 16. Churchill Downs has its opening day a tad later than usual this year as we all know, and without a Kentucky Derby as the highlight of the early meet.  But they’re getting started in style, with an 11 race card, over 160 horses entered including alternates, meaning probably about 120 will run in some big competitive fields great purse money without any stakes races. There are also a couple MSW’s as the longest Triple Crown Trail in history continues.

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In fact, there are only 2 races without maxed out fields and alternates before scratches.  One of those two is a race where only 6 sets of connections are ready to take on the 2018 filly of the year.  Monomoy Girl is in her first race since winning the Breeders Cup Distaff in 2018, her last race that rounding out a year in which she won 6 Grade 1 races including the Kentucky Oaks.  

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We’re going to very briefly cover every race and point out some good plays from the Grid, including long shot specials.  It’s impossible to know the exact post time odds beforehand, and sometimes they change wildly.  So we can only identify morning line long shots. 

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Normally, Churchill is more than fair to late pace, but there was heavy rain last night, and there could be some more today, so it could well begin by favoring early speed. This morning the track is sloppy and all races off turf.  Unless we’ve seen a few races, it’s hard to tell how it will play.  But we’ll give the top picks now assuming the track is playing neutral.  If a bias develops, then use the Grid to your advantage!

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First get the Churchill Grid here free so you can follow along.  Morning scratches already processed.

Below today’s picks, check out the Grid highlights from Santa Anita opening yesterday, great payouts!

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No write-ups here, just the top picks, with the most likely contenders in order, followed by the long shot specials (LSS) which generally need at least 10-1 on the ML because Grid LSS always gets bet down.  By using the Grid you can see why we selected these.

A= alternate entry, M= Dirt track only (MTO)

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Current Conditions:  Main Track Sloppy; All races off Turf; Cloudy with chance of T-storms afternoon.

Race 1:  12 10 1, 1^st Timers 5 6 9 , LSS 3 5 9

Race 2:  2 3 1 9 6, LSS 1

Race 3:  3 13A 12 9 8        LSS 13 8 9

R4:  2 5 1 6 7        LSS 1 5

R5:  18M 10 7 13A 8 11

R6:  8 5 9 7 4 12  LSS 4 12

R7:  5 12 2 11 1

R8:  9 17M 14A 5 12          LSS  14 12

R9:  12 5 11 10 8 9 6 14A  LSS 5 6 14 9 8

R10:  8 11 5 2 1   LSS 11

R11:  11 4 5 10 14A 9        5  14

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So there you have it, best bets and long shot specials for all 11 races.  We’ll update it after morning scratches are posted and before noon to reflect the shorter fields. 

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You can get the Grid for every track you want with this service here. Check out the options. Good luck!

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Santa Anita Opening Day Recap:

Let’s quickly review SA Friday’s highlights according to the Grid. Payouts for lowest base bets: $1 Exacta, 50 cent trifecta, and DIME super as obtainable using Grid.  RUP = runner up ATB = Across the Board in Grid aggregates.

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R1:  Winner favored 3-1; Runner up 2^nd best turf PF 15-1, 3^rd place top EP/Spd/Pwr 6-1; 4^th top LP/Stam at 5-1.  Exacta $44, Tri $194, Dime $262

R2:  Winner top EP/Spd 2^nd in Pwr/Stam 5-1; RUP 1^st timer overlay good Win/ITM% 18-1; 3^rd place good Win/ITM 1^st timer huge overlay 57-2; 4^th place top EP 2^nd Spd 3^rd Pwr/Stam 7-1.   Exacta $103, Tri $1244, Dime Super $2595.  Proves a race with half 1^st timers can be very profitable, even when you don’t knw what will happen.  Box or key the top 2 or 3 established runners with high % 1^st timers.

R3:  Winner top 5 ATB 3^rd best PF 20-1; RUP 2^nd EP 4^th Spd 4^th PF 24-1; 3^rd pl 2^nd pwr/stam/lp 8-5; 7-10 fav off the board.  Tough to get but if you did, Exacta $182, Tri $244

R4: Wnr top PF/LP/Stam 3^rd pwr 2^nd spd 14-1. Paid $31.60 $12.40 and $6.40. Combos too difficult.

R5:  Top 3 chalk. Boring

R6:  Wnr 3rd Pwr/Spd/Ep 2^nd PF 6-1; RUP 2^nd pwr/stam/ PF 3-1; Fav 3^rd place; 4^th plc top Stam 2^nd LP 9-1.  All top 4 betting choices so payouts boring.

R7: Wnr fav 2-1; RUP top 4/5 ATB 10-1; 3^rd 2^nd fav 5-2; 4^th high % 1^st timer 24-1.  Ex $130, Tri $170

R8:  Chalk, chalk, and chalk

R9:  Wnr 1^st ATB and top PF 6-1.  Paid $14.40 $7 $3.80. RUP not much to like except 3^rd in EP 40-1.

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Get the Grids for Santa Anita, Churchill, Gulfstream, Tampa, and other tracks here.

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