Weekend Winners Club

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Thursday, May 28, 2020.  Churchill Downs was today’s free Precap track with picks provided for every race top down.  Lately we’ve been trying to issue a report card for every day we issue picks so the public can keep track of how we’re doing, and to show how the Grid is used in handicapping.

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In this format, we copy and paste the initial race prediction lines from the Precap article, complete with long shot specials.  Then we add the result and a recap for each race. Payouts are given if we got them based on the picks, for $2 Exacta, 50 cent Trifecta, and Dime Super.

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R1 1:00ET 8.5f D Clm 50000n2l 3 UP:  3 6 8 5 2    LSS 5

Result:  2 8 6 3
Recap:  Managed to get the top 5 order almost completely backwards but at least we got it.  LP made strong showing and good box results. Exacta $90, Tri $66, Dime super $24.

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R2 1:30ET 5f D MSW 2 YO F 79000:  11 3 10 6 2 1              LSS 10 2 1

Result:  3 1 7 6 11
Recap:  3 was 2-5 fav, nothing you can do about that. Helps to get a LSS on the board in 2^nd at 50-1, paying $17.2 and $11.2.  Exacta $73 not bad for a prohibitive fav winning.

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R3 2:00ET 8.5f D Clm 10000n2l 3 UP FM:  4 7 5 10 6 9       LSS 5 10 6

Result:  6 1 7 9 4
Recap:  It’s fun to claim a LSS winner looking at the 12-1 ML, but not as much fun when it goes off at <4-1.  I didn’t like the 1 in this race but it was top LP in the Grid so kind of dumb to leave it out in a route.  Winner paid $9.6, $5.4, and $4.2.  Oh well at least we stayed alive in vertical action.

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R4 2:32ET 8.5f D Md 10000 3 UP:  8 12 13 9 6 7   LSS 9 6 7

Result: 6 12 7 8 1
Recap:  Finally we got a legit top 6 box, led by top LSS pick at 14-1, followed by even money at 2^nd and another LSS at 9-1 and our top pick which continues to finish 4^th or 5^th.  Winner paid $31.2, $11, $6.4.  It was an open 12 horse field so we did box all 6.  Exacta $76, Tri $163, Dime $108. 

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R5 3:04ET 8f D OClm 10000 4 UP FM:  1 12 6 8 9 4             LSS 8 9 4

Result:  12 1 6 4 9.
Recap:  Got the order a little closer this time but hence chalkier at the top.  6 hitting board at 9-1 would have been a legit LSS call but was only 6-1 ML and it has to be 8-1 or greater.  LSS 4 getting in at 25-1 was also cool for the super.  Keyed 12 and 1, the top 2 Power and LP.  Exacta $16, Tri $16, Dime $8.  Ugh. But wait, did we mention a 50 cent pick 4 payout of $445?  Nice.  That’s why we play the game.

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R6 3:36ET 8.5f T Clm 40000 4 UP:  6 5 7 11 3 1     LSS 7

Result:  5 11 2 1 4
Recap:  5 and 11 up to 7-1 from the ML helped as bettors went heavy on 6.  Pesky 2 blew up the tri and super, and no true LSS.  Still, Exacta of $142 not bad.

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R7 4:08ET 7f D Clm 20000n2l 3 UP FM: 3 10 7 2 4 8            LSS  (7) 2 4

Result:  10 2 8 7 5
Recap:  chalky top 3 with 7 bringing up the rear of the super for 11-1 after a 6-1ML making it a questionable LSS pick.  Easy enough but payouts miniscule.  Exacta $21, Tri $26, Dime $27. 

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R8 4:40ET 8.5f D Alw 81000n1x 3 UP:  10 3 6 2 9 5 1           LSS*:  10 3 6 2

Result:  9 6 4 8 1.
Recap:  the 5-2 fav 10 finishing off the board helped payouts in a wide open race.  4 wasn’t horrible but there’s a reason it was 40-1, not a lot to like. LSS 6 would up 5-1 so not an LSS at post.  Exacta $45.

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R9 5:12ET 5f T Alw 88000nc 3 UP FM:  2 8 6 1 4 9                LSS:  6* 4 12

Result:  5 6 7 2
Recap:  Race was wide open which is when you see a 18-1 winner by a trainer shaded by some of the others in here. Saving grace was the 6, with a * as super LSS at 30-1 ML, down to 12-1 at post but still a good bet.   Thanks to top 3 public choices 8 2 and 1 not doing so well, the payouts were great if you got them.  6 paid $12.8 and $7.8.

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R10 5:44ET 8.5f D Md 30000 3 UP:  12 4 9 10 5 14 6           LSS*:  4 9 10 6

Result:  4 2 3 9
Recap:  Once again the LSS came down from 10-1 to be the actual betting favorite at 3-1, meaning someone must have been putting a lot of money on my picks.  And I didn’t like the 2 or 3 for this race because there was no speed for the plodders to run at.  Can’t win them all.

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So the end of the day fizzled out just like that, but you can see in the early half of the day we were crushing it.  After the early pick 4 payout it was mostly downhill.  Race 9 blew up the late pick 4 and any remaining chance to win anything significant.  Overall Grade:  B- for not getting much done late.

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As always, you can get the Grid for every big track and race day in North America here, and make great picks yourself!

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