Weekend Winners Club

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Saturday, May 30, 2020.  We provided and posted official picks for Churchill Downs on Saturday for every race including the two stakes races.  The Report Card is intended to show how we did.  First we copy and paste the picks, then add the results and recap.  We’ve been doing very well on these. Payouts are given for those achieved using our picks in the format of $2 exacta, $1 trifecta, Dime super, 50cent pick 4.

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R1 1:00ET 6f D Md 75000 3 UP FM :  7 6 5 3 1      LSS 6

Result:  5 2 7 3.
Recap:   2 wasn’t horrible and was top 5 across the board, but in a 7 horse field that doesn’t count for a lot. Odds on 5 and 7 not worth betting at 3-2 each.  No payouts.

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R2 1:30ET 8.5f D Clm 16000 4 UP FM :  3 5 1 4    6H field

Result:  4 3 7 2
Recap:  Obviously I liked 4 and 3 and a 6h field means don’t bet exacta but wheel all on bottom of Trifecta $25.

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R3 2:00ET 9f T MSW 3 UP FM 79000:  12 5 4 10 9 1            LSS 9 1

Result:  4 12 10 9
Recap:  Finally a good sized field but too bad the top 2 betting choices finished 1-2. No surprises here and exotics were worth boxing but didn’t pay a lot.  Ex $25, Tri $26, Dime $47.

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R4 2:32ET 6f D Clm 20000 3 YO  :  4 6 5 2 1           LSS 6

Result:  4 7 2 1
Recap:  Back to a short field.  Obviously we liked the winner.  Nothing to like about the 7 except the trainer.  Busted bets but as top choice 4 was worth betting at 4-1 post time.

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R5 3:04ET 6f D Md 20000 3 UP  :  6 7 4 11 12 10 1               LSS 7 11 10 1

Result:  14 6 11 3
Recap:  There was nothing to like about this 18-1 winner but the trainer who had 2^nd best situational Win/ITM numbers according to the Grid calculations. I liked favored 6 and 11 at 47-1 but that wasn’t enough.  Worst thing about this race was it busted the Pick 4 which paid some lucky people $670. 

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R6 3:36ET 9f T Alw 81000n1x 3 YO  :  5 10 11 2    LSS 4 3 1 7

Result:  8 12 10 3
Recap:  Once again, 3 long shots of 20-1 or more sandwiching the even money favorite 10.  And once again, not much to like about the winner who had the 3^rd lowest high PF in the field of 12.  A case could be made for 12 who was 5^th in LP and Stamina, and 3 who was 3^rd in LP/Stam.  Oh well.

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R7 4:08ET 6f D WnngClrs-G3 4 UP FM :  8 2 1 7 6 3            LSS 1 6 3

Result:  4 2 8 5
Recap:  In a 6f G3 race, normally we ignore the S0 plodder with the lowest high PF in the field, even if it is tied for top LP, so we did.  It was another most unlikely winner at 13-1 but LP was starting to dominate the day.  The top 2 favorites with much superior speed couldn’t even win at 6f.

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R8 4:40ET 8.5f D MSW 3 UP  79000:  8 9 3 7 1 10                LSS 8 3 1 10

Result:  6 7 12 9
Recap:  Again, 3 long shots before we get to the 6-5 favorite.  This time, the 3^rd slowest plodder in a field of 12 won at 17-1, and wasn’t even top 5 in LP.  7 made sense but went up to 10-1 due to being one of the few early runners at a track where late runners are dominating whether they have good LP or not.

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R9 5:12ET 5.5f T OClm 62500n2x 3 UP FM :  6 13 8 12 11 5 3          LSS 8 12 5 3

Result:  10 13 12 5.
Recap:  Again, the horse with the 3^rd lowest high PF in a field of 12 won, at 25-1 this time on turf.  The other 3 made sense, but at this point the winners were starting to get absurd and the Pick 4 was gone long ago so cut our losses after this race.

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R10 5:44ET 8.5f D OClm 62500n2x 3 UP  :  7 8 3 10 4 1     LSS 3 1

Result:  7 8 10 6
Recap:  Finally a race that made sense again, with the nonsensical 47-1 finishing at 4^th which was still better than it should have. Payouts weren’t great but we quit betting until the stakes race, where there should always be money to win.

R11 6:16ET 8.5f T MntJulp-G3 4 UP FM :  1 13 14 6 2 4      LSS 13 14 4 10 5 7

Result:  7 5 11 4
Recap:  There were so many possibilities, and although there was not much speed, late runners were dominating on dirt and turf.  And what better than the top LP plodder at 25-1, up from 8-1ML?!  I was all in for that one.  WPS paid $53, $21 and $15, times 10 for me.  Two other good plodders ran 2^nd and 3^rd, but there were too many competitors to hit a box so I didn’t get them. However, the payouts were astronomical.  For some lucky ones, Exacta $1045, Trifecta $2305, Dime super $11,681.  Like I said, I wasn’t so luck.

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Overall grade:  C-.  By far the worst grade we have delivered on a report card.  I’m tempted to give the track a grade of F since midway on, early runners couldn’t compete even if they were superior to others.  Plodders all had the right of way whether they had any late speed or not.  Grade would have been much worse if we hadn’t come up with a top LP 25-1 winner in the last race.  The Grid saved the day once again.

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As always, you can get the Grid for all the big tracks and races, including Belmont, Gulfstream, Santa Anita, Tampa, and Golden Gate right here.

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