Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, May 23.  Churchill Downs kicks off Memorial Day weekend with an awesome 11 race card including 5 stakes races in various categories.  Most importantly the longest Triple Crown Trail in history continues with the featured Matt Winn G3 wherein 10 brave young colts will battle for 50 points and an automatic Kentucky Derby spot for the winner. 20, 10 and 5 points will be issued to the 3 next finishers.

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Let’s skip the BS and start handicapping.  Grab the Grid for today at the link below (morning scratches already processed) so you can follow along  We start with a full analysis of the Matt Winn G3 and then go from there. Conditions as of noon are fast and firm but there is a 30% chance of afternoon T Storms.

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The talented Matt Winn field favors Maxfield 5-2 finally making his 3yo debut after two excellent races to begin his career last year. After breaking his maiden at Churchill he delivered a great closing move to win the Breeders’ Futurity G1 at Keeneland, resulting in the highest PF in this field. If they run a legit pace up front and he runs his race, he will be hard to beat.

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In a virtual tie with Maxfield for top Power rating, and both at 4-1 are Attachment Rate and Pneumatic. Attachment Rate is consistent and failed to put together a win in either of his last 2 stakes races but finished ITM.  His only bad race was his first out, also his only at Churchill where he ran 11^th.  But he has beaten all 5 other horses in this field that he has run against.  Pneumatic has beaten nobody but won both his races delivering good PF’s and is coached by Asmussen.

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Right behind them in Power rating are NY Traffic 10-1 and Major Fed 5-1.  I like NY Traffic for a piece of the purse because his speed has held up well this year including 2 G2 races, including the Risen Star where Major Fed caught and beat him by about ½ length at 9f. However last out NY Traffic turned the tables, finishing 2^nd in the 9.5f Louisiana Derby while Major Fed ran from 12 back early to get 4^th, 3 lengths behind NYT.  It looks like in this race NYT is the only legit speed and should hold up for ITM.

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With the scratch of Mystic Guide at 15-1, NY Traffic is will be single digits by post time for sure. The only other long shot I can recommend to hit the board is Shake Some Action 12-1. Early picks for the Matt Winn:

Race 10 Winn G3:  10 2 11 6 12 9                   LSS 6 9

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Other key races:

Race 3 MSW3 79k:  10 9 7 4 10 1 2 3           LSS 7 4 10 1 2 3

Race 4 MSW3 79k  11 6 9 1 12 7                   LSS 12 7

Race 7 Shawnee 100k:  4 3 6 8 1 2              LSS 3 6 1 2

Race 8 Tepin 100k:  14 9 15a 7 1 3 2            LSS 15a 2 3           SLSS 1 (50-1)

Race 9 Blame 100k:  8 7 3 4 9 13 5 6            LSS 7 9                   SLSS 4 5

Race 11 War Chant 100k:  2 1 10 9 6 5 12 11 14      LSS 1 2 10 11       SLSS 14 (50-1)

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As you can see, there are some very competitive fields with lots of long shot specials (8-1 or more morning line) and Super LSS (20-1 or higher).  So go get some good long shots and good luck!

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Get the Grid for all major tracks every race day including Gulfstream, Santa Anita, others here.

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