Weekend Winners Club

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September 3, 2020.  In today’s Derby lesson we will be analyzing the performance figures for the Kentucky Derby contestants.  Performance or speed figures indicate how well a horse performed in their prior races, and while some PF’s are better than others, none of them are infallible.

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We will primarily look at the Grid PF’s since that’s what we manufacture here, but also included are Beyers because they are publicly available for the Derby horses on the DRF site. Beyers are the oldest type of speed figures ever made, and still have some relevance today.  

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Check out the mini-grid below.  The Grid PF’s are labeled PF1, 2, etc, appropriately. A full Grid has 10 past races and composites on the right.  For this purpose, we have Beyers on the right labeled with By1,2 3.  The full legend is available below the Grid for the color coding etc. 

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What stands out the most is the last race PF and Beyer for Tiz the Law.  It’s bold because it was within ½ furlong of the Derby distance.  In this case it was the Travers so it’s the exact same distance.  He would have been the favorite without that race, but that’s the reason he is so heavily favored now.

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The only other triple digit PF was by Honor AP in the SA Derby, although Authentic was very close in the Haskell.  For the Beyers, nobody else had one over 102 as you can see, but 5 of them have reached triple digits, so they are considered Beyer qualifiers for the Derby win.

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Beyer Elimination Method.  The last column shows the results of this elimination method.  You take the highest low BF in the last 3 races as the comparative figure.  The other horses must be able to match or beat this in order to be a BEM contender.

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Authentic has the top low BF of 98 so that’s what the others must beat.  The BEM column on the right shows which ones are BEM contenders with a Y.  That added another 3 contenders that didn’t have triple digit BF’s, so that didn’t narrow it down, but it gave us some more key horses to use in our exotics.  Because you’re not going to use just 5 horses in your super are you?

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What I propose to narrow down the champ is a modified Grid Elimination Method (GEM*) which has a good ring to it.  Take the best 3 of the last 4 races and use the highest low Grid PF of that set as the standard.  Now they have to beat or match the 99 by Tiz The Law, which gives you only 3 other possible winners.

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You could do the same thing with the Beyers and do a BEM*, and get the same results plus the addition of Thousand Words, in other words the same ones that have 3 digit BF’s.  I think the main reason his last BF is so high is because he beat Honor AP, but the Grid is not as impressed by that race and neither are Bris or Timeform.  

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Needless to say, I won’t be discluding 1000 Words from my exotics, because he cost a million bucks and is trained by Baffert.  I will also be including the others that check the BEM box at various spots in the exotics. 

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One revelation by looking at the Grid, is that the best 4 horses are filling up the last 4 post positions, unless you count the former million dollar baby.  I’ve never seen the posts shape up in this manner before.  Combined with the fact that 3 of them are frontrunning types, it shall be very interesting.

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As with other methods in this Derby lesson series, we are able to narrow it down to 4 possible winners and a few other key horses to use in the exotics.  Combined with those other aspects, is how we arrive at our final exotics.

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Thus endeth today’s lesson.  Stay tuned to this same channel for tomorrow’s surprise lesson.

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You can get the full Derby Grid with much more information and composite figures here.  It’s also a great time to join the WWC because if you join this week, you will automatically get all the Derby, Oaks, and Preakness materials, and everything else in between, including great stakes racing at Saratoga, Santa Anita, and Kentucky Downs, all other major tracks.  Check out the options here.

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