Weekend Winners Club

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September 2, 2020.  The Derby Dirty Dozen had to be redone again, a week later, as another rash of defections went through, another pointless horse was added, and a formerly on then off trail again was on again as a last minute entry that wasn’t on anyone’s radar as of last week.  

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By pointless, I mean that there are now two horses in the field who earned no Derby points, even though there are over 70 horses that have earned points this year.  The two are thus pointless, but that doesn’t mean they can’t affect the outcome of the race or even hit the board.

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So we redid the Derby almost dozen, because there are less than 12 even worth ranking at this point.  So we rank the top ten, mostly by removing the withdrawn horses, but also because the predicted pace scenario has changed because of them.  Interesting that the top horses all drew outside somehow.

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Derby Dirty Dozen September 2 2020

Rank	Horse	Sire	Trainer	Points	$takes*	Last	Race
1	Tiz the Law	Constitution	Barclay Tagg	372	$1,972,400	1st	Travers G1 Aug.8
2	Honor A. P.	Honor Code	John Shirreffs	140	$340,000	2nd	Shared Belief Aug.1
3	Authentic	Into Mischief	Bob Baffert	200	$980,000	1st	Haskell G1 July 18
4	Ny Traffic	Cross Traffic	Joseph Saffie Jr	110	$472,820	2nd	Haskell G1 July 18
5	Max Player	Honor Code	Steve Asmussen	60	$337,500	3rd	Travers G1 Aug.8
6	Sole Volante	Karakontie	Patrick Biancone	30	$273,510	6th	Belmont G1 June 20
7	Thousand Words	Pioneerof The Nile	Bob Baffert	83	$297,000	1st	Shared Belief Aug.1
8	Money Moves	Candy Ride	Todd Pletcher	0	$0	2nd	OC62.5k Sar July 25
9	King Guillermo	Uncle Mo	Juan Carlos Avila	90	$317,050	2nd	Ark.Derby G1 May 2
10	South Bend	Algorithms	Stanley Hough	18	$291,902	4th	Travers G1 Aug.8
18	Enforceable	Tapit	Mark Casse	43	$314,550	4th	Blue Grass G2 July 11
18	Major Fed	Ghostzapper	Greg Foley	38	$179,100	2nd	Indy Derby G3 July 8
18	Storm the Court	Court Vision	Peter Eurton	36	$1,273,851	2nd	La Jolla G3(T) Aug.9
18	Attachment Rate	Hard Spun	Dale Romans	35	$93,675	2nd	Ellis Pk Derby Aug.9
18	Finnick the Fierce	Dialed In	Rey Hernandez	25	$121,700	7th	Blue Grass G2 July 11
18	Winning Impression	Will Take Charge	Dallas Stewart	20	$54,822	7th	Ellis Pk Derby Aug.9
18	Necker Island	Hard Spun	Chris Hartman	14	$74,808	3rd	Ellis Pk Derby Aug.9
18	Mr. Big News	Giant's Causeway	Bret Calhoun	0	$129,500	6th	Blue Grass G2 July 11

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17 TIZ THE LAW (3-5)  If he’s not #1 on any other rankings you’re looking at, burn the piece of paper you saw it on and block the site from all your browsers, including the one on your phone. He’s dominated all 4 races this year, adding 3 G1 wins to one he got last year.  His only subpar race is still one that most in this field would be proud of, a narrow 3^rd in a G3 at Churchill last year.  The only chink in his armor thus may be the sloppy sealed track that he had trouble tractioning on that day.

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16 HONOR A.P (5-1)  The most lightly raced top September Derby contender of all time, he still only has 5 lifetime races.  But they were all quality races, with 3 runner-up’s and 2 wins including the G1 Santa Anita Derby, where he made use of a fast pace up front to deliver a devastating closing move.  The fact that he’s been used sparingly is likely because he’s the 3^rd most expensive horse in the field, sold as a yearling for $850 grand.  So now it’s time for him to start paying off that credit card.

