Weekend Winners Club

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Monday, June 29, 2020.  The Churchill Downs Precap was given for Saturday, June 27 for the big race day including two Breeders Cup Challenge races.  This isn’t Monday morning quarterbacking, our picks, and the Grid upon which they were based, were given for free in the Precap and thus well documented.

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This Report Card shows how our picks did, resulting in a grade at the end.  Payouts are shown for $2WPS, $1 Exacta, 50 cent trifecta, and dime super, for bets that won based on our picks.

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R1 1:00ET 6f D MSW 3 UP FM 79000:  6 3 5 2 7

Result:  6 1 3 2

Recap:  Winner top pick but 3-1 is not betting odds.  1 was a surprise.  No prior speed but top LP so it figured in even at 6f.  The 2-1 favorites finished 3^rd and off the board, so there were good payouts but ended up a wasted betting race.  

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R2 1:34ET 8.5f D OClm 20000 4 UP:  2 3 8 5 1       LSS 5 1

Result:  2 6 7 4

Recap:  2 was heavy favorite and good single for the early pick 4.  Not really a betting race.  

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R3 2:06ET 8f T Clm 50000 4 UP:  1 3 2 4 5 7           LSS 3 2

Result:  3 4 1 5   

Recap:  First of several big hits on the day.  You gotta love the top LSS and 2^nd pick winning at 14-1.  4 ended up at 10-1 and would have been LSS also if that overlay had been previously known.  Thus WPS wagers were made on 3 and 4.  1 was the favorite so no surprise there, he actually finished in dead heat with 4 for second. Good payouts on the top 2.

3 WPS:  30 + 7 + 4.2

3 PS:  3.80 + 3.80

Exacta:  22 + 62

Trifecta:  59.50

Dime 52

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R4 2:38ET 6f D MSW 2 YO  79000:  2 7 9 11 5 1   LSS 1

Result:  7 11 2 5

Recap:  almost a sobering favorite-fest, but still a win. 2 was 8-1 so ended up the top LSS and a WPS bet.  Payouts not great but thanks to 2 the trifecta was OK.

2 Sh:  $4

Exacta:  14

Tri: 37.50

Dime:  20

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R5 3:10ET 9.5f D MSW 3 UP  7900: 3 2 1 6 7 8      LSS 8

Result:  7 3 9 2

Recap:  Having the 7 to win at 6-1 was a good saving grace for this which was otherwise thrown a big wrench in it by 9 who had nothing to like about.  So the greatest part was winning the Pick 4 in which successfully singled the first leg.  We boxed all of the top 5 in exacta for a $3.80 profit.

Exacta:  23.80

Pick 4:  575!!

R6 3:41ET 8.5f D Alw 81000n1x 3 UP FM:  6 3 9 4 5 1         LSS 9 4

Result:  6 5 9 4

Recap:  No surprises here at all with the odds-on favorite winning over our backup selections.  So payouts sucked and we only got the LSS in for 3^rd. 

9 show 3.40

Exacta 9.10

Tri 17.20

Dime 11

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R7 4:12ET 5.5f T Alw 88000nc 3 UP:  5 1 6 7 2 9 3                LSS 3

Result:  6 5 7 8

Recap:  The biggest surprise here was the heavily favored 1 and 1a both finishing off the board.  That gave us good payouts all around. 5 and 6 both ended up at 6-1 so those were the automatic two WPS bets as two of the top three selections. 

6 WPS 15 + 6.60 + 4.80

5 PS 7.20 + 4.20

Exacta 38

Tri 85.50

Dime super:  8 busted it up at 43-1. 

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R8 4:43ET 6f D BshfdMnr-G3 2 YO: 6 7 3 4 1         LSS 7 1

Result:  6 7 5 2

Recap:  Top 2 exactly as called with fav on top of LSS that ended up 16-1.  The reason we picked him that highly was he had top EP and Speed, which he flaunted again setting a wicked pace. 

7 Place Show 6.80 and 4.80

Exacta 10.80

Pick 4:  81. 

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R9 5:15ET 9f D FlrDLisH-G2 4 UP FM: 5 4 1 7 2    LSS 7 2

Result:  5 7 2 4

Recap:  Not surprisingly, the 1-2 fav won.  What was surprising to others not me, was 7 getting 2^nd at 34-1.  7 was 2^nd in EP and top LSS listed.  Great payouts.  2^nd LSS 2 also got in the tri at 25-1.  That’s kinda awesome.  You should have just boxed them here obviously. 4 held on to 4^th after leading most the way.

7 Place Show 10.20 + 5.20

Exacta:  19.50

Trifecta 67

Dime Super 38

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R10 5:47ET 9f D SFoster-G2 4 UP:  5 6 2 7 3 8      LSS 2 7 3

Result:  5 6 7 4

Recap:  The favorites finished 1-2 just like that.  You had to like getting the LSS 7 in at 3^rd for 27-1, making for some otherwise dismal payouts.

7 show:  6.40

Exacta:  6 lol

Tri:  30.40

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R11 6:20ET 9f T Regret-G3 3 YO F:  5 6 9 10 12 13 1 3        LSS 6 9 13 3

Result:  10 5 4 12

Recap:  Again no surprise here, and 10 luckily turned into the top  LSS at 11-1 which meant a WPS bet.  Even the 4 was not a surprise, with 2^nd EP on a turf track favoring speed all day. 9 was top EP and led most of the way but faded.  It was wide open with lots of possibilities, but at least we got the exacta, and… yes that’s right, another Pick 4 and the lowest paying one of the day.

10 WPS:  24.20 + 7.60 + 5.40

Exacta:  39.50

Pick 4:  45

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The final analysis, statistically speaking: 

8 of 10 exactas won.  (Race 2 was not a recommended betting race)

6 of 10 50 cent trifectas won.

4 or 10 dime superfecatas won.

3 of 3 Pick 4’s won for $700.

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The WPS wagers which we made were for $4-10 each so the actual payouts were greater but varied according to the race, and we only bet them on odds of 5-1 or greater, but we did get a couple wins and several place/show payouts for the long shot specials which paid well enough to make money back. 

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As you can see, the real money was made on the vertical wagers, specifically the opening Pick 4 sequence where we correctly singled the first leg in order to open it up in the last one. I would have liked to see more long shot specials actually win, like the one that lost by a nose in the early Pick 4 which would have made the payout 4 digits easily.  So the overall grade is given:  A

As always, you can get the Grid for all major tracks and race days here.

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