Weekend Winners Club

.

Sunday, May 24.  Expert picks were made for Churchill Saturday along with the Grid PP’s provided for free.  Let’s take a look at how we did with picks and what the Grid had to say about the top finishers. Payouts given are for $2 Exacta, 50 cent Trifecta, and Dime Super.

.

.

Race 1:  No official picks made

Result:  9 12 6 4

Recap:  2-5 favorite won.  12 at 15-1 was one of 3 1^st time starters, all with good ROI numbers. 4 at 17-1 was tied with 9 for top LP and 2^nd in stamina.  6 was impossible to get.

.

Race 2:  No picks made

Result:  4 3 2 9

Recap:  Top LP won at 3-1, followed by 2 of the top 4 EP. 7-5 fav who was another of the top 4 EP’s, finished last making for some good payouts. 4^th place was top 4 in LP/Stam/Power $2 exacta $81, 50ct trifecta $108.  

.

Race 3 MSW3 79k:  10 9 7 4 10 1 2 3           LSS 7 4 10 1 2 3

Result:  10 1 7 6

Recap:  Easy 2-1 winner. Almost all others listed were longshots.  1 and 7 were both 8-1.  There was nothing to like about 6 at 77-1.  Exacta $45, Tri $85. Dime super $650 if you wheeled all bottom.

.

Race 4 MSW3 79k  11 6 9 1 12 7                   LSS 12 7

Result:  9 7 1 11

Recap:  Easy enough.  LSS 7 was 2^nd at 17-1.  One of two 1^st time starters with good ROI numbers.  Winner 3-1. 2^nd and 3^rd were top 2 3 or 4 in most categories. Exacta $147, Trifecta, $170 Dime $141.  

Race 5:  No picks made

Result:  1 5 9 6

Recap:  8-1 Winner had top PF on the board, just 3 races back, and top 3/4/5 in all categories except EP.  2^nd and 3^rd had some good numbers but so did most in a wide open race. 6 was tied for top LP.  The top 2 betting choices finished off the board making for good payouts. Ex $146, Tri $285, Dime $398.

.

Race 6:  No picks made

Result: 10 4 5 6

Recap:  10 at 9-2 should have been the favorite, with top LP/Stam/Power in Grid. 4 was the actual favorite at 8-5 and obvious pick. 5 was 3^rd in Stam&LP at 15-1.  6 at 9-2 was 1^st in EP&Speed, 3^rd in power. Not real difficult but it was kind of wide open. Ex $37, Tri $78, Dime $61.  

.

Race 7 Shawnee 100k:  4 3 6 8 1 2              LSS 3 6 1 2

Result:  4 2 6 3

Recap:  3-5 winner was obvi.  2 at 27-1 barely made our top 6 and overachieved. 6 and 3 were 5-1 and 21-1 and would have been better for us if they finished 2^nd and 3^rd.  Obviously not impossible if you were boxing all 6 or keying the 4 at the top.  Ex $49, Tri $ 47, Dime $42.

.

Race 8 Tepin 100k:  14 9 15a 7 1 3 2            LSS 15a 2 3           SLSS 1 (50-1)

Result:  9 2 10 6

Recap:  With favored 14 finishing 5^th, it was up to the 2^nd choice 9 at 2-1.  2 was our LSS hitting 2^nd at 12-1.  10 was 4^th in LP but not too much to like. 6 showed improvement in all 3 races and continued in his 4^th this day.  Exacta $63.  (Tri $207, Dime $749 on your own there)

.

Race 9 Blame 100k:  8 7 3 4 9 13 5 6            LSS 7 9                   SLSS 4 5

Result:  8 5 7 13

Recap:  Yes we had to go 7 deep in the 14 horse race to catch the super.  Our top pick at 9-2 winning, we picked him due to top Power ranking, 2^nd in LP and Stam. 3 was the public favorite, finishing 6^th.  LSS 5 is a horse that likes to show up when his odds are long like they were at 28-1.  Our 2^nd choice 7 was top in LP/Stam.  13 was 3^rd in LP and 4^th in Stamina.  Great payouts:  Ex $212, Tri $430, Dime $603.

.

Race 10 Winn G3:  10 2 11 6 12 9                   LSS 6 9

Result:  10 6 2 11

Recap:  It’s like a rerun of last race, our top pick followed by LSS and then our 2^nd and 3^rd pick. But someone rich was using our picks because the fav only paid $4.60 and 6 was 7-2 down from 10-1 ML.  2 was only 5-2. 11 went up to 10-1 but the payouts still sucked.  Ex $25, Tri $21, Dime $17.

.

Race 11 War Chant 100k:  2 1 10 9 6 5 12 11 14      LSS 1 2 10 11       SLSS 14 (50-1)

Result:  9 12 5 6 1

Recap:  9 was top in Power/Speed/EP and the only reason it wasn’t our top pick was because there were several other E8’s in a 8f race so that’s usually not good for early speed.  12 ended up 13-1 after 6-1 ML so if we knew that it would have been an LSS.  Obvi we liked 5-6 also but the odds weren’t that great. Good payouts tho thanks to 12. Ex $145, Tri $227, Dime $224.

.

Overall Grade:  A-

A pattern all day was one of our top 2 picks winning followed by a LSS and then some others from our top selections in some sort of order.  The order could have been better but the races were wide open and competitive. If you keyed our top picks on top of others, or boxed them with LSS, and put a WPS on some of those, you made out pretty well.  It was really tough to predict exact finishing order that day.

Trackback URI | Comments RSS