Powered by Jasper Roberts - Blog

Weekend Winners Club

Sep 06 2020

Derby Day Recap: You Should Have Used the Grid. $2800 Pick 4.

.

Sunday, September 6, 2020.  Hindsight is 2020 this year, especially when you cheated yourself out of the best PP’s in horse racing and missed out on $thousands in winnings, because you didn’t want to make a $9 investment in racing information and instead forked over hundreds to the track instead of winning.

.

Yesterday I just watched in amazement as race after race, the Grid provided winning exotic wagers. After the first 3 races that had short fields and relatively short priced winners, nothing over 4-1, which there’s nothing anyone can do anything about, there were 2 more races with favorite winning. Regardless, the early pick 4 still paid an easy $178 and got the ball rolling.

.

Download the Churchill Saturday Grid with results filled in, to follow along.

.

Then the fireworks began.  Check out the results below.

R6 1:45ET 7f D Alw 100000n1x 3 UP 

Winner #2 8-1, 1st in EP and Speed, also 2nd in Power and Stamina, and my personal 2nd choice.

.

R7 2:20ET 8.5f D OClm 62500n2x 3 UP 

Winner #8 4-1, Top LP, 3rd in Stamina and Power
Runnerup #9 also 4-1, 1st in Power and Speed

.

R8 2:55ET 8.5f T AmerTurf-G2 3 YO 

Winner #8 9-2, 2nd in LP, Stam and Power
Runnerup #1 11-1, Top 3 4 or 5 across the board

.

R9 3:35ET 8f D PDayMile-G2 3 YO 

Favoritism won at 3-1

.

R10 4:07ET 8f D Iroquois-G3 2 YO 

Winner #2 24-1, nobody saw it coming.  Fortunately Pick 4 started in race 11.

.

R11 4:39ET 8f T DstfTfMl-G2 4 UP FM

Winner #6 at 8-1.  Top LP and Stamina, 3rd in Power. Gotta love the Pick4 starting with that.

.

R12 5:17ET 7f D DctyDst-G1 4 UP FM

Winner #4 at 4-1, 2nd in LP and Stamina, 2nd best PF overall.

.

R13 5:50ET 9f T TurfClsc-G1 4 UP 

Top LP and favorite faltered to 4th, but that’s why we have 2 and 3 LP, which finished 1st and 3rd.
Winner #4 8-1.  3rd LP 4th Stamina, highest priced Chad Brown Trainee, others finished 3rd and 4th
Runner up #1 5-1.  1st in Power, Speed, 3rd Stamina
3rd #3 5-1.  2nd in LP and Stamina, 3rd in Power

.

R14 7:01ET 10f D KyDerby-G1 3 YO 

Winner #18 8-1.  Top EP, 2nd in Speed and Power, 4th Stamina
Runnerup #17 3-5. 1st Speed Power Stamina, 2nd LP
4th place 7-1.  3rd in every category across the board.

.

Authentic took issue to Baffert saying he had the mind of a child.

If you examine 3rd place Mr. Big News by looking at the full Derby Grid, you can easily see that he has the best classic pedigree.  His classic and total dosage points destroy the rest of the field, and he did win a 9f stakes race this year. So good enough reason to wheel him down there, but better yet just wheel all at the bottom of the Trifecta, because you knew the 3 main key horses, the same ones we were talking all week, the same that finished 1st, 2nd, and 4th.

Derby contender pedigrees.

.

Getting the Derby trifecta or super would have to take some crafty wagering, based on experience.   I can tell you that the 50 cent trifecta payout of $656 was one of the easiest ever.  The cost was reasonable too.  Every year there’s a horse breaking into the trifecta or super, or even exacta at long odds, and sometimes it’s hard to make a case for, like this year. 

.

Last year Country House surprised everyone but us.  He was 2nd in LP and was our long shot special, ranked in the Derby Dozen.  The main problem was the taking down of top LP Maximum Security, leaving us without a well deserved and well paying trifecta there, and instead only a WPS.  The year before that, an 85-1 Instilled Regard completed the super and while not highly regarded,he was 4th in LP, but the top 3 were very obvious. The list goes on, there’s a super bomb every year.

Back to this year, we just pointed out that there was only one surprise winner on the day, in the Iroquois G3 with the 24-1 winner.  But that was race 10, and the late pick 4 didn’t start until race 11.  It paid $70 GRAND for the 50 cent bet.  You can’t look at the Derby day Grid provided and honestly say there’s no way you could have got that.  The early pick 4 was very easy and paid $178.  The middle pick 4 was not much harder and paid $600.  So you should have had a good trifecta bankroll going into the Derby.

.

The best recommendation I have going forward, is if you don’t know how, first learn how to use the Grid, so you can start raking in some of these rolling wagers and other exotics.  You can actually learn for free, since there’s a learning page and at least one free Grid issued for a track every week.  This week’s free Grid is for Del Mar today, who will be running their own Derby as a Grade 3 race on turf.

.

The learning page on the top menu, or left menu on your phone’s browser will help you learn what color codes and abbreviations mean.  It’s real easy once you get the hang of it. It’s still a great time to join the club, with the Preakness coming up in less than month and then the Breeders’ Cup a month after that.  Check out all the options here.

No responses yet

Trackback URI | Comments RSS

Leave a Reply