Weekend Winners Club

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September 2, 2020.  In this edition of the Kentucky Derby lesson series, we shall cover the major prep races leading up to the Derby, and their inherent relativism.  We will focus on the Baffert Era which began in 1997 when he won 2 straight Kentucky Derbies. 

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Obviously, the final prep race for these contestants is important to tune up for the Derby, but it is also a very important factor in determining if they can actually win the big one. It may surprise you that the last 9 to win the roses had ALL won their final prep, and in 8 cases it was a Big 6 final prep.

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In the 23 race span from 1997-2019, the Kentucky Derby winner had won their final prep 65% of the time, and another 26% were runners up in their final prep, making it an astounding 91% that were top 2 in their final prep.  Only 2 weren’t, and they finished 4^th in their final prep.

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In only 4 of the 23 races, was the final prep for the winner not a Big 6 Prep.  To define that, it’s one of the 6 Grade 1 or 2 races leading up to the Derby.  In modern terms since the point system was invented, it’s a G1 or G2 worth 100 points (or more) leading up to the Run for the Roses.

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Now this year, obviously the Big 6 races are a bit different, because of the fact that we’re running in September, but the same rules apply.  Check out the graphic below because a picture is worth 25 Kentucky Derby champions.

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For this year, we simply substituted the last 6 100 point races, and in this case the Belmont was worth 150.  Note that in the Arkansas Derby we only included the runners up of the two divisions since neither champion is racing right now, and in fact one was later disqualified. They were both Baffert horses. J

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This grid also shows that the runner up also finished 1 or 2 in their final prep the vast majority of the time.  78% of the horses running 1 and 2 in the Kentucky Derby also ran 1 or 2 in their final prep, and in 83% of the races, their final prep was a Big 6. 

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Thus, a major predictor of a winner or runner up finish in the Kentucky Derby, is that they finished 1^st or 2^nd in their final Prep, and the value increases if it was a Big 6 prep, which is why it is a critical criteria in the Derby Grid.  Only 5 horses qualify on both counts this year. Quod Erat Demonstrandum.

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To get the Kentucky Derby Grid with over 80 historical, pedigree, and critical criteria, check here.

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