Weekend Winners Club

.

September 4, 2020.  It’s only a day before the Kentucky Derby, so it’s time to get all your horses in a row so you can avoid the mad scramble and get your bets in ahead of time. Today we take a look at pedigree and how these horses should stack up.

.

.

We’re going to cover all 18 contestants fastly and furiously, so look at the following chart first to see everything in a nutshell before we continue. You have the horse listed with the sire, sireline, dam, and dosage profile. Then the sire offspring average win distance, same for dam, and mud win% for sire crop.

.

.

In past years, we were heavily focused in on the RAN sireline, which is still very relevant, but AP Indy got on the board 2 years in a row in 2013, In Excess got one on the board, and Storm Cat finally, posthumously, had a Derby winner from his sireline with Justify. 

.

There were only 3 RAN sireline winners in the last 7 years, but still 56% of Derby winners starting in 1995. Now take a look at this chart where you can see the sireline from every Triple Crown Race winner from 1995- present to see what I’m talking about. 

.

.

What you can discern is that the AP Indy sireline is now just as legit as that of RAN, and with the other Northern Dancer winners, the Storm Cat sireline is not just for sprinters anymore.  What typically matters more for distance is the mares they mate them to. 

.

Thus, the average winning distance is a telling matter.  If you were to just look at the dosage profile and AWD’s, you would probably just assign Mr Big News the win.  The speed figures tell a different story, but keep in mind that his mare is in Europe, where her offspring are running 1.5 to 2 mile turf races.

.

For an all American pedigree, it’s hard not to like Sole Volante.  Storm Cat on top and a Kingmambo (sire of Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid) mare on bottom.  Bred for distance, and was the best closer in the field before having a bad day at the Belmont Stakes, ironically. 

.

You have to like the MAW of Tiz the Law as well, even if his dosage is missing some classic points, those stallions simply haven’t registered yet on the scale, because he’s literally a proven winner in G1 races at 9 and 10f at  this point.  The Travers proved he doesn’t have any apparent distance problem.  

.

What you have to keep in mind with the dosage points nowadays, is that horses are retiring to stud so early now, and it takes a few years for them to get points in the dosage index, because those points are based on their crop performances.  Which is why the AWD is probably more accurate in a pinch.

.

Also, in the far right column we have included the 2017 stud fee of their sires, which is a good indicator of what experienced horsemen think about their sires.  In this case, the two most expensive sires are both horses that I wouldn’t bet on to win, and one may scratch I’m hearing.

.

The third most expensive sire also has the shortest dam’s crop AWD of any in the field, and is not one that I believe can succeed in a G1 at 10f.  The two tied for 4^th in 2017 sire stud fee are also two that I wouldn’t bet on to win the Derby. 

.

The conclusion is that they all have nice pedigrees, and those with the best pedigree on paper aren’t the same as those who have been the best on the track so far.  Look at NY Traffic, sire tied for 2^nd lowest stud fee in 2017, and he’s one of the top contenders and point earners. How’s that for insight?

.

All of this information, and much more, is included in the Kentucky Derby Grid, with a limited amount still set for sale this week. It’s also a great time to join the Weekend Winners Club, since your first month gets you all Derby and Preakness materials and everything in between.  No hassle cancels, just login to Paypal and click cancel whenever you want. One full month access still guaranteed.

.

Trackback URI | Comments RSS