Weekend Winners Club

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Thursday May 28.  Expert picks were given for Tampa Bay Downs Wednesday May 27 using the Grid as the sole reference.  Let’s see how they did. Payouts given as applicable for $1 exacta, 50 cent trifecta, Dime superfecta. Picks are copied and pasted from Wednesday’s Precap article.

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R1 1:00ET 8.18f D Md 16000 3 UP FM:  5 4 2 3.  V chalky don’t bet it.  Start of Pick 5

Result:  3 2 5 4
Recap:  Payouts ended up being decent because 3 went up to 9-1 from 4-1ML somehow, even tho it had the Grid top LP rating.  Exacta $56, Trifecta $115, Dime super $51.

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R2 1:30ET 8.18f D Clm 5000n1y 4 UP FM:  7 6 8 3 2 1        LSS 8 3   Start of early Pick 4

Result:  3 2 7 1
Recap:  First long shot special of the day won at 20-1! Top LP in Grid again.  Rest of super also from top 6 picks.  WPS $42 $16 $7, Exacta $133, Tri $330, Dime $205.

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R3 2:00ET 8f T Clm 25000n2l 3 UP:  7 8 5 4            LSS 3 10 1

Result:  7 10 8 5
Recap:  Favorite/winner was top pick at 8-5.  2^nd place LSS at 7-1, easy pickins again. Ex $17, Tri $50, Dime $31.

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R4 2:30ET 8.18f D Md 10000 3 UP:  2 8 3                LSS 1 10 9             Ultimate 6 starts

Result:  2 3 4 8
Recap:  V chalky except for the 4 busting in at 27-1 with not much to like but 4^th LP.  Ex $5, Tri $25

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R5 3:00ET 8f T OClm 75000n1x 3 YO F:  3 1 4 5 8                LSS 4 8                   Late Pick 5 begins

Result:  5 4 1 3
Recap:  Ended up quite chalky as the 4 went down to 7-2.  Ex $26, Tri $38, Dime $14.  50 cent Pick 4 $436!!

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R6 3:30ET 8.18f D Clm 8000n3l 3 UP:  8 10 3 6 7 9               LSS 7 9                   Late Pick 4 begins

Result:  3 6 9 4
Recap:  Top 2 picks were also top 2 public choices, finishing off the board for some good payouts including LSS 9 hitting the board at 28-1 for a $9 show pay.  Once again, you guessed it, top LP in the Grid.  Ex $38, Tri $206.  Dime would pay $656 if you wheeled all at bottom.

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R7 4:00ET 8f T OClm 32000n2x 4 UP:  7 5 8 10 13 3 6 4      LSS 10 3                Last Pick 3 of day

Result:  8 5 6 3
Recap:  Very competitive wide open race with odds spread out which is why we listed like 8 of them. Speed took the top 2 slots as expected then top LP made 3^rd.  We got $42 exacta.  If you were clever enough to put it together correctly, Tri $125 and Dime $95. 

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R8 4:30ET 5.5f D Clm 8000n2l 3 UP FM:  13 3 6 8 12 9       LSS         9 11

Result:  12 6 13 4
Recap:  Winner 6-1 top EP in a sprint.  6 and 13 virtual co-favs.  Ex $23, Tri $51.

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R9 5:00ET 8f T MSW 3 YO F 20000:  2 6 4 9 13 10               LSS 10

Result:  2 6 9 10
Recap:  V Chalky since 10 couldn’t quite get up for 3^rd at 16-1.  But guess what? Another Pick 4 for $409!  Ex 12, Tri 16, Dime 19.  So that’s what you can do with the Grid!

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As a bonus, to further overanalyze this, Let’s do some basic ROI calcs.  16 LSS’s were listed for the 9 races.  Let’s say you bet $2WPS on each of them, that’s a $96 investment on the day.  In that case, you got $92 back.  But you also included the top LSS in your pick 4 so you won $436 on the early one and $409 on the late Pick 4.  So even if you spent more than $100 on those, which normally you would spend about $50 each, you still made out well. 

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In addition, lots of exactas and trifectas were racked up.  Let’s say you decided to just box the top 6 picks in an exacta, trifecta, and dime super for every race.  This is not really recommended to do in each race, but you did it anyway. So you spent $96 on each race for $864 total.  Ouch.  In this case you made $1503 back.  But chances are you didn’t go 6 deep in the shorter fields of 7 or 8, so you wouldn’t have spent $864 but more like $500 to get the same payout.  That’s a good ROI.

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So according to the above scenarios and you remembered to included the winning LSS in your Pick 4, then you profited by $1380, or even more if you were able to construe some of the exotics that we didn’t quite put together.

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As usual, you can get the Grid for every major track and race here.

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