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18 AUTHENTIC (8-1)  Again with only 5 lifetime races, 4 this year, and again all quality races, a 2^nd and 4 wins including the Haskell last out.  He did hold off Honor AP in the San Felipe but suffered from a speed duel in the SA Derby and folded but still held 2^nd.  Things are looking up for him this week after further defections.  As the only true frontrunner E8 in the field, he can dictate the pace.  The 5^th most expensive colt in the field, it’s also time for him to provide some ROI.

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15 NY TRAFFIC (20-1)  4^th in Derby points, 4^th in the Derby Grid, and now 4^th in the Dozen.  The only historical scores he missed out on in the Grid were that he’s not a graded stakes winner and his last prep was 7 weeks out.  However, he did finish 2^nd in 3 straight graded races, including the G1 Haskell where he only lost by a nose after bearing down on Authentic down the stretch.  For a near frontrunner, he holds up well in deep stretch, including the 9.5f Louisiana Derby where he went 2^nd gate to wire. 

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2 MAX PLAYER (30-1).  I’ve liked this one all year, in all 3 races, but he keeps improving.  Only 5 starts, but the in the last 3 he followed up a G3 win with 3^rd in the Belmont and Travers G1s.  He has a late running style and is 4^th in Power, 5^th in Stamina, and LP.  That was all under trainer Linda Rice, and now he’s in the care of Steve Asmussen, selected likely for his vast Triple Crown experience.  He could be sitting on a big race, but would like a fast pace scenario up front to make a big closing move.

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12 SOLE VOLANTE (30-1)  Stop gasping.  Yes he’s 15^th  in points, finished 6^th in the Belmont, and doesn’t appear on anyone else’s rankings, but that’s because they don’t have the Grid.  If one bad race defined a career, then people wouldn’t know the names Real Quiet or Charismatic from Triple Crowns past. The fact is he has top LP in the Grid, earning that distinction with 3 straight excellent closing moves before the Belmont. He may have just not been able to get footing in the Big Sandy.  But top LP counts for a LOT in the Derby.  Put it this way, last year’s top two LP were Maximum Security and Country House, in that order.  Ring a bell?

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10 THOUSAND WORDS (15-1)  At last we get to the most expensive horse in the field, he sold at Keeneland as a yearling for $1 million.  Then sent directly to the Baffert barn, where he has been inconsistent and his two biggest wins were in December and Feb.  Since then he’s had only 1 victory in 4 races, going gate to wire in the Shared Belief.  It’s true he beat Honor AP in that race, but setting a slow pace up front was the key.  Considering Baffert as the trainer, the million dollar baby will likely start earning some real money real soon.  

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7 MONEY MOVES (30-1)  Normally an optional claimer with only 3 career races and no stakes experience would never make this list, but this is no normal year.  The fact is, this is the 2^nd most expensive horse in the field at $975k, and he’s put up big efforts for Todd in all 3, winning 2 and missing by a neck while closing in at 9f last out at Saratoga.  If he wins the Derby, all remaining “rules” of Derby champs will have all been broken.  I think he’s too green to win but he could turn some heads on race day, improving again.

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6 KING GUILLERMO (20-1)  He finally makes this list for the first time, only because several horses were withdrawn over the past week.  He seems to be a “wise guy” horse with a lot of backing coming on now, which probably means he’ll do nothing.  I have serious problems with a horse that hasn’t raced in 4 months, but the fact is there isn’t a whole lot of speed in this field anymore, and the horse he couldn’t catch in the Arkansas Derby isn’t running today.  So he’s got a shot to hit the board.

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8 SOUTH BEND (50-1)  The last minute entry is already in the top 10, because dirt or turf, he’s still a good late runner.  With the right ride, he could hit the board.  Unfortunately, he gets Tyler Gaffalione, whom I was hoping would NOT be in this year’s Derby.  At best, he’ll get anxious, knock over several in the stretch, and run up on the heels of Tiz the Law, and fuck it up for everyone.  Let’s just hope nobody has to come off the board this year because of the idiot.  

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If the horse didn’t make the top 10 above, it’s because I just can’t see them winning at all and only a very small chance to hit the board unless Tyler takes out half the field in the stretch.  Stay tuned to Kentucky Derby Central on the menu link for more great articles and analysis, and our 2020 Derby lesson series. Good luck!

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