Weekend Winners Club

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September 24, 2010.  It’s Pre-Preakness week, but we have a list of probables for the Preakness, so it’s a good time for an early precap of the possible contenders and their past performances.  It’s time to start narrowing down the field of 15 before we actually know the final field.

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There are only 3 Kentucky Derby contenders in this first ever October Preakness which will be held next week on the 3^rd.  The Derby winner Authentic, who sets up perfectly for this race, 3^rd place finisher Mr. Big News, and NY Traffic who finished 8^th with no real excuses.

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We’re about to do some handicapping using the best handicapping tool known to man, the Grid, so we can look at PF’s and aggregates.  Grab the secret free early Preakness Grid here to follow along. People pay money for this, so don’t tell anyone you got it free.

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It’s really too early to do pace handicapping, because that depends on the final field.  For example, the Kentucky Derby field initially had a lot of speed in it, until one by one most of the speed mysteriously withdrew, leaving it open for another front running victory by a Baffert trainee.  By the end of Derby week, Authentic was the only E8 left in the field.

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Similarly, the current Preakness field is packed with front running speed, but that is contingent of course, on Authentic, NY Traffic, and Swiss Skydiver all participating, and at least one will probably not make the final field.  Art Collector will likely rate behind the front runners unless they’re putting him to sleep, and Happy Saver has not run on the lead in any of his 3 races.

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Speaking of which, the obvious key horses in the Preakness are the 3 Kentucky Derby contenders.  Statistics show that in every year starting in 1997, if the Preakness winner had run in the Kentucky Derby, they finished in the top 8, which confirms all 3 of our Derby contenders. 

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But the stats also show that 1 of every 4 or 5 Preakness winners did not run in the Derby, and in the recent six year span, the majority of 2^nd and 3^rd place finishers did not run in the Derby.  In fact, 9 of 12 such ITM finishers did not run in the Derby, whereas 5 of the 6 champs DID run in the Derby.

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Which brings us back to Happy Saver.  Fresh, good PF’s, good LP, the right running style, coached by Todd Pletcher, and coming off a win in the official Preakness Prep, the Federico Tesio at Laurel in September.  Only 3 career races but all wins from just off the pace.

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And of course we need to mention Swiss Skydiver, who proved she has no problem with the distance with the 10f Alabama win at Saratoga.  It’s true that she did not win the Kentucky Oaks, but chasing the leader around for 9f, she was still trying and lost by a length.

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Art Collector chased Swiss Skydiver in the Blue Grass and not only caught her, but left her in the dust by 3.5 lengths.  He is without a doubt the most serious non-Derby runner in the field, as evidenced by his 5 race win streak including the two 100-point Derby preps. He also has top LP and Stamina in the Grid.

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Some other Preakness contenders we haven’t mentioned are Dr Post and Thousand Words.  Again, neither ran in the Kentucky Derby, but both have the PF’s to prove they could be up for the job.  Dr Post fits the bill of the late runner that finds its way into the money, as does Mr. Big News.

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Two more that require mentioning are the top LP horses.  We mentioned Art Collector as top LP, but he also runs on the front end.  Mystic Guide is 2^nd in LP and believes he has the right to win this after a Jim Dandy win.  Tied for 3^rd in LP are Jesus’ Team, 3^rd in the Dandy, and Pneumatic, who qualified for the Derby but they took his name out of the hat before the post draw.

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The main reason that last year’s Preakness results were so out of the norm, is that NONE of the top 4 Kentucky Derby runners ran in the Preakness, the first known time in history that has happened.  So far in this field we have 2 of them running including the champ, so things already look more normal.

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Assuming the field as it is now, which is somewhat normal, it’s tough not to like Authentic and Art Collector as the top winning, followed by some combination of the others mentioned above as contenders. We will have to wait for the final field to make some more accurate picks.

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Get the Grid for the Preakness and all the great Pimlico racing on October 3 here.

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