Weekend Winners Club

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June 3, 2020.  The Belmont Stakes has been scheduled for June 20, a typical date for the race.  But everything about it is atypical this month.  For one, there has been no Kentucky Derby; secondly there was no Preakness Stakes; and thirdly, the distance has been reduced to 9 furlongs, vastly different from the 12 furlongs that it has been run at since 1926.   

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Latest Belmont Precaps and analysis here.

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So what does that mean for this year?  Primarily, it means the Belmont Stakes is another Kentucky Derby Prep race, the prep with the highest point values ever assigned: 150 for the winner, 60-30-15 for the also-rans.  So the winner and runner up of the Belmont this year will both automatically get into the Kentucky Derby.  And the stakes have been raised such that those horses having 40-50 points may be on the fence and need to do more.

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The Belmont is in fact much like the Peter Pan Stakes in normal years, except that it is not a prep for the Belmont but rather for the Preakness and Kentucky Derby.  What it also means is that Bob Baffert has the easiest route ever to another Triple Crown sweep.  The Belmont was his bane for many years as the distance was a furlong or two too far for his top horses.  This year, the longest they will need to run is 10f in the Kentucky Derby, which being in September, will be much easier to obtain.

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Now that Nadal is out with injury, the only Baffert trainee being considered for the Triple Crown sweep is Charlatan, certainly a very talented horse albeit a tad green with racing.  The undefeated speedster may be stripped of his Arkansas Derby title and earnings due to a drug testing positive for lidocaine, but that apparently is not affecting his Belmont eligibility so that doesn’t matter at this point. 

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In fact, Baffert may be suspended for 15 days or more if found complicit in the drugging, but that won’t matter much either.  The odds of him serving the suspension during the Belmont Stakes is unlikely, as he will appeal to have it occur during another time period.  If or when the suspension does come down, he will simply officially transfer the horse to the care of an assistant trainer until the suspension is lifted.

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For a frontrunning speedster like Charlatan, a 12f Belmont would be a daunting task, as it was for Justify, one of few frontrunners to ever win it.  But at 9f, it’s obviously not a problem.  Charlatan went gate to wire in the 9f Arkansas Derby (Division 1), with nobody getting within 2 lengths of him, and winning by 6 in the end.  And he set legit fractions of 46 flat for the half mile and 1.09.6 for ¾.  Two others from that field are set to compete in the Belmont, and are just as unlikely to catch the top Power horse on June 20.  

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So who can catch the Charlatan, who has top Power in the Grid? First of all, NY Traffic and Shivaree, if they do draw into the field, will be attempting to go with him on the early pace.  That will make it a difficult pace for all three of them if they engage on the front end, and set things up for others that run off the pace.  Grab the Grid at the link below to follow along.

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Favored Tiz The Law will be the primary benefactor of this. In all 5 of his career races, he’s been consistently 2 lengths behind the leader at first call, with his only loss coming by one length on a sloppy track.  Since then he’s rattled off two decisive victories in the Holy Bull G3 and Florida Derby G1 for Sackatoga Stables and Barclay Tagg. The Grid has him at 3^rd in LP, 1^st in Stamina, and 2^nd in Power.

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Since at this point we have to assume the three E8’s and a speed duel up front, we will closely examine LP.  Tops in the category is Maxfield, also 4^th in Power and ranked 4^th in our last Derby Double Dozen, even with only two career races, the 2^nd a G1 win at Keeneland.  He debuted 2020 in style, winning again in the Matt Winn G3 on May 23 for Godolphin and trainer Brendan Walsh. 

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Second in the LP calculation is Sole Volante, who will be a long shot in this field after finishing 2^nd in the Tampa Bay Derby G2.  Not that he did anything wrong, but he was too far back to make the wire in time given the dawdling pace up front.  He’s also 3^rd in Power and Stamina, and was ranked 7^th in that last Derby Dozen.  Patrick Biancone has a serious contender here, especially if the pace scenario holds true.  

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At 3^rd in LP is Tiz The Law who we already covered, and behind him is Dr. Post, a very interesting prospect who may not actually be a long shot at post time.   The main reason being that Todd Pletcher is training him for St. Elias Stables.  Only 3 races into his career, he has been impressive and won a stakes race last out in his typical mid pack stalking style.  He could continue to improve and looms large.

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At 5^th in LP is Max Player, who has done little wrong in his career, breaking his maiden 2^nd time out and then winning the Withers G3 last out in February for owner George Hall and trainer Linda Rice, a top 10 Belmont Park trainer.  Anything over 20-1 is an awesome price for this quality midpack runner.

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That about covers it for the primary contenders.  I doubt if anyone else in the field is capable of winning, especially with the three strong Grade 1 winners we covered.  However, there is another G1 winner we didn’t mention.  Basin, who finished a distant 2^nd to Charlatan last out, won the Hopeful G1 last year at 7f.  Steve Asmussen seems to think he can get another G1 win out of him for Jackpot Farm.

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Speaking of top trainers, we also need to mention Todd actually has 3 in this tentative Belmont field.  Gouverneur Morris made it at #22 in our last Derby Double Dozen, with the thinking that he could do real damage with a hot pace up front.  There was a definite swift pace in the Arkansas Derby, but no speed duel.  Charlatan had it his own way the whole way.  Gov. Morris hung in 3^rd and finished a neck behind Basin.

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Farmington Road is the other Pletcher trainee, and is the sole representative from the other Arkansas Derby Division.  In that, he too had a legit pace to run at, but hung up in 4^th, finishing a distant 7 lengths behind frontrunning Nadal, who is out with an injury.  Before that in the Oaklawn Stakes, he made an impressive run from last place 17 lengths back to pass 11 horses and pick up 2^nd, just ½ length from victory.  A similar run could put him on the board in this field.

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So now that we have truly covered the entire tentative field, let’s go ahead and make the picks.  Keep in mind this is all hypothetical right now, and the selections are dependent on the field as we have it displayed at this time. The odds are also hypothetical and based on various online oddsmakers.  

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Predicted order of finish.

Tiz the Law 2-1

Charlatan 3-1

Maxfield 5-1

Sole Volante 15-1

Dr. Post 10-1

Max Player 25-1

Farmington Road 25-1

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Of course, after the post draw, the field and pace scenario could look vastly different.  I tried to figure out how NY Traffic can hit the board, but he simply won’t be able do it if Charlatan and Shivaree are in the race.  There’s just too much power and late pace in the current tentative field.  I went 7 deep for the super because at least one of those statistically won’t make the field.  One of the top 4 listed will win it.

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But at least we have some great solid long shot specials in there who have a legit chance to hit the board or even win.  Stay tuned as we will update the Grid and picks accordingly after the post draw the week leading up to the Belmont Stakes.  At that point we will add the jockeys and official morning line, and everything will be fine.

